Key problems in the evidence base in Britain's migration debate The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford COMPAS Breakfast Briefing 13 May 2011

#1: Emigration Sample survey is only source

#2: Immigration Discrepancies across sources

#3: Net Migration Flows do not match stocks

#4: Immigration Status No systematic data Within the UK migrant population (“stock”) – How many are on Tier 1 visas? Tier 2? Other? – How many on student visas are employed? – How do skills vary across different immigration statuses?

#5: Local area statistics: Imprecise estimates

#6: Public Opinion Who counts as a migrant? Government stats vs. members of public – Permanent/temporary – Students – Skills, resources – Legal/illegal Mismatched definitions  mismatched policies?

#7: Impact on Public Services Lack of data collection and analysis Lack of data collection on migrant status of users of services Scarcity of systematic research on migrants’ role in provision of public services

#8: Impact on Housing Insufficient research Impact on house prices, rents Indirect effects on social housing

#9: Student migration: Uncertain numbers, compliance, impacts Contribution to net migration – Visas vs. IPS – Exits “potential” vs. actual non-compliance Impact on job market for British graduates

#10: Irregular/illegal Migrants Numbers, characteristics Uncertainty – 524,000 – 947,000 estimated at end of 2007 (based on methods in 2005 Home Office report) Questions of definitions (e.g. semi- compliance)