Child Wellbeing Indicators: Taking the Long View to Improve the Snapshot Matthew W. Stagner Executive Director, Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago and Senior Lecturer, Irving B. Harris School of Public Policy Studies

2 From the snapshot…. How do we improve indicators so they better relate to the outcomes of interest?

Can we get the best long view? 3

4 Taking a closer look at Indicators Indicators measure a certain point in time, but…

5 Do they relate to the ultimate outcome? Do we know what that snapshot data point tells us about how the child will likely end up?

Goals of the Presentation Look at a few examples Think about the numerous resources for improving how the snapshot relates to the long view Suggest some next steps for the field

7 Policy makers see childhood as a relay race Indicators and policy markers show that each institution and responsible party are passing the child on to the next in good shape.  Healthy birth  Early development  School readiness  Healthy adolescence  Readiness for adulthood How can longitudinal data analysis help us improve these cross-sectional transition markers?

8 Examples  Early Childhood Education  Reading  Adolescent Behavioral Health  Obesity  Economic Circumstances  Food security

9 Example 1: Reading What we have: 9 Year Old on level reading comprehension is an indicator for outcomes in young adulthood. But, what IS that relationship? And, what predicts reading abilities? What we need: Data to focus on the relationship through the child’s life trajectory

U.S. 4 th Grade Proficient Reading Level 32 Percent of 4 th Grade (9-10 year-old) students in the U.S. are reading at or above proficient reading level 10 National Kids Count Data Center,

“The D’s are misleading.”

Do Reading Levels Follow a Clear Path? 12

And to what policy relevant outcomes do they relate? High school completion? Post secondary education? Juvenile justice and criminal justice involvement? Ability to earn a living wage and support a family? Bob Goerge and colleagues at Chapin Hall are now pursuing work to determine this...

Example 2: Behavioral Health What we have: Measurements of BMI and Obesity at points in time But: Health patterns in the transition to adulthood, and prior to adolescence, may set health trajectories into adulthood What we need: Does health track across the life course? What alters health outcomes? Adolescence is a very transitional stage

U.S. Obesity Rates in Adolescence

Will the trajectory look like this? U.S. Obesity from Adolescence into Adulthood

Actual data from Add Health U.S. U.S. Obesity from Adolescence into Adulthood

Is Adolescent Obesity Indicative of Adult Outcomes? Adolescence is the point in the life course when people gain autonomy to make decisions that impact their health:  Parental monitoring loosens  Adolescents gain more control over their environments and behavioral choices What do we really learn about measuring obesity at one point in adolescence? Kathie Harris and the Add Health team at the University of North Carolina are pursuing this. 18

U.S. Obesity trajectory from adolescence to young adulthood is associated with multiple health outcomes in adulthood … Longitudinal data refines cross-sectional measures Harris, Kathleen Mullan. DRAFT “An Integrative Approach to Health Abstract” (2009). Based on Presidential Address to the Population Association of America.

20 Example 3: Food Security – What We Know Have: In 2006, 17.2 percent of all children lived in food-insecure households. But: Only 0.6% of all children lived in households with child hunger As surveyed, results capture food insecurity experienced at any time in past 12 months. Do these measures capture the long view? Source: Nord, M., Andrews, M., & Carlson, S. (2008). Household Food Security in the United States, Washington, DC: Economic Research Service/USDA

Example 3: Food Security – What We Need? What we need: How long do kids live in food-insecure homes? What are we measuring? What are the real consequences for later in life if children face food insecurity in childhood?

22 We have the resources for longitudinal analysis Growing Up In Australia Matthew Gray, Project Executive Director and Diana Smart, General Manager (Research) Examines the impact of Australia's social and cultural environment on the next generation. Child Development in 3 Domains Longitudinal Study of New Zealand Children and Families Led by Dr Susan Morton at the University of Auckland In development, hoping to capture increasing diversity of New Zealand, and its impact on child development

National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (U.S.) Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey-Birth Cohort (U.S.) Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey- Kindergarten Cohort (U.S.) National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health Survey (U.S.) National Child Development Study (U.K.) We have the resources for longitudinal analysis

Administrative Data Can Also Create a Longitudinal View When we think of longitudinal sources, we think surveys, but.. We can create a “longitudinal study” from other resources Example: Chapin Hall’s Integrated Data Base

25 What’s Next? We need more researcher/policymaker collaborations to match indicators to policy needs Example: U.S. Interagency Forum on Child & Family Statistics We need to constantly evaluate indicators with longitudinal sources, creating a continually improving set of indicators

How are we doing monitoring how they are doing?

27 Thank you! Matthew W. Stagner Executive Director Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago Senior Lecturer, Irving B. Harris School of Public Policy Studies 1313 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL V: F: