Technology in the ‘Triptych’ approach Michel den Elzen, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, associated with RIVM

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: Introduction and original Triptych approach 2.New Triptych approach Technology in industry and electricity 2.Results 3.Strengths and weakness 4.Conclusions Overview

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 3 Original Triptych 1997 Energy CO 2 only Domestic sectors (Households, services, transport) Converging per-capita emissions Industry (energy intensive) BAU production growth with efficiency improv. (convergence to eff. benchmark) Electricity BAU production growth with limit for renewables, CHP, coal and gas National emission target Values served as the basis for the negotiations within the EU (1997)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 4 Sectors of new Triptych approach Industry Energy and process emissions from industrial production CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O ElectricityEmissions from electricity production CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O Domestic Residential, commercial, transportation, energy-related CO 2 emissions from agriculture, all emissions HFCs, PFCs SF 6 CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 Fossil fuel production Coal mining, gas venting, gas leakages and flaring CO 2, CH 4 Agricultural Non-energy-related emissions from the agricultural sector CH 4, N 2 O WasteLandfills, waste incineration, waste water CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O LULUCFMainly deforestationCO 2

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 5 Sectoral global GHG emissions Source: FAIR 2.2 model

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 6 Triptych approach Industry BAU production growth with efficiency improvement Electricity BAU production growth with limit for renewables, coal and gas DomesticConverging per-capita emissions Fossil fuel production Decline to zero AgriculturalReduction below BAU WasteConverging per-capita emissions Land use change and forestry BAU (here excluded) National emission target

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 7 Differentiated participation in convergence Source: Ott et al like South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore like Argentina, Brazil, China, Mexico, South Africa like Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Zambia).

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: Strong scenario: Early convergence to final convergence level (p.c. emissions or energy eff. level) (large coalition) 2.Medium scenario: Medium convergence to final convergence level; delayed convergence for the developing countries Before participation DCs implement Sustainable development policies and measures or no-lose targets (10% below BaU) Differentiated participation in convergence

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 9 Industry Considerable per capita growth in industrial production from IPCC SRES scenarios Energy efficiency varies between countries Differentiated convergence of aggregated energy efficiency index (EEI) –EEI: specific energy consumption (SEC) divided by SEC under best current practices (reference SEC) –Convergence-level 0.7 (bottom-up studies)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 10 Differentiated convergence in Energy Efficiency Index Convergence level 0.7 EU, USA: 2050 India 2070 Medium scenario

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 11 Electricity Growth in electricity generation from IPCC SRES scenarios Energy mix varies between countries Emission factors per fuel vary between countries

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 12 Differentiated convergence of emissions/kWh Convergence level 600 gCO2/kWh Medium scenario

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 13 Decrease in the share of coal and oil in the fuel mix by 90% in 2050 Medium scenarioReduction by CCS, renewables etc.

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 14 Sectoral development: Global 450 CO2-eq case A1B scenario

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 15 Medium scenario corresponds with stabilisation 550 ppm CO 2 eq, and strong with 450 ppm CO 2 eq Reduction of countries are given in MNP report (

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 16 Strengths and weakness Weaknesses: Rather complex Requires much sectoral data Requires agreement on projections of production growth rates for industry and electricity Strengths: compatible with technical emission reduction potentials Account for national circumstances Allows level playing field industry Account for equity principles Explicitly allows for economic growth and improving efficiency Successfully applied (on EU level) as a basis for negotiating targets allows delayed developing country participation

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 17 Conclusions reductions are ambitious but compatible with technical reduction potentials Substantial reduction requirements for the industrialised countries, especially those more inefficient or slower growing Substantial emission increases are allowed for most developing countries, however, mostly below their reference scenarios

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 18 Thank you! MNP report ‘The Triptych approach revisited: A staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation’, see:

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 19 Back up slides

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 20 Introduction 1997: How should the EU Kyoto target of –8% be shared among the individual member states? All countries reduce the same at –8%? Not acceptable due to different national conditions and development stage All countries do the same: increase efficiency, reduce fossil fuels in electricity production and converge in domestic emissions. Triptych was developed to calculate the respective emission allowances Values served as the basis for the negotiations within the EU.

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 21 Methodology: the FAIR 2.1 country model Base year data ( ): Emissions: IEA database (CO 2 ) and EDGAR 3.2 (non-CO 2 ) All Kyoto gases, excluding land use change and forestry, including international transport Future population, GDP and emissions scenario for countries IMAGE IPCC SRES scenarios at 17 regions Using an improved downscaling method Tries to deal with the limits of present down-scaling methods

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 22 Domestic Domestic per capita emissions vary substantially between countries Triptych 7.0: Participating countries –Differentiated per capita emissions converge to 1.5 tonCO 2 /capita.year

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: CO2-eq case A1B scenario Convergence in domestic per capita emissions Convergence level 1.5 tCO2/cap Source: FAIR 2.2 model

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 24 EEI of top-20 steel industry

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 25 Agriculture Large increase in emissions expected in developing countries Stabilization expected in developed countries Emission reduction options available Triptych 7.0: Reduction below reference emissions by a percentage (by % for low income countries, -40% for high income countries)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 26 Source: FAIR 2.2 model

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 27 Sectoral development: USA 450 CO2-eq case A1B scenario Source: FAIR 2.2 model

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 28 Sectoral development: China Source: FAIR 2.2 model

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 29 Electricity Energy mix varies between countries Emission factors per fuel vary between countries Triptych 7.0: Growth in electricity generation from IPCC SRES scenarios Participating countries: 1.Convergence of emissions per kilowatt hour per fuel 2.Decrease in the share of coal and oil in the fuel mix (60% in 2050) 3.improvements in the efficiency of electricity consumption (1.5%/yr, due to less demand industry and domestic)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: 30 Medium scenario corresponds with stabilisation 550 ppm CO 2 eq, and strong with 450 ppm CO 2 eq (Source: FAIR 2,2 model)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: CO2-eq case A1B scenario Sectoral development: Global