1 FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years Presented at the 30 th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference By Robert L. Bowles Manager, Statistics and Forecasts, FAA March 17, 2005
2 : : Domestic Passengers Up 6.7% in Passenger Level Down 2.2 % from 2000
3 : : International Passengers Up 11.7% in Passenger Level Down 4.7 % from 2000
4 : : Domestic Yield Down 18.3% Since Yield Level
5 : : Low Cost & Regional Carriers Increase Market Share
6 : : Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles Up Almost 5% in RTM Level
7 : : Commercial Air Carriers Have Lost $25 Billion Since 2000
8 : : General Aviation Hours Flown Have Bottomed Out 2000 Hours Flown Level Down 9 % from 2000
9 : : FAA/Contract Tower Instrument Operations Up 2% in Instrument Operations Level Down 7.2 % From 2000
10 : : Recovery In Activity Not Uniform Among All Airports LAS SLC DEN SAN MSP ORD MDW DTW IAH CVG FLL LGA MEM ATL CLT DCA PHL In 2004 Commercial Operations at 17 of 35 Major U.S.Airports Already At 2000 Levels
11 : : U.S. Economy Grows An Average Of 3.2% Annually
12 : : World Economy Grows An Average Of 3.2% Annually $34,821 $37,142 $38,338 $50,825 $35,981
13 : : Energy Prices Spike in 2005 Then Fall Over Next 3 Years All Signs Point to Continued Recovery
14 : : Domestic Real Yield Falls An Average Of 1.7% Annually
15 : : Domestic Passengers Return to Pre 9/11 Levels in 2005
16 : : International Passengers Return to Pre 9/11 Levels in 2005
17 Latin America Pacific Canadian Transborder Atlantic : : Every World Travel Region Returns to 2000 Levels by 2006
18 : : Total Passengers Exceed One Billion In 2015
19 : : By 2016 Low Cost and Regional Carrier Domestic Share ≈ 55% Passenger Market Share Low Cost & Regionals/ Commuters Low Cost & Regionals/ Commuters Large Network Carriers Large Network Carriers % ≈ 55%
20 : : Regional Jet Fleet Grows 38% Over Next Three Years
21 : : Low Cost Carriers Drive Mainline Carrier Fleet Growth
22 : : Cargo Revenue Ton Miles Increase 82% By 2016
23 : : General Aviation Hours Flown Up 20% By 2016
24 : : By 2016 Instrument Operations Up 29% At FAA/Contract Towers
25 : : Eight Additional Airports Exceed 2000 Levels by 2006 LAS SLC DEN SAN MSP ORD MDW DTW IAH CVG FLL LGA MEM ATL CLT DCA PHL HNL IAD BWI MCO TPA JFK PHX EWR Commercial Operations at 25 Large U.S.Airports Will Exceed 2000 Levels By 2006
26 : : Implications For The FAA Congestion On Rise As Demand Returns Several Airports Already Experiencing Delays Change in Aircraft Mix Makes Future Workload More Complex Rapid Growth in RJs Strong Growth in GA Business Jets Falling Yields Pose Risk To Matching FAA Funding Needs With Demand For FAA Services
27 : : Forecast Risks Deteriorating Financial Condition Of Legacy Carriers Sustained Higher Fuel Prices Increasing Delays At U.S. Airports
28 : : Forecast Summary Recovery of Traffic Continues In 2005 And Beyond Commercial Carrier and Domestic Passengers Return To Pre 9/11 Levels Commercial Carrier Passengers Exceed One Billion in 2015 Low Cost Carriers Increase Share => Falling Fares Rising Demand For FAA Services Downside Risks Are Significant