Testing Social Change John Curtice Strathclyde University

A Talk in Four Parts zTheory zManifestations zComplications zImplications yResearch Design yArchives

Research Interests zElectoral Behaviour yBritish Election Study zSocial Attitudes yBritish and Scottish Social Attitudes

Individualisation zPeople choose identities and values rather than ‘inherit’ them. zCommunal influences such as class and religion weakened zDemand for self-actualisation zProduct of affluence, education and technology ((post-)modernisation)

Examples zVote less influenced by social position zIdentities are more fluid zFewer people have emotional attachments to parties zAttitudes on moral issues more liberal zChanging patterns of political participation

Class Dealignment

Trends in NatID - Scotland

Partisan Dealignment

Attitudes to homosexuality

Been on a demo

Labour’s Changed Image

Redistributed Attitudes?

Trends in NatID - England

The Impact of Leaders

Attitudes to Immigration

Party difference

To Summarise zConsiderable evidence of long run change that corresponds to claims of individualisation theory zBut political developments and institutions also matter zWe cannot be sure how much former matters if do not take account of latter

Implications for Research zHave to keep on asking same old ‘boring’ questions zCannot be sure if social change matters until test theory in different circumstances zThis means not just a long time series, but a varied one

Implications for Archives zCentral to analysis of social change zMeta data matters zNot just repositories of the past, but should inform current design yInsert old questions into new surveys

Conclusion zJust beginning to be able to test theories of social change using survey data z Length of time series required means archives have a central role zValue the documentation as much as the data!