Brooklyn College Spring 2003 February 18, 2003 Gene Shagas Student, CIS 763 Trapped in the Net Chapters 6 … 10 Trapped in the Net Chapters 6 … 10

Slide 2 6. Jacking into the Market Financial Trading is a large technical system –Quick and irreversible operations –Continue to grow and integrate Markets out of control –Delayed feedback –Loss of communication –Unlimited and uncontrolled access to money –Derivatives markets are more volatile than traditional ones, moving much faster –Use untested mathematical models Computer models and computerized trading programs had newer been tested in a crunch today’s approaches are ad-hoc. explicitly define root-cause analysis!

Slide 3 7. Expert Operators and Critical Tasks Large amount of information lead to computerization –Loosing a large, coherent picture –Maintenance of traditional prerogatives for employees –Putative threat to jobs and skills –Error of interpretation is increased while number of computerized methods increased (pilot errors as examples) Increased load information from computers –Recognition of Human Factor –Increase workload in a crisis –Understanding of automatism…often difficult because their principle of functioning is different and often unknown The computer in the loop –Human errors remain –Removes opportunity for humans to learn –Additional redundancy necessary

Slide 4 8. Smart Weapons, Smart Soldiers Techno-industrial War –1914 … 1939: Rapid fire artillery, machine gun, Chemical weapon, tank, military aircraft, submarine –1939 … 1945: Blitzkrieg, strategic bombing, radar, V-1 and V-2 missiles, jet aircraft, atomic bomb The Postwar transition –Dominance in Air –Big wars unlikely, nuclear weapon unusable –Computer-related changes: »Embedded means of fire control »Strategic Analysis Change in warfare increases overall complexity of the military Intellectual and computer skills can be dominated over physical and emotional

Slide 5 9. Unfriendly Fire Reasonable choice of disaster –Libyan airliner: standard actions upon for hostile intercept –USS Stark: attack by Mirage was unexpected –Iran Air Flight 655: wrong identification as F-14 by operators System failed while equipment worked perfectly –Difficulties of forming an independent interpretation –New technologies lead to situations where people acting as with perfect equipment –Failure lay in the theory of design highly automated systems –Interactions between complex computerized systems and human operators may have high probability of errors

Slide The Logistics of Techno-War Quality versus Quantity in weapon systems –Civil, Korean, Vietnam War relayed for victory far more on quantity, than quality, Gulf War – new weapon systems. –Shift from mass production and mass attacks to all- volunteer forces equipped with latest technologies –Political protest against high cost [p.171] Computers and the Transformation of War [p.184] –High-technology weapons and communications –An assemblage of small units, moving quickly –Highly computerized Patriot and Tomahawk missiles –U.S. military as integrated socio-technical system Future battlefield is being designed as an electronic “battlespace”

Slide 7 End For more information: