Why E/3? Dr. Kelly Kissock Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of Renewable and Clean Energy University of Dayton

What on Earth Are These? World Energy Use World Population World Economic Output

Converting Heat to Work Since pre-history we knew how to: Work Heat Industrial Revolution to: Work Heat

Newcomen’s Steam Engine ~1712

Revolutionary Change  Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%  Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%  Transforms family: parents leave home to work  Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad  Technology and population explode

Economic Explosion  From , per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year  Increases 30x!

Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

Single Most Important Event in Human History

We’ve Come a Long Way…  Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5%  Watt’s steam engine: 1%  Gasoline engines: 30%  Coal Rankine cycles: 35%  Turbines: 40%  Diesel engines: 50%  Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%

But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels 2. Employ combustion to release heat CH 4 +2 (O 2 ) = CO 2 +2 (H 2 0) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels  In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels  Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

Resource Constraints M. King Hubbert

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973

Actual U.S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972) Source:

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000

Cambell’s World Oil Peak

ASPO World Oil Peak

World Oil Near Peak Production Peak production = 2015 Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994

EIA’s World Oil Peak

Extreme Oil “Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.” Simon Dyer

Canada’s Oil Sands  Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia; #1 source of imported oil for US (22%)  GHG production from processing 400% greater than domestic oil, but well-to-wheel increase 5% - 15% greater  Surface mining (20%): Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oilbitumen 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond  In situ mining (80%): Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process

Deep Water Drilling  Gulf of Mexico 6,000 wells Progressively deeper water Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft water Source:  Brazil’s Tupi Field: 7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft sandstone/rock salt $1 million/day to operate platform “The only political fight in Brazil is over how to spend its future oil bounty and who gets the lions share.” Source:

World Natural Gas Near Peak Production Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004

World Coal Peak Production 2050? Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

Consequences of Peak Fuel Rising demand and falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices Rising demand and falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.) Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

Environmental Perspective “Using energy in today’s ways leads to more environmental damage than any other peaceful human activity.” The Economist, 1990.

95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels

Global CO 2 Concentration Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm

Coincident Global Warming Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global Climate?”, American Geophysical Union, 2005.

Even (N ) and Odd (CO 2 CH 4 ) Atmospheric Molecules “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Greenhouse Gas Trends Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

Historical Temperature and CO 2 Correlation “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart” Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages

Result: Earth Quickly Warming Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

Warming Most Pronounced At Poles “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps

Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding

And the List Goes On…  Drought  Severe weather  Mass extinctions (30% of species lose range)  Accelerating non-linear irreversible process Methane release from thawing “perma-frost” Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…

Debate?  Consensus view from: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS) Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’  Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004): All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with key words “climate change”. Found 983 papers NONE disagreed with consensus position

Time Lags Amplify Effects  Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001

Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up Fossil Fuel Resources Economy Energy Out Atmosphere Fossil Fuel Energy CO 2 & Pollution Linear Model of Production

TechnicalBiological Ecological Model of Production

Transition to Sustainability Is Central Challenge of 21 st Century Pre-industrial revolution Industrial revolution 21 st century Time Today

OECD / Non-OECD Contributions Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (NRDC) Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (ASES) Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

California Story

California Energy Efficiency = 1 Billion Cars

US Energy Efficiency = 77% of Demand for New Energy Services

But We Have to Move Even Faster…

Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives  American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability % CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010 Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction  U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification: 50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED 65% Silver 80% Gold 100% Platinum  ASHRAE Standard : 30% less energy than Standard : guidance for net zero site energy use  U.S. Department of Energy All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025

University of Dayton: Renewable and Clean Energy Program  Energy Efficiency Energy Efficient Buildings Energy Efficient Manufacturing Ground Source Heat Pumps Design of Thermal Systems Building Energy Informatics  Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Systems Solar Energy Engineering Wind Energy Engineering Environmental Sustainability

Same Week as “Deep Horizon” Sank  U.S. approves first off-shore wind farm off Cape Cod  Virginia off- shore wind resource could power 750,000 homes, forever Source: Audubon, 10-11/2010

In Fact:  Atlantic off- shore wind potential = 70% of U.S. electricity  North Dakota is “Saudi Arabia” of wind  10 automakers launch plug-in hybrids by 2012 Source:

“Our Choice”

Doing the Math: World  C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E  Business as usual case Pop increases by 1.5x $/Pop increases by 4x E/$ constant C/E constant C 2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C 2000  Carbon stabilization case C 2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C x improvement in energy efficiency 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy  50% carbon reduction case 6x improvement in energy efficiency 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

EEB Course Goals Learn how to design buildings that are: Functional (traditional engineering course) Economic (better engineering course) Improve comfort / productivity (enlightened engineering course) E/3 (our course)

Thank you!

EXTRA SLIDES

What to do? Addressing these global problems of resource and environmental constraints on the foundation of our modern economy will no doubt require: Social reform Economic reform Political reform Technological innovation

Doing the Math: US  C = Pop x $/Pop x C/$ x E/$ x C/E  Business as usual case Pop grows at 1% from 275M to 450M is increase of 1.6 $/Pop grows at 2% is increase of 2.7 E/$ constant C/E constant C 2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 4.3 C 2000  Carbon stabilization case: C 2050 = 0.5 C 2000 C 2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x (E/$) / 4.3 x (C/E) / 2 = 0.5 C 2000  Continued development requires: Factor 4 increase in energy efficiency Factor 2 reduction in carbon intensity of energy

Stabilization Wedges  Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Pre-industrial = 280 ppm Current = 380 ppm Best case target = stabilize at 500 ppm in 2050  (1 C above 2000 temperature)  Stabilizing at 500 ppm by 2050: World: C emissions constant at 7 GtC/yr (BAU = 14 GtC/yr) US: C emissions reduced 50% to 0.7 GtC/yr (BAU = 2.7 GtC/yr)  Possible by realizing “wedges”

World Carbon Stabilization Scenario Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

Energy Resources Becoming Increasingly Scarce Fossil Fuel Resources Economy Fossil Fuel Energy Linear Model of Production

Cost of Electricity Resources Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.

U.S. CO 2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March

Remarkably  Energy Efficiency Increases business competitiveness Increase resource availability Increases environmental health  Energy Efficiency is THE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT ECONOMY

Government Programs  U.S. Department of Energy Energy audits  Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized manufacturers  Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy audits for large manufactures Energy system software and best practice case studies  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency E3 energy, waste and productivity audits  Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient equipment and retrofits.

International Standards ISO Standards 9001 Quality Environment Energy  Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.

Cost of Energy Efficiency  “25% of total electricity usage can be saved cost effectively, at an average of 3 cents or less per kWh.”  “New generation sources cost 5 cents or more per kWh, making efficiency the lowest cost electricity resource” Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy

Cost of Energy Efficiency  "Energy efficiency is … the cheapest and most efficient way to reduce emissions by the United States”  “Policymakers worldwide should make efficiency central to their efforts to reduce the emission and harmful impact of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.” Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science, 1/2010

U.S. CO 2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March

How it Started  1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear plant to bridge gap between expected demand and supply  Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy efficiency standards on household refrigerators will save more energy than nuclear plant will generate.  California embarks on energy-efficiency path

California Today  Per capita energy use fourth lowest  Emits half CO 2 per $ as rest of U.S.  Generates most renewable electricity  Most patents and most capital invested in “cleantech” companies

Denmark Story  1973  99% of energy imported  80% of economy is agricultural  2009  Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job economy  Control world wind turbine market  17% of energy from renewable energy  Net energy exporter  Meet Kyoto CO 2 standards  3.7% unemployment  Trade and fiscal surplus Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark, Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009

United Kingdom Story Implemented  Regulatory framework  Incentives and penalties  7 fold increase in renewable energy “Want to be first movers..” “Market is colossal”  Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles  Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by “Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy economy” “Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.” “Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise” Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom, Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009

The US Story?