1 The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, 2009 Memphis AMS/NWA Presentation – Feb Pat Spoden, Daniel Spaeth, Mike York, Robin Smith, Shane Luecke, Beverly Poole, Christine Wielgos

2 The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, 2009 OUTLINE Brief review of the stormBrief review of the storm Review of the environment and forcing (Why was it so bad?)Review of the environment and forcing (Why was it so bad?) Latent heating just about saves the day!Latent heating just about saves the day! Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

3 The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, 2009

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6 UNIQUE IMPACT (THIS TIME IT WAS PERSONAL) The ice storm impacted each and every member of our staff significantly. The ice storm impacted each and every member of our staff significantly. I was without power for 5 days. Some were out for 21 days! Sent my family to Atlanta – I had to work. I was without power for 5 days. Some were out for 21 days! Sent my family to Atlanta – I had to work. Kids in school for a full week while many were without power. Kids in school for a full week while many were without power.

7 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Radar KPAH Reflectivity & METARs 6 PM Monday 12 AM Tuesday

8 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Radar KPAH Reflectivity & METARs 6 AM Tuesday 12 PM Tuesday

9 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 PM Friday (23 rd )

10 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 PM Monday

11 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 AM Tuesday

12 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 PM Tuesday

13 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 AM Wednesday

14 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment mb Theta-e Conv. 800mb Wind Midnight Monday

15 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment mb Theta-e Conv. 800mb Wind 6 AM Tuesday

16 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment mb Theta-e Conv. 800mb Wind 12PM Tuesday

17 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment mb Theta-e Conv. 800mb Wind 6 PM Tuesday

18 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment mb Theta-e Conv. 800mb Wind 12 AM Wednesday

19 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment Sounding At KPAH (GFS) 6 PM Monday

20 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment Sounding At KPAH 12 AM Tuesday

21 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment Sounding At KPAH 6 AM Tuesday

22 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment Sounding At KPAH 12 PM Tuesday

23 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment Sounding At KPAH 6 PM Tuesday

24 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment Sounding At KPAH 12 AM Wednesday

25 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Latent Heat Concerns When water freezes it goes from liquid to solid phase. Liquid is a higher energy state than solid, so energy will be released when this transition occurs. The energy is in the form of heat which warms the air. 10 PM 12 AM 2 AM

26 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm The Perfect Storm Sub-freezing air in place for over 72 hours before storm. Persistent southwest flow aloft with cool northeast flow at the surface. Persistent low-level forcing for lift, with lots of moisture streaming into the region. No instability  lighter rain rates  efficient icing Latent heating continuously offset by cool northeast surface flow. Temperatures staying at or below freezing.

27 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Forecast Confidence 1.Persistent trends in successive runs of a single model. 24+ hours of consistency leads to increased confidence. 2.Personal experience can lead to forecast confidence. “I’ve seen this many times.” – pattern recognition. 3.Clustering of the operational models around a common solution. 4.#3 is a baby step toward Ensemble Forecast Systems.

28 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Forecast Confidence  Long Term Noticed this pattern on 4 runs of the GFS over a 2 day period. European model very similar. Recognized the pattern as one that could lead to an unpleasant winter scenario for our area. Aware that these models typically depict major large- scale events very well and very early (7-10days out).

29 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Forecast Confidence  Long Term ILZ094-KYZ005> MASSAC-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...METROPOLIS...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD... SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE 302 PM CST TUE JAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 324 PM CST TUE JAN DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 125 PM CST TUE JAN LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKING MORE LIKELY AT SOME POINT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

30 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Signs of a Big Event

31 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm SREF Signs of a Big Event SREF 9 AM Monday Chance of FZRA & 1”/24 hrs QPF Valid 6 PM Tuesday

32 January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm SREF Signs of a Big Event The GFS and ECMWF nailed the synoptic setting for the event 7 days ahead of time. Model QPFs averaging ~2.5”. Strong signal for 1” and 2” 24 hour QPFs in the SREF. Extreme QPF collocated with high probability of freezing rain in SREF. SREF Mean indicating 250% of normal precipitable water with no instability.

33 Are You Really Prepared? It was an interesting event in many ways… Plus 5 counties In SW Indiana Disaster Declarations

34PreparationPreparation Have an up-to-date disaster kitHave an up-to-date disaster kit Gas up your vehiclesGas up your vehicles Have cash on handHave cash on hand Think about your petsThink about your pets Test your backup generator - fill with gasTest your backup generator - fill with gas Fill extra gas cans for generator and vehiclesFill extra gas cans for generator and vehicles Have a plan for what to do with your family if you have to workHave a plan for what to do with your family if you have to work Prepare for no communications – HAM radio?Prepare for no communications – HAM radio? Create a plan in the event you cannot contact everyone (Call down chart ): We had 1 person MIA for a period of timeCreate a plan in the event you cannot contact everyone (Call down chart ): We had 1 person MIA for a period of time

35 During storm… Use ice/snow to pack coolers of frozen – refrigerated foodsUse ice/snow to pack coolers of frozen – refrigerated foods Fill bathtub with water to use in toiletsFill bathtub with water to use in toilets If you have a camper or motor home – set this up as residenceIf you have a camper or motor home – set this up as residence Gas fire logs (non vented) to heat homesGas fire logs (non vented) to heat homes Monitor radio for possible shelters, places to buy gas/groceries, updates to power situation.Monitor radio for possible shelters, places to buy gas/groceries, updates to power situation. Monitor damage area for signs of improvement in order to get what you needMonitor damage area for signs of improvement in order to get what you need Check on neighbors/friends – lend a helping hand when you are ableCheck on neighbors/friends – lend a helping hand when you are able

36 Will it ever happen again? Not likely, but….. It could happen this season or next! The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, 2009