The challenge of climate change: How can the South adapt? Åpent seminar: Klima sett fra sør 18. September 2007 Siri Eriksen GECHS associate Department of Sociology and Human Geography University of Oslo

I. The challenge of climate change 1.Climate change poses serious threats and challenges 2.Climate change interacts with many other types of changes 3.Vulnerability to climate change is differential 4.Indigenous strategies are insufficient to cope with the effects of climate change 5.Societal transformations are altering the context for adapting to climate change

1. Climate change poses serious threats and challenges The example of Africa –Annual mean rainfall decrease, especially central southern Africa –Intense rainfall and flooding –Agricultural decrease, large lake fisheries decline, water stress, sea level rise, spread of infectious diseases

2. Climate change interacts with many other types of changes The effects of climate change are particularly dramatic when they come on top of existing stresses Many other changes take place simultaneously with climate change –Spread of infectious diseases –Trade liberalisation –Water reforms –Political or social conflict These influence the capacity to respond to climate change Some individuals, households, social groups and regions in southern and eastern Africa are becoming more vulnerable

Example conflict and climate change Localised conflicts in Kenyan drylands leading to –loss of key assets –exclusion from resources critical in adapting to drought –trade undermined Unexeptional drought or heavy rainfall leading to widespread suffering

3. Vulnerability to climate change is differential Vulnerability to climate change varies greatly among regions, sectors and social groups (for example within eastern and southern Africa) For example, provision of services and access to alternative livelihoods may vary between and within villages Poverty and vulnerability are related but not synonymous –Non-poor can be vulnerable, –Not all poor are vulnerable, –Poor are vulnerable for different reasons

Recognising differential vulnerability and distinction between vulnerability and poverty important in policy formulation Example Mozambique, drought creating winners and losers –grow sweet potato leaves in the river bed during drought (poorer farmers) –pump irrigating crops (richer farmers) Example South Africa, non-poor vulnerable –Irrigation farmers at risk from increased drought –Less diversified and face both market and climate risk Adaptation by one group may increase vulnerability of another –Sale of water or other products for income during drought may reduce access for others

4. Indigenous strategies are insufficient to cope with the effects of climate change A wealth of coping and adaptation strategies exist at the household level But many of these activities are marginal and do not ensure well-being in the face of droughts and flood Climate change will place strategies under pressure Examples from Mozambique: –Diversifying production –Plant crops on floodplains as well as higher altitude land –Eat forest fruits and tubers –Rely on remittances from family members working in South Africa Casual employment Artisanal work informal trade business/baking bread

5. Societal transformations are altering the context for adapting to climate change Rate and extent of contemporary environmental, technological, social and economic changes are unprecedented Adaptation to climate change takes place within a context of for example –Environmental change (biodiversity loss, land cover change etc) –Globalisation –Urbanisation and deagrarianisation These changes have highly uneven effects New vulnerable groups and sources of vulnerability

II. How can the South adapt? Measures to reduce the vulnerability of the poor to climate change need to be specifically targeted –Poverty reduction measures do not automatically reduce vulnerability –Any and every adaptation measure does not automatically reduce the vulnerability of the poor, they can even increase their vulnerability Policies need to enable rather than inhibit local strategies –For example local informal trade, nomadic livestock keeping, migratory labour

Sustainable adaptation: Three pronged approach to adaptation 1.Risk reduction (climate forecast information, disaster management, drought resistant agriculture, etc) 2.Strengthening adaptive capacity (diverse livelihoods, social capital, financial and technological capacity) 3.Targeting the causes of vulnerability (economic, social, political) Sustainable because it addresses environmental change (climate change) in a socially equitable manner, contributing to the reduction of poverty

Implications A shift from reacting to a physical threat in the short term towards addressing longer term social factors that cause vulnerability Need to go beyond risk reduction Enhanced understanding of vulnerability and adaptation needed to identify measures Measures need to be formulated specific to each situation (no ’one size fits all’ climate change adaptation measure) Specific and conscious targeting of measures critical

Three-pronged approach exemplified Vulnerability context needs to be considered, including the risk, local adaptation mechanisms, and conditions causing vulnerability Kenyan case, risks: –Increasing temperatures, drying in many areas –Intense rainfall events and floods –Water scarcity –Ecosystems threatened –Increase in droughts and floods Possible adaptation measures: piped water, reinforce infrastructure, promote drought resistant crops and livestock keeping

Kenyan example: main existing coping strategies Use of forest for grazing and forest products Seasonal movement of livestock Remittances and casual employment Trade with pastoralist groups Possible adaptation measures: Diversification of local livelihood options, strengthen livestock keeping and access to drought grazing, enhance processing and marketing of indigenous forest products such as gum arabica and indigenous fruits

Causes of vulnerability Sedentarisation of nomadic pastoralists due to government policies and conflict Privatisation of water sources and exclusion from forest Conflict and drought together creating destitute groups, who are unable to access adaptation options Possible adaptation measures: Peace-building and civil society strengthening Enhanced collaboration and trade during drought Social welfare networks to lift people out of destitution Facilitate nomadic pastoralism through watering points and mobile health and education facilities Ensure access by people to drought grazing areas and to local forest

Sustainable adaptation

Emerging issues Any and every adaptation measure does not necessarily necessary benefit the poor, some measures can even increase their poverty and vulnerability Need to involve all sectors of development assistance in adaptation, not only environment sectors Capacity building Lifting the most vulnerable groups onto the agenda