1 The Scale of a Sustainable Bioenergy Resource. 2.

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Scale of a Sustainable Bioenergy Resource

2

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Corn Harvest Ethanol consumes 29% of the US corn harvest, but provides only 2% of US transportation energy

6 (Johansson and Azar, Climatic Change, 2007)

7 (Fargione et al., Science, 2008)

1) Scale of the Resource 2) Crop Yields 3) Land Areas 4) Energy Conversion Pathways 8

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) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE) 2) Exclude agriculture-to- forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1) 3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA) 4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands.

11 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, ES&T, 2008)

12 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, ES&T, 2008)

Field Trials Unplanned Experiments EBI Model Inter-comparison Top-Down Yields from Carbonyl Sulfide 13

(Tilman et al., Science, 2006; Schmer et al., PNAS, 2008) 14

 Native Grass Field Trials (DeBolt, University of Kentucky)  Abandoned Coal Mines and Secondary Forests (Fox, University of Kentucky) 15

An Unplanned Experiment… County: Logan, ND 16

 Comparison for field sites  Comparison for regional area estimates of marginal lands 17

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 Airborne Measurements (Blake, UC Irvine; Vay, NASA/Langley; Montzka NOAA/ESRL)  Regional Atmospheric Model (Carmichael, U Iowa)  Ecosystem Model (Collatz, NASA/GSFC) 19 (Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

20 (Campbell et al., Science, 2008) Drawdown COS (ppt) Drawdown CO2 (ppm) TotalModel Components

County-Level Areas Tracking Current Expansion 21

County – County-level total crop area based on USDA data – , annual HYDE – 5 minute, based on state-level data – , decadal SAGE – 5 minute, based on state-level data – , decadal 22

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% 97% 30-40%92%80-90%75% 45-47% 20% 27

28 a) Ethanolb) Bioelectricity (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

Corn Switchgrass 29 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

Corn Switchgrass 30 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

 Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant  Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles 31

 Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant  Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles Ethanol Bio- electric 32

 Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant  Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles Ethanol Bio- electric Bioelectricity averages 75% greater distance 33

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35 Thank you! Elliott Campbell tel: skype: elliott.campbell

Area to meet U.S. Transportation Demand 36