Greenhouse Effect from Carbon Neutral:

Human Causes of Climate Change UNEP:

2009 State of the Climate Report US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration rez.pdf

2009 State of the Climate Report

A comprehensive review of key climate indicators confirms the world is warming and the past decade was the warmest on record. More than 300 scientists from 48 countries analyzed data on 37 climate indicators, including sea ice, glaciers and air temperatures. A more detailed review of 10 of these indicators, selected because they are clearly and directly related to surface temperatures, all tell the same story: global warming is undeniable State of the Climate Report In Summary:

Thompson Reuters Humanitarian Alert Net What does it mean? Long Term Changes

mangroves.html

flood-relief What does it mean? Extreme Events

What we can say is that global warming has an effect on the probability and intensity of extreme events. This is true for precipitation as well as temperature, because the amount of water vapour that the air carries is a strong function of temperature. So the frequency of extremely heavy rain and floods increases as global warming increases. But at times and places of drought, global warming can increase the extremity of temperature and associated events such as forest fires. Dr James Hansen: What Climate Change Looks Like... So Far ike.pdf Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

anomalies-map full_en.pdf

The consequences of climate change are already unfolding. We are “locked in” to further increases in temperature and related impacts. These two factors influence next steps. In Summary:

Climate Change and Conflict Climate change impacts water, agriculture, health; leads to urbanization, migration. These impacts will create conflict. Resolution of conflict depends on governance/local resilience/adaptive capacity. Poor governance – greater chance of instability and violence. Summarized from A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War International Alert, November

Some examples: Mali vs. Chad: different response to long term drought Haiti versus Dominican Republic: response to extreme storms British Columbia – Pine Beetle – Fires – Institutional Response/Regional Cooperation Many factors involved – how do governments react? See Climate of Conflict

Key country factors in climate –conflict resolution: Political stability Economic strength Food security Existing pressures from migration/urbanization Consequences of failure to adapt: Malnutrition, starvation, violence, migration From Climate of Conflict

Responding to climate change and avoiding conflict: key points Adaptation as primary focus in LDC’s, NOT mitigation (climate change will happen) Build strong communities and institutions to increase local resilience and security Pursue adaptations based on local strengths AND climate science (know local impacts of long term trends) Regional interdependence, international cooperation and support will also be important From Climate of Conflict

Where do you fit in?

A: States facing a high risk of armed conflict as a knock-on consequence of climate change: 11. Colombia 23. Indonesia 34. Philippines 36. Senegal 41. Sri Lanka B: States facing a high risk of political instability as a knock-on consequence of climate change: 4. Belarus 5. Brazil 21. Jamaica 23. Kenya 32. Mexico 52. Ukraine From Climate of Conflict (International Alert) Conflict: current or recent war, poverty and inequality, bad governance, corruption, arbitrary authority, poor systems of justice, weak institutions Instability: arbitrary rule, transition from dictatorship or war, under development, lack of technical capacity

Source: World Bank Environment Department June

Summary The countries least responsible for the problem will bear the greatest impact. Issue of global justice, calls for international cooperation and support for adaptation – not just aid in time of crisis. World wide benefits: peace, security, stability, sustainable development.

Other Resources UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium (latest science background) Climate Action Network (networking-NGO’s) Small Island Developing States Network (networking -- Jamaica) Facebook: Christina Ora, Solomon Islands (networking -- activist) Oxfam (adaptation -- what works; DRR example, Kenya) UNFCC National Adaptation Programme of Action (national strategies: Senegal, Tanzania) php php UNFCC Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptations in Developing Countries (regional details, adaptation strategies) World Bank (Market based solutions for G-77) International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (IPCC WG II) (international framework, tools) International Alert: Climate Change, Conflict and Fragility (2009) alert.org/pdf/Climate_change_conflict_and_fragility_Nov09.pdf (adaptation issues and approaches, Philippines example) alert.org/pdf/Climate_change_conflict_and_fragility_Nov09.pdf

emissions (1000 Tonnes)% world totalpopulationtonnes per capitaGDP per capita Argentina183, ,518, ,726 Belarus66, ,471, ,166 Brazil368, ,390, ,220 Canada557, ,212, ,669 China6,538, ,339,270, ,678 Colombia63, ,576, ,087 Hong Kong39, ,026, ,826 Indonesia397, ,180, ,329 Jamaica13, ,730, ,390 Kenya11, ,863, Mexico471, ,396, ,135 Philippines70, ,013, ,746 Senegal5, ,861, Sri Lanka12, ,410, ,041 Tanzania6, ,040, Ukraine317, ,871, ,542 USA5,838, ,020, , emissions data collected by CDIAC for UNFCC CO2 emissions only from burning of fossil fuels and cement production -- not things like deforestation, etc. Population: national estimates or 2010 estimates from UN Dept of Econ and Social Affairs GDP: IMF, Background data and sources