Multiple Criteria Analysis and Water Resources Risk Management David L. Olson –James & H.K. Stuart Chancellor’s Distinguished Chair –Professor, Department of Management Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Overview Multiple criteria in Water Resource Risk Management Interactive Decision Maps –Russian method LP to generate alternatives Visualize more than three criteria –Useful for problems with many potential variants Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Past Work of Others – library search Water balance, climate change and land-use planning in the Pear Harbor Basin, Hawaii –Giambelluca, Ridgley & Nullet Water Resources Development 12:4, 1996 The Peconic River: Concerns associated with different risk evaluations for fish consumption –Burger & Gochfeld, Jounral of Environmental Planning & Management 48:6, 2005 Evaluation of drinking water treatment technology: An entropy-based fuzzy application –Chowdhury & Husain, Journal of Environmental Engineering, Oct 2006 Charting a path for innovative toilet technology using multicriteria decision analysis –Borsuk, Mareur, Lienert & Larsen, Environmental Science & Technology 42:6, 2008 Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Criteria Chowdhury & Husain (2006) Drinking Water Borsuk et al. (2008) Water quality protection Johnson & White (2010) Drinking Water Cancer riskQuality of lifeHealth Noncancer riskCostsCost Technology availabilityHealth riskTesting Management factorsEnvironmental qualityTreatment Chemical performanceFairness Cost of technologyScientists – publication Cost of chemicalsScientists – water quality Cost of operation Cost of maintenance Cost of accessories Cost - Watershed

Corps of Engineers - Criteria Middle Mississippi Delaware River Great LakesVirgin River (UT, AZ, NV) Forests Wetlands Habitat Agriculture Aquatics Recreation Floodplain Water quality Invasive species Economics Cost-benefitEcology Connectivity -(native species) Hydrology Geomorphic -(diversity) Invasive species Floodplain Invasive species Land use planning Endangered species Water supply & quality Wildfire Channel maintenance Storm runoff, salinity Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Visualization of Multiple- criterion Decision Problems and Search for Efficient Decisions Alexander V. Lotov Russian Academy of Sciences, Computing Center, and Lomonosov Moscow State University Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Complications related to old approaches: example of water quality planning — cost (F) versus oil products pollution (Z5)

Feasible Goals Method (FGM) / Interactive Decision Maps (IDM) technique The FGM/IDM is a graphic form of the goal approach. Its main features are: approximation of the Edgeworth-Pareto Hull (EPH), i.e. the variety of feasible goals and all dominated criterion points; Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Real-life application of the FGM Decision support system for decision screening in water quality planning Russian Federal programme Revival of the Volga River Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

 Water quality to be improved in a large river basin  DSS to support the search for reasonable strategies of investment in wastewater treatment facilities  Consider both cost and its allocation between regions Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

 DSS calibrated for the Oka River  One of the largest tributaries of the Volga River  Seven regions are located at the main flow of the river  The river-bed was split into fourteen segments that are related to the locations of the regions  Six most important pollutants  Suspension  Phosphates  Nitrates  Oil products  Ferrous combinations  Biological oxygen demand Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Oka River Basin Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Users apply the DSS for the search for preferable investment strategies A large list of performance indicators is provided to users –They can specify screening criteria directly in the list –Two kinds of potential criteria  environmental indicators - describe resulting pollutant concentrations in a region or in the river  economic indicators - include the total cost of the project and investments in particular regions Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

DSS allows user to specify two to seven performance indicators from the list to be the screening criteria. Constraints on the indicator values can be imposed. Here the total cost of the project, the investment in the fourth region and the investment in the seventh region have been already specified to be screening criteria. After criteria were specified, computer approximates the Edgeworth-Pareto Hull (EPH), which is contains all feasible combinations of the criterion values and all criterion points dominated by them.

Usually user desires to explore three criteria at once: he/she explores decision maps Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

To explore dependencies between more than three criteria, user can animate the decision map or use matrices of decision maps (snap-shots of decision map animation) Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Then, user selects one of the decision maps and selects the preferred goal (cross in the following picture) Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

The related water quality improvement project is computed automatically (displayed in the third column of the table) Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011

Conclusions Water resource management involves many tradeoffs Many criteria could be considered US Federal Gov’t tends to focus on cost- benefit –Water resources agencies in the past mandated multiple criteria Lotov’s IDM offers an interesting means to visualize tradeoffs Climate, Water and Ecosystems - Oct 2011