GOES-R PROVING GROUND NASA/SP O RT UPDATE 2009 Planning Meeting, Boulder, CO.

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Presentation transcript:

GOES-R PROVING GROUND NASA/SP O RT UPDATE 2009 Planning Meeting, Boulder, CO

SPoRT Plan Outline – 2009/10  Overview of planned contributions  Transition and Evaluate GOES-R ABI proxy data/products produced by other members of Proving Ground Team to SR WFOs  Improve the display of LMA data in AWIPS  Risk Reduction via GLM proxy data  Development of multi-channel and composite products and displays to meet forecast needs  Apply lightning algorithm to WRF-ABI simulation  Assimilation of real and proxy data in modeling

Transition Efforts  Match products to problems  Make PG products available to forecasters in their DSS  Developing and implementing product training  Conduct assessment on utility of product in operations  Document usefulness of product to address specific forecast need  This is the SPoRT paradigm. Recent examples of transitioned products include MODIS SST and Fog products, GOES aviation products, and CIRA TPW.

Forecast Problem Proxy Data / Source Product(s) Diagnosing changing weatherABI / TBD High resolution imagery and derived products Diagnosing low clouds and fogABI / SPoRT Enhanced channel difference imagery Local temperature forecastsABI / SPoRT Land surface temperature Visibility reductions due to smoke and fire weather support ABI / CIMSS-SPoRT Color composites, active fires and burn areas Lead time for severe weatherGLM, WRF / AWG Total lightning products, WRF lightning threat Sea breeze impactABI / SPoRT Local model forecasts initialized with surface parameters and SSTs Diagnosing severe weather and heavy precipitation ABI / CIRA-SPoRT Blended total precipitable water Convective weather forecastsABI / CIMSS-SPoRT Local modeling initialized with vegetation parameters and SSTs, and assimilated cloud-tracked wind fields Regional precipitation forecasts and off shore weather ABI / CIMSS-SPoRT T(p), q(p), 3D fields of met. variables from model forecasts improved with radiances or profile information SPoRT South/Southeast Focus for GOES-R Products

 Diagnosing changing weather  Diagnosing low clouds and fog  Local temperature forecasts  Visibility reductions from smoke and fire weather  Lead time for severe weather  Sea Breeze Impact  Diagnosing severe weather and heavy precipitation  Convective weather forecasts  Regional precipation forecasts and off shore weather  ABI – high res. Imagery and derived products  ABI – enhanced channel difference imagery  ABI – Land Surface Temperature  ABI – Color Composites, active fires and burn areas  GLM – Total lightning, and lightning threat  ABI – Local models initialized with sfc parameters and SST  ABI – Blended TPW  ABI – Local modeling initialized with veg. parameters, and SSTs, and assimilated cloud track winds  T(p), q(p), 3D fields of met. Variables from model forecasts improved with radiances or profile information Forecast IssuesRelevant GOES-R product/data

Contributed Expertise  From proxy data sets by PG and AWG teams that mimic GOES-R instruments…….  Multi-channel True Color, False Color, Fog  Composites SST from simulated ABI – Impact difference from MODIS?  Lightning Threat Facilitate GLM proxy data usage in severe weather Apply McCaul algorithm to ABI-WRF 2km domain  Assimilation of Real and Proxy Data in Models ABI simulated T and q profile assimilation (compare to AIRS/CrIS) ABI proxy data (MODIS LST, veg.) in coupled WRF-LIS Partnerships HUN, ESSC, GLM AWG members NASA Goddard GMAO, JCSDA

GLM Proxy Product from LMA data Can applications from LMA still be used with reduced resolution of GLM?

Updraft Intensifies Vortex Spin-up Notice intra-cloud and CG trends before the tornado touchdown Intra-cloud shows clear trend Cloud-to-ground is steady Correlates with: Storm updraft strength Incipient severity Source density “jump” noted in advance of many severe weather occurrences GLM? What is the Practical Benefit?

WRF-based Forecasts of Lightning Threat E. McCaul, USRA, and S. Goodman, NOAA GOALS To apply the McCaul et al lightning forecast algorithm to CAPS WRF ensembles to examine robustness APPROACH apply lightning algor. to some prototypical event modify calibrations using NALMA data, if needed examine scale sensitivity of the two threat fields examine statistical envelope of inferred lightning RECENT RESULTS - Completed first-pass analysis of CAPS WRF ensemble fields for 2 May Threat1 (based on graupel flux) more scale sensitive than VII; LMA data uncertain (range) FUTURE WORK - Apply technique to additional dates to confirm preliminary findings for storms closer to LMA - Extend technique to analysis of CIMSS ABI WRF hemispheric simulation of 4 June 2005 event Sample 24 hr LTG forecast

Evaluation of Products  Key to success  Sustained interaction between developers and end users facilitated by PG teams for the purpose of training, product assessment, and obtaining feedback  Type of methods to engage users  Site visits and presentations (8 last year outside of HUN)  Distance-learning modules with GOES-R proxy product impacts to specific forecast problems  WES Cases  Regular coord. telecons (Q&A and feedback opportunity)  Online surveys (comparable, metric oriented)  Blog posts (peer influence, visual, relevant)

Data in AWIPS II Lightning Mapping Array Observations 18 February 2009 – 2306 UTC AWIPS AWIPS II  Displaying source densities  Using GRIB format  Combined with radar  Have physical side-by-side comparison of AWIPS versus AWIPS II  Lessons learned to be applied to other SPoRT products

Magnitude Comparison AWIPS ~86 sources AWIPS II ~113 sources

Benefits to the Proving Ground Radar NALMA  SPoRT’s efforts to ingest products into AWIPS II are preparing for the future of visualization by NWS  Lessons learned can be applied directly to GOES-R Lightning Mapper  SPoRT is developing expertise with AWIPS II (future McIDAS plug-in)

Updrafts SPC Spring Program Activities with GOES-R PG Training for source density product  SPoRT and the Lightning Group are providing expertise in total lightning Provide training to personnel Visits by SPoRT staff to SPC and Experimental Warning Program  Real-time total lightning data from three networks will be provided North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array Washington DC Lightning Mapping Array Kennedy Space Center Lightning Detection and Ranging II Network Data Flow to SPC

Summary  Transition and evaluation of proxy products from PG members to forecast issues of S/SE WFOs  Contribute expertise on total lightning in operations based on partnerships with AWG and RR and past work over several years with WFOs within the NALMA  Use of proxy data for multi-channel or composite product development, as needed for S/SE fcst issues  Lightning threat forecast product from WRF-ABI run  Use both real and proxy data to understand impacts of data assimilation / model initialization