A stocks and flows approach An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 1. the principal domains Society and Economy Greenhouse.

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Presentation transcript:

A stocks and flows approach An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 1. the principal domains Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Atmospheric Concentrations

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 2.different development paths give rise to (1) different levels and mixes of anthropogenic emissions that accumulate and (2) other environmental stresses on human and natural systems Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions Non-climate change stresses

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 3. atmospheric concentrations lead to the enhanced greenhouse effect and effects on human and natural systems e.g. damage from air pollution and acid rain Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhouse effect Non-climate change stresses Air pollution Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 4. air-temperature and sea-level rises imply e.g. higher risks of floods and droughts Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhouse effect Climate change stresses Non-climate change stresses Air pollution Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 5. Various feedbacks and interactions modify the effects Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhouse effect Feedbacks Climate change stresses Non-climate change stresses Interactions Air pollution Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions Feedbacks

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 6. changes in the natural systems alter socio- economic development Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhouse effect Feedbacks Climate change stresses Non-climate change stresses Interactions Air pollution Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions Environmental impacts Feedbacks

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 7. adaptation reduces the environmental impacts of climate change Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhouse effect Feedbacks Climate change stresses Non-climate change stresses Interactions Air pollution Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions Environmental impacts Adaptation Feedbacks

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 8. Immediate mitigation effect - reduced emissions Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhoue effect Feedbacks Climate change stresses Non-climate change stresses Interactions Air pollution Mitigation Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions Environmental impacts Adaptation Feedbacks

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 9. mitigation then reduces the greenhouse effect and local air pollution. Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhouse effect Feedbacks Climate change stresses Non-climate change stresses Interactions Air pollution Ancillary benefits Mitigation Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions Environmental impacts Adaptation Feedbacks

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 10. mitigation also reduces climate change stresses and finally reduces the need to adapt. Society and Economy Greenhouse gases Aerosols & precursors Main drivers are economic growth technology population and governance Air and sea temperatures Precipitation Snow and ice cover Land use Food and water systems Ecosystems &biodiversity Animal and plant health Climate System Natural Systems Enhanced greenhouse effect Feedbacks Climate change stresses Non-climate change stresses Interactions Air pollution Ancillary benefits Mitigation Atmospheric Concentrations Anthropogenic emissions Environmental impacts Adaptation Feedbacks