CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 1 Patterns and Trends in International Trade of ICT products Friedrich von Kirchbach, Chief, Market Analysis Section

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 2 UNCTAD WTO Platform for negotiating multilateral trade rules and commitments, monitoring implementation and settlement of disputes. Global forum for the treatment of development and the interrelated issues of trade, finance, services, investment, technology and insti- tutional aspects of enterprise development involving govern- ments and non-governmental actors. Technical cooperation arm of WTO and UNCTAD for operational enterprise- oriented capacity building, for trade promotion and export development. ITC

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 3 PRIMARY DATA DETAILED DATA ON THE WEB ANALYTI- CAL DATA ON WEB SINGLE- CLIENT STUDIES Full range of tools TRADE FLOWS MARKET ACCESS DATA BUSINESS INFORMATION Inquiry Reply Service Part III - Overview of ITC ’s Market Analysis Tools ( ITC’s market analysis tools

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 4 World market for ICT products in 2001: Euro 2.2 trillion Source: EITO Update 2001 *incl. Eastern Europe

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 5 World-wide ICT markets annual growth by region, , % Source: EITO Update 2001 Market value 2001: billion Euro

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 6 Underachievers Champions Losers in declining markets Achievers in adversity National Export Growth vs. International Demand LossesGains Change in world market share Positiv e International demand: World Trade Growth Negative

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 7 Note: the area of the circles correponds to the export value of the product group for ITC partners. See explanatory sheet for details. Source: ITC calculations based on COMTRADE statistics.

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 8 Share of developing countries in world trade of ICT products: 25 % of exports 35 % of imports

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 9 Assessing national export performance and competitiveness by major sectors: Trade Performance Index

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 10 ITC’s home page Country Approach

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 12

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 13 Trade Performance Index National Export TradeMaps National Import TradeMaps Trade Simulation Model TradeSim Reliability of trade data Environmental TradeMaps Protection in partner countries by major sectors Country MAPs

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 14 Trade Performance Index The Trade Performance Index comprises a set of 24 quantitative indicators benchmarking the export performance of 184 countries. The TPI: 3ranks 14 different product sectors in each country 3summarizes performance indicators into a Current Index and a Change Index 3sheds light on comparative and competitive advantages 3positions the major export sectors of all countries on a global competitiveness ladder.

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 15 Trade Performance Current Index: Electronics, USA Indicator Value of net exports, 2000 Unit US$ b Value -21 Rank 92 Per-capita exports, 2000 US$/ inhabitant32323 Share in world market, 2000Per cent151 Product diversification No of major products850 Market diversification No of major exp.markets Current Index: in 92 countries

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 16 Trade Performance Index USA 92 th (worst ) 1 st (best) Ranking among 92 countries Large sector Electronics Small sector 21 Ranking of international competitiveness in terms of static indicators (Current Index) and dynamic indicators (Change Indicator)

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 17 Change in world market share: Electronics, USA Indicator Absolut change of world market share Unit per centage points p.a. Value 0.36 Rank 4 4 Ranking: Change in world market share in 92 countries

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 18 Trade Performance Index USA 92 h (worst ) 1 st (best) Ranking among 92 countries Large sector Electronics Small sector 21 Ranking of international competitiveness in terms of static indicators (Current Index) and dynamic indicators (Change in world market share) 4

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 19 Trade Performance Change Index: Electronics, USA Change Index: Indicator Change of world market share Unit per cent p.a. Value 2.87 Rank 32 Trend of import coverage by exports Matching dynamics of world demand correlation39 Change in product diversification concentration measures75 Change in market diversification concentration measures58 50 in 92 countries per cent p.a239

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 20 Trade Performance Index USA 85 th (worst ) 1 st (best) Ranking among 85 countries Large sector Electronics Small sector 20 Ranking of international competitiveness in terms of static indicators (Current Index) and dynamic indicators (Change Index) 4 Change Index: 50

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 21

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 22 A. Changes in trade performance in absolute terms: change in world market share: Taiwan realized the largest annual increase 96/00 in percentage points, and became the 4 th largest exporter in 00 change in Current Index 00 to 99: Overall continuity, exceptions: Singapore from 13 to 5 and France from 2 to 10 electronics

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 23 B. Changes in trade performance in relative terms: total and decomposed relative change in world market share 96 to 00: Poland, with exports of $ 2b in 2000, increased its world market share by an annual 1.6%, consisting of: in competitiveness in initial product specialization in initial market specialization in adaptation electronics

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 24

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 25 B. Changes in trade performance in relative terms: Change Index: Philippines comes out on top of the ranking based on five change indicators, due to - a 23 % annual increase of its market share reaching 3.2 % of the world market - the best ranking concerning specialization in the most dynamic products in the sector electronics

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 26 Current role of developing cntries in trade: most pronounced in office machinery and electronic components (in both sectors 5 Asian NIEs among top ten according to Current TPI) much more limited role of Europeans (only UK among the top eight) much less in telecommunications equipment (2 NIEs in top 10) no developing countries in electrical machinery Results in ICT report

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 27 Changing role of developing countries: among top ten countries in terms of Change Index for the four sectors electronic components, computers, telecommunications equipment and electrical machinery, most frequently mentioned are: Asian developing countries (14 times) Eastern Europe & Russia (11 times) Latin America (4 times) Africa (1 time) Results in ICT report

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 28 Detailed assessment of national trade performance for specific products: Interactive TradeMap

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 29 Interactive TradeMap ITC’s Interactive TradeMap provides... Value of exports and imports Quantities Growth trends Market shares Rankings according to a variety of criteria Tariffs and non-tariff barriers For each product and partner country in a fully interactive environment

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 30 Based on COMTRADE - the United Nations Statistics Division database - covering 90% of world trade reported by nearly 100 trading nations - tariff and NTB data provided by 145 countries directly or through UNCTAD Covers over 5,000 Harmonized System products countries and territories - includes non-reporting countries using mirror statistics How? Interactive TradeMap Web access with username and password

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 31 Trade statistics of uneven quality Services not covered Up-dating twice a year – time lag between one and two years Product detail only to the HS 6-digit level Limitations

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 32 Enhancing the transparency of market access barriers for trade policy makers and the business community: Market Access Maps

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 33 Basic Features of Market Access Maps Coverage (four dimensions): 145 importing markets 220 exporting countries Products at the tariff line level Protection instruments: MFN ad-valorem and specific tariffs, tariff quotas, anti-dumping duties, prohibitions, technical and environmental norms

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 34 Basic Features of Market Access Maps Analytical functions: Takes into account all regional trading arrangements Calculates ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) for combination of ad-valorem and specific tariffs and tariff quotas Allows for aggregation to any level using trade weighting based on imports of reference groups of countries to avoid distortions

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 35 E-Trade Bridge for SMEs ITC

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 36 Building national capacities to increase awareness and e-competence of SME managers in e-trade Developing e-products and services for SME’s and trade support institutions Securing exchange and cooperation among national and international e-trade related initiatives Program thrust

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 37  E-trade bridge kick-off meeting  Strategy designers and managers training programme  National training capacity building programme Components for building national capacities

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 38 Kenya Kick-off Meeting 1.National e-trade bridge task force creation 2.Preparation of e-map and e-balance sheet 3.Stake-holders deliberations 4.National e-bridge platform installation 5.E-action plan preparation 6.Win With the Web program launching 7.WWW task group training 8.SMEs screening 9.Awareness campaign launching 10."Best practice" cases promotion Kick-off Meeting Phases

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 39 ITC PRACTICAL GUIDES Answering Exporters’ Frequently Asked Questions Trade Secrets: The Export Answer Book How to Approach Banks: A guide for exporters Secrets of Electronic Commerce: A guide for SMEs Trade in Services: An answer book for SMEs International Trade Rules: An answer book for SMEs Export Quality Management: An answer book for SMEs

CID, 26 March 2002 Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products 40 For more information, please contact us at ITC or under Thank you for your attention.