NBA Statistical Analysis Econ 240A. Intro. to Econometrics. Fall 2010. Group 3 Lu Mao Ying Fan Matthew Koson Ryan Knefel Eric Johnson Tyler Nelson Grop.

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NBA Statistical Analysis Econ 240A. Intro. to Econometrics. Fall Group 3 Lu Mao Ying Fan Matthew Koson Ryan Knefel Eric Johnson Tyler Nelson Grop 3 | NBA Statistical AnalysisGroup 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

What factors determine winning percentage? – Attendance – Field Goal % – Rebounds for & against – Salary – Offensive turnovers – Previous season win % – Points per game for & against Goal Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

Spreadsheet Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis YearTeamwin_pctsalaryattendppg_defppg_offfgpreb_defreb_offto_offprev_win_pct 9/10denver /9denver /8denver /7denver /6denver /5denver /4denver /3denver /2denver

Significant variables – Points per game for & against – Attendance – Field Goal % – Rebounds for – Offensive turnovers Insignificant variables – Rebounds against – Previous season win % – Salary Executive Summary Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

Figures 1 & 2 1 Smallest = (Charlotte Bobcats) Q1 = Median = Q3 = Largest = (Portland Trailblazers) IQR = Few Outliers 2 Normally distributed Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

Figures 3 & 4 3 Smallest = (New Jersey Nets) Q1 = Median = Q3 = 0.61 Largest = (Dallas Mavericks) IQR = No outliers 4 Normally distributed Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

Figures 5 & 6

Figures 7 & 8 Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Figures 7 & 8

Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis

Table 1 Overpowering variables Points per game Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:05 Sample: Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY1.32E E ATTEND1.52E E PPG_DEF PPG_OFF FGP REB_DEF REB_OFF TO_OFF PREV_WIN_PCT C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

Table 2 Regression omitting points per game for and against Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:05 Sample: Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY-1.18E E ATTEND1.05E E FGP REB_DEF REB_OFF TO_OFF PREV_WIN_PCT C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

Table 3 Regression omitting rebounds against Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:15 Sample: Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY-1.19E E ATTEND1.12E E FGP REB_OFF TO_OFF PREV_WIN_PCT C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

Table 4 Checking if salary endogenous Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: SALARY Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:17 Sample: Included observations: 260 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. WIN_PCT C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid4.48E+16 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

Table 5 Checking if Attendance is endogenous Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: ATTEND Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:19 Sample: Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. WIN_PCT C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid9.72E+08 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

Table 6 Checking if previous win percentage is endogenous Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: PREV_WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:20 Sample: Included observations: 260 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. WIN_PCT C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:48 Sample: Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. SALARY-8.17E E ATTEND1.56E E FGP REB_OFF TO_OFF C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Table 7 Dropped previous win percentage

Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable: WIN_PCT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/10 Time: 15:42 Sample: Included observations: 257 Excluded observations: 3 VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. ATTEND1.47E E FGP REB_OFF TO_OFF C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Table 8 Dropped salary Final regression Win_pct=1.47E-05*Attend *FGP *Reb_Off *TO_Off

2011 Highest Win Percentage L.A. Lakers – 69.5% Conclusion Group 3 | NBA Statistical Analysis