Path to the New Energy Efficient Economy

What on Earth Are These? World Energy Use World Population World Gross Income

Converting Heat to Work Since pre-history we knew how to: Work Heat Industrial Revolution to: Work Heat

Newcomen’s Steam Engine ~1712

Revolutionary Change Transforms  Economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%  Place: cities grow from 5% to 50%  Family: parents leave home to work  Geography: steam ship and railroad  Technology  Population

Economic Explosion  Pre-industrial revolution per capita annual income: $600  Industrial revolution US/Europe income $600 to $18,000  Increases 30x!

Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

Single Most Important Event in Human History

We’ve Come a Long Way…  Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5%  Watt’s steam engine: 1%  Gasoline engines: 30%  Coal Rankine cycles: 35%  Turbines: 40%  Diesel engines: 50%  Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%

But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels 2. Employ combustion to release heat CH 4 +2(O N 2 )=CO 2 +2H 2 0+(NOx+SOx+…) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels  In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels  Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

World Oil Near Peak Production Peak production = 2015 Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994

World Natural Gas Near Peak Production Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004

World Coal Peak Production 2050? Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

Environmental Perspective “Using energy in today’s ways leads to more environmental damage than any other peaceful human activity.” The Economist, 1990.

95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Greenhouse Gas Trends Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

Coincident Global Warming Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global Climate?”, American Geophysical Union, 2005.

Cincinnati Days > 90 F 18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High Emissions ) Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Spring Rainfall Increases 30% (High Emission) Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up Fossil Fuel Resources Economy Energy Out Atmosphere Fossil Fuel Energy CO 2 & Pollution Linear Model of Energy Use

“The need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable.” U.S. National Academy of Sciences and counterpart academies from 12 other nations. 2009

State Renewable Electricity Standards 29 States and District of Columbia Mandatory Voluntary Source: Securing the Transition to a Clean and Sustainable Energy Economy, Deyette, J., Union Concerned Scientists, 2011 Ohio: 12.5% of electricity from renewable energy by 2025

U.S. CO 2 Stabilization Scenario Source: Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

Energy Efficiency Lowest Cost Source of “New Power” Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011

Reduce U.S. CO 2 by 20% at Negative Cost (i.e. while making money) Source:Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”, McKinsey and Company, December 2007

Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Source: Laitner, S., American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, June 25, 2008

Energy Efficiency in California Source: Rosenthal, A. California Energy Commission, 2006

Energy Efficiency in Ohio  22% of electricity from efficiency savings by 2025 (AEP at  All new schools must be LEED Silver  The Ohio Department of Development: grants and loans (  U.S. Department of Energy: no-cost industrial energy assessments (

Remarkably  Energy Efficiency –Increases business competitiveness –Increases resource availability –Increases environmental health