Mobile Terminal OS Competition Ville Lehtonen, 49515B

Scope and agenda The Market in general The Operating Systems Symbian Windows Mobile Palm OS Linux (Montavista) Other Stakeholders Brand Conclusions

Mobile Operating Systems Mobile phone performance has increased drastically in the last 5 years Color screens Cameras Up to 80 Mt of memory The need for a real operating system is obvious Marketplace is too big for any major player to ignore Considerable synergy with other systems PC, consoles

The current market status PDAs were still the bigger market in 2003, but smart phones will probably beat them in 2003 PDA sales roughly 10 million a year 5.3% to 17.9% drop in PDA sales in 2003, depending on source 60% Symbian, 22% Palm OS and 6,6% Windows in April 2003 ARC Group study, 2003 The potential is immense 1.29 billion mobile phone users in September million data users in Sept 2003 Mostly in Korea and Japan Number of smart phones estimated to reach 45 million by 2007 (ARC Group, 2003) Expected to balance out at 20% of all mobile phone users

Symbian Founded by Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, Panasonic and Psion However Nokia now owns 63,3% of Symbian Designed for mobile systems Small memory footprint Minimal battery consumption Minimal hardware requirements Over 10 million phones using symbian sold by 2003 Massive industry support Significant software support ICQ among others 2,090,000 google hits

Windows Mobile Windows CE name evolution Windows Smartphone Pocket PC Windows Mobile 2003 Dominant in the PC industry Does not manage power as well as Symbian or Linux Significant industry support Compaq, Dell and Motorola 3,230,000 google hits Used “Windows CE”

Palm OS PalmSource, Inc PalmOne makes hardware Overall market leader in PDA / Smart phone OS Over 30 million sold software titles Expanded to the smart phone market with the Treo product line Product of Handspring, which Palm bought Had a 22% share of the market in 2003 Has most likely gone down 3,550,000 google hits

Linux based Operating Systems Montavista Linux CEE by Montavista software is the most serious entrant Open Source Low Industry support Most of it is coming from the far east Motorola balancing between Windows and Linux Boasts dynamic power managements But not much else Has lost the price advantage 113,000 google hits

The Hardware Industry Mobile phone producers behind Symbian Nokia, SonyEricsson, Panasonic, Motorola, Samsung, Lenovo (China), Siemens, NEC, Toshiba Palm OS Samsung, Sony, PalmOne, Foundertech Windows Mobile Compaq, Motorola, Samsung, Philips, Fujitsu, Orange Linux Motorola, Nexterm, ELT, Samsung, Sony, Panasonic, Philips, NEC, Toshiba

Software producers Software makers can make or break OSs Has been seen before All the systems are open Windows software dominates the market Linux presence negligible Palm even worse Symbian nonexistant Convergence will favor the incumbent Microsoft Switching costs are already lowest when using Windows Mobile

The Gaming Industry Significance to OSs experienced on the PC side I-Mode proof that it works in mobiles as well Games a huge market in their own right A three way struggle with linux sitting on the sidelines Massive competition for MMO games for all systems Palm participates by emulating Nintendo Will Sony support Symbian? Nokia starts off Nokia Games

Presence Services and Finances Presence services and digital identity growing Verified by Visa Microsoft Passport Instant messaging, on the side Liberty Alliance Symbian shareholders with Sun and others Getting users is the key Who will benefit from the convergence? Credit Card companies, Banks, OS creators, Mobile phone producers, Instant messengers, ISPs? Will all even survive the process?

Telco’s and ISPs Microsoft control of mobiles might allow it control of the VoIP market How will the Telco’s react? Billing becomes increasingly difficult Microsoft or Nokia ambitions in the presence services troubling Telco’s and ISPs lose a lot of potential revenue NTT Docomo, Sprint, Nextel, TeliaSonera among the Telco’s in Liberty Alliance AOL, Jabber from the internet side in Liberty Alliance What is left for Telco’s and ISPs?

Governments Digital citizenship for payment purposes allows effective taxation by companies What’s new? Banks have done this before Might grow to involve all commerce Which makes it bigger than banking Winner-takes-it-all seems unlikely to be allowed Personal information becoming a commercial product Not new, but might grow to new dimensions To what degree will the government allow it? Countries like China have their own agenda Might favor operating systems

Brand Differences in the Operating Systems relatively small The mass market will be won or lost on an emotional level Microsoft and Nokia the strong brands in the market Nokia might be a brand name, but Symbian is not Microsoft #2, Nokia #6 “Everyone knows Microsoft never loses” Linux has a niche market feel to it Relatively poor mass market awareness of Palm OS

Conclusions Brand weight in the market is massive Microsoft and Nokia dominant Nokia lacking on the software front Sony and its gaming empire in a critical position How can interoperability with Microsoft dominated desktop machines be guaranteed? Linux does not have much going for it Nor does Palm OS Hard to tell which way the Far East will go Might be most significant of all with China’s 260 million users Lots of local solutions already (I-Mode)

Sources /documents/Symbian_White.pdf /documents/Symbian_White.pdf office/2004/pr040322b.html office/2004/pr040322b.html