Carbon Management for Sustainable Development: An Examination of Potential Technological Transition Paths of the Saudi Arabian System of Innovation to a Cleaner Energy Economy Presented by: Noura Mansouri PhD Student Materials Department Unit for Strategic Studies in Nanotechnology Technology Exploitation and Management Group Queen Mary, University of London United Kingdom Globelics 4th PhD School at Lisbon, May 2007

Outline 1.Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development a. Carbon emissions since the industrial era b. The greenhouse effect and global warming e. Sustainable development 2.Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration a. CO 2 capture b. CO 2 transport c. CO 2 sequestration d. CCS system 3.Theories: Innovation and Transition a. Systems of Innovation b. Transition 4.Methodology: Saudi Arabia as a Case Study a. Research methods b. Illustrative Saudi National Systems of Innovation c. Carbon management in transition paths

Research Questions What might be the role of carbon management technologies in facilitating a transition in Saudi Arabia’s energy economy towards sustainability? What might be the transition paths in implementing carbon management technologies onto Saudi Arabia’s energy sector and industries over time? How might Saudi Arabia’s energy policies spur innovation in carbon management technologies?

Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Carbon Dioxide Emissions Historical recorded carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial era

Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Greenhouse Gas Effect Greenhouse effect and global warming

Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Climate Change Environmental Linkages

Definition “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” - Brutland Commission Live responsibly Balances the three keys of sustainable development: economy, environment and society. Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Sustainable Development

Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Keys of Sustainable Development

Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Sustainable Development

Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS Definition: CCS is a process consisting of the separation of CO2 from industrial and energy-related sources, transport to a storage location and long-term isolation from the atmosphere. The technology of CCS constitutes of three stages: Carbon Capture Carbon Transport Carbon Sequestration/Storage Capture of CO2 can be applied to large point sources. The CO2 would then be compressed and transported for storage in geological formations, in the ocean, in mineral carbonates, or for use in industrial processes. IPCC, 2005

Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Carbon Sequestration - Geological Prospective areas in sedimentary basins where suitable saline formations, oil or gas fields, or coal beds may be found.

Technology:Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS System

The net reduction of emissions to the atmosphere through CCS depends on the fraction of CO2 captured, the increased CO2 production resulting from loss in overall efficiency of power plants or industrial processes due to the additional energy required for capture, transport and storage, any leakage from transport and the fraction of CO2 retained in storage over the long term.

Technology:Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS System Technology Status

Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS System Global Locations Location of sites where activities relevant to CO2 storage are planned or under way.

Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Mineral Carbonation

National System of Innovation: Freeman, Lundvall, Nelson, Edquist, Metcalfe etc. Sectoral System of Innovation Franco Malerba Technological System of Innovation Thomas Hughes, Bo Carlsson Theories: Innovation and Transitions Systems of Innovation

Innovation System framework to be applied is an intersection: Theories: Innovation and Transitions Systems of Innovation

Theories: Innovation and Transitions Transition Technological Transition: Multi-level Perspective (Kemp and Geels, 2004) Socio-technical System (Geels, 2002, 2006)

Theories: Innovation and Transitions Transition Source: Geels, 2002

Methodology: Case Study Why Saudi Arabia? World’s largest oil reserves: Benefit from the global carbon lock-in Sustainable oil demands Tackle the environmental concern by pursuing “cleaner” energy Sustainable Development - should be the ultimate objective internationally Retain a strong position in the global energy markets

Methodology: Research Methods Data Collection Primary Data: Governmental reports Existing literature and case studies Secondary Data: Saudi government authorities, companies, and academics Semi-structured in-depth interviews correspondence Phone interviews

Time Innovation Trajectory Defined Trajectory Disturbed Radical Innovation CCS Diminishing Returns to Innovation Incremental Innovations Early Optimization Hydrocarbons Climate Change Policies KSA NSIKSA NSI Markets Science Policy Technol ogy Culture ? Cleaner Hydrocarbons Fuel cell Nuclear fusion Solar PV Oil Depletion Oil Prices Geopolitics KSA NSI Energy Sectoral SI Technol ogical SI Landscape Developments Macro level Socio- technical Regime Meso level Technological Niches Micro level Degree of maturity and deployment of potential Systematic application of innovation criteria Wind KEY CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration KSA: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia NSI: National Systems of Innovation SI: Systems of Innovation PV: Photovoltaic

Methodology: Theory Application An Illustrative Technological Transition of the Saudi Arabian’s NSI to a Cleaner Energy Economy KSA NSI Markets Science Policy Technology Culture KSA NSI Energy Sectoral SI Technologi cal SI

Methodology: Theory Application An Illustrative Technological Transition of the Saudi Arabian’s NSI to a Cleaner Energy Economy Time Innovation Trajectory Defined Trajectory Disturbed Radical Innovation CCS Diminishing Returns to Innovation Incremental Innovations Early Optimization Hydrocarbons Climate Change Policies ? Cleaner Hydrocarbons Fuel cell Nuclear fusion Solar PV Oil Depletion Oil Prices Geopolitics Landscape Developments Macro level Socio-technical Regime Meso level Technological Niches Micro level Wind

Actors and Linkages in the Saudi Arabian NSI (Source: Author, derived from OECD, 1999)

Conclusion 1.Expected Theorertical Contributions 1. The merging of NSI + SSI + TSI in Transition Paths 2.Expected Practical Contributions 1.National System of Innovation in Saudi Arabia 2.CCS Technological System of Innovation 3.Saudi Energy Sectoral Innovation System 4.Transition Paths to Sustainability in Saudi Arabia

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