What the Census tells us Presented by Dr John Guenther to A21, Launceston, September 2007

 This presentation is designed to promote a discussion about religious trends in Tasmania.  It does not suggest answers and should not be taken as a ‘proof’ of anything in particular.  It does however, give a fairly comprehensive picture of a selection of variables from the 2006 Census and highlights a number of issues.  The inferences and implications shown at the end of this presentation are derived from the data but would need to be tested with further qualitative research. John Guenther, December 2009

Row Labels Buddhism Christian: Anglican Christian: Baptist Christian: Brethren Christian: Catholic Christian: Churches of Christ Christian: Jehovah's Witnesses Christian: Latter Day Saints Christian: Lutheran Christian: Oriental Christian Christian: Orthodox Christian: Other Christian Christian: Other Protestant Christian: Pentecostal Christian: Presbyterian and Reformed Christian: Salvation Army Christian: Seventh-day Adventist Christian: Total Christian: Uniting Church Hinduism Islam Judaism No religion Not stated

Factors associated with proportional representation of religious groups in Tasmania, 2006 Religious group Median age Individual income Household size Per cent of population under 15 Per cent completed Year 12 Per cent one parent families Per cent with no connection to Internet Per cent intact families Anglican Positive Catholic Positive Total Christian PositiveNegative Buddhism NegativePositive Other religions NegativePositive HinduismNegativePositiveNegative PositiveNegative Not statedNegative No religionPositiveNegative

Religious group Median age Individual income Household size Per cent of population under 15 Per cent completed Year 12 No connection to Internet Per cent intact families Per cent unpaid work Anglican PositiveNegative Catholic Positive Negative Total Christian PositiveNegative Positive Buddhism NegativePositive HinduismNegative PositiveNegative Not statedNegative IslamPositive

 In terms of religious affiliation we see ◦ Decline in ‘total Christian’ is attributable mainly to Anglican and Uniting Church decline ◦ In mainly urbanised areas, Pentecostals are growing fastest ◦ In mainly rural areas, Catholics are growing fastest ◦ Other religions (esp. Buddhism) are growing (from a low base) in and around Hobart and a few other places ◦ Baptists are growing fast where there are no Baptist churches!

 Baptists are tending to decline fastest where there are existing, strong Baptist churches  Pentecostals are tending to grow fastest where there are existing Pentecostal churches  Generally, religious groups grow fastest where there is an established presence  Growth in Buddhism and Hinduism is associated with declines in Christian churches  Growth in Catholics is associated with one parent families

 Dissatisfaction with large institutional churches does not explain the decline of Christian affiliation (compare Anglican/Uniting with Pentecostal/Catholic)  Growth is associated with presence of young people. Significance of the family?  Growth is associated with low educational achievement. Are Christians seen to be dumb?  Growth is associated with no access to technology. Are Christians Luddites?

 Decline is not age related; i.e. its not because we are getting older  Decline is not income related; i.e. it is not shrinking faster because of wealth  Decline is not due to family structure; i.e. it is not because of a breakdown in traditional families

 Christian churches should maintain a strong emphasis on youth ministry to build on current strengths  Christians should engage in reasoned debate about important societal issues, including environment, social inequity, injustice etc.  Christians should address the aspirations and needs of all groups to have an effective evangelistic outreach.

 Further questions and comments are invited and should be directed to: ◦ Dr John Guenther ◦ Research Consultant ◦ Cat Conatus ◦ m: PO Box 469, Ulverstone, TAS 7315 ◦ TAS: 13 Hamilton St, Ulverstone, TAS 7315 ◦ NT: 91/111 Bloomfield St, Alice Springs, NT 0870 ◦ p: ◦ m: ◦ w: ◦ e: