Fusarium Head Blight Outbreak Frequency under a Changing Climate Environment J M Fernandes, W Pavan and E Del Ponte
Introduction Southern states – dryland Spring types – grown during winter –spring season Warming temperatures Increase in precipitation 60´s 90´s
Wheat yield-reducing factors in Brazil Soil fertility (Al +++ ) Late Frost Sprouting Insects (BYDV) Fungal Diseases
Wheat diseases epidemiology Pathogen Host Environment (climate) If we know enough …..then we can model!
A Generic Disease Model Approach
Model Parameterization All disease parameters are read from a XML file Plant organs (disease targets) get from crop model
A Generic Disease Model Approach Epidemiological simulation model with three scales of spatial hierarchy Leaves-Plant-Field Lesions Expansion rate (Stochastic)
Linking Crop Models to Disease Models Crop models legacy (DSSAT) Disease simulation models Models written in different computers language Ability to run models directly in the Web
Linking Crop Models to Disease Models
Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT
Monitoring spore density in the air…
Spore cloud model
A simulation example... Cumulative infection risks Wet season Dry season
FHB Model Applications HTML / XML / JPG XHTML / XML HTTP Request Model Persistence Control View SDB Class Filter JSP ActionServlet Request Simulation Results Response SGDC WS CropSim SMPD Crop-FHB Model Climate Change Studies FHB Model On Season Warning System
Study area and climate dataset Passo Fundo ( 28°15'00"S, 52°25'12"W). Embrapa Wheat, (over 25 years of FHB records) A long-term daily climate dataset was available starting in1930´s Pergamino, Argentina
FHB - Multiple simulations Simulations were performed for a 30-day period starting June 1st. Infection periods were computed in a period of time from the 4 th to as long as the 20 th day following beginning of wheat heading (time of flowering). Exploratory analysis
FHB – Multiple Simulation Results, Passo Fundo, Brazil
FHB – Multiple Simulation Results Pergamino, Argentina
FHB x ENSO Phases Passo Fundo, BrazilPergamino, Argentina El NiñoLa Niña Wet Dry
Exploring South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Southeastern, SA
South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Passo Fundo, Brazil X X
South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Pergamino, Argentina X
Some highlights…. Minimum tillage plays a minor rule Weather is likely the driving force for epidemics Epidemics outbreaks are more frequent than before The environment is highly favorable to FHB development La Niña years are less favorable South Atlantic Surface Temperature may be useful for seasonal forecast.
Further research.... DBS Wheat Growth ModelWeather and climate forecast Panel of Experts Agronomists Economists Farmers Crop consultants Management Practices Cropsim -Wheat Cropsim -Wheat
FHB x Heading dates More Resistant Cultivars Chemical control Late Frost
Crop Failure
Thanks for your attention……