Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 1 Climate adaptation as normal business Steve Dovers Director, Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian National University Charles Darwin Symposium October 2011

IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009)2

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers3 Coverage 1. A “tipping point” in the climate debate. 2. How big a challenge is adaptation? 3. The state of adaptation literature and policy. 4. That climate change might be easier than we think – some examples. 5. Directions for research and policy.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers4 Propositions 1. We are in danger of a policy and research trajectory around climate change adaptation that wastes time, reinvents wheels and ignores existing knowledge and capacities. 2. We might get 1/3 or even 2/3 towards world- best adaptation policy without thinking too hard or inventing anything new.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers5 The real “tipping point” … in the climate change debate 20 years of mostly natural science – yes, it is happening, and some is locked in.  so we have to adapt. 20 years of mostly natural science – yes, it is happening, and some is locked in.  so we have to adapt. A question not just for science, but for social science and other knowledge systems A question not just for science, but for social science and other knowledge systems … a difficult transition. … a difficult transition.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers6 Adaptation vs. mitigation policy Mitigation – very difficult politically:  but, given its root cause in modern economies (fossil energy use), with agreement and a target, amenable to ‘systemic’ policy interventions (ETS, tax, energy policy). Mitigation – very difficult politically:  but, given its root cause in modern economies (fossil energy use), with agreement and a target, amenable to ‘systemic’ policy interventions (ETS, tax, energy policy). Adaptation – newer issue, not amenable to systemic policy interventions:  variation across impacts, jurisdictions, sectors, places.  need varied and multiple policy interventions. Adaptation – newer issue, not amenable to systemic policy interventions:  variation across impacts, jurisdictions, sectors, places.  need varied and multiple policy interventions..… mitigation is a diabolical policy problem, adaptation is a messy one..… mitigation is a diabolical policy problem, adaptation is a messy one.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers7 Predicting policy impact Clear definitions of (un)certainty in climate science (IPCC), and a capacity to model and predict impact of major mitigation policy options (ETS, etc). Clear definitions of (un)certainty in climate science (IPCC), and a capacity to model and predict impact of major mitigation policy options (ETS, etc). Very little prospect of predicting the effectiveness of adaptation policy options:  eg. what likelihood a strategic policy assessment impacting on sectoral policy; or an education program causing behaviour change? Very little prospect of predicting the effectiveness of adaptation policy options:  eg. what likelihood a strategic policy assessment impacting on sectoral policy; or an education program causing behaviour change? A strong justification for no-regrets options – what we should be doing anyway. A strong justification for no-regrets options – what we should be doing anyway.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers8 State of literature & policy The adaptation policy literature: The adaptation policy literature: Strong on general ends, a lack of examples and models of adaptation, and little instruction on the policy means. Strong on general ends, a lack of examples and models of adaptation, and little instruction on the policy means. A self-referencing climate literature, not drawing on:  experience in relevant sectors eg. emergency management, NRM, public health.  relevant disciplines eg. public policy, law, public administration, institutional theory. ……. stuff we already know. A self-referencing climate literature, not drawing on:  experience in relevant sectors eg. emergency management, NRM, public health.  relevant disciplines eg. public policy, law, public administration, institutional theory. ……. stuff we already know.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers9 State of policy debate: Similar…  adaptation as a “new” policy problem.  struggling for purchase and direction.  firms, councils and communities confused. Similar…  adaptation as a “new” policy problem.  struggling for purchase and direction.  firms, councils and communities confused. Not connecting to:  existing practical, professional and academic knowledge and capacities.  a long history of documented policy experience. Dovers, SR and Hezri, AA (2010). Policy and institutional change: the means to the end of adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 1: Not connecting to:  existing practical, professional and academic knowledge and capacities.  a long history of documented policy experience. Dovers, SR and Hezri, AA (2010). Policy and institutional change: the means to the end of adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 1:

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers10 Human societies have long been adapting to changes in climate, through science, institutions, policy, management, behaviour – especially extreme climate and weather events. Human societies have long been adapting to changes in climate, through science, institutions, policy, management, behaviour – especially extreme climate and weather events. Nowhere more so than in Australia – a highly variable climate – should be world’s best… Nowhere more so than in Australia – a highly variable climate – should be world’s best… Adaptation: how hard, really?

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers11 Climate change: a simple typology 1. Not too dissimilar to existing variability over recent centuries, within institutional & societal memory, but to which we could adapt better. Up to 2 0 C? Routine problems. 2. Significantly exacerbated variability – droughts, floods, cyclones, heatwaves, vector-borne diseases, etc – not outside lived and historical experience, but very challenging. Extremes become common. 2– 4 0 C? Non-routine problems. 3. Change and variability beyond human experience and institutional memory, threatening productive base of societies, inundation of major cities, health of large parts of the population, economic stability, integrity of evolutionary processes, etc. Strong non-stationarity, extremes the norm. Over 4 0 C? Complex, unbounded problems. ( Typology of disaster problems: Handmer J & Dovers S 2007 The handbook of emergency and disaster policies and institutions. Earthscan.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers12 An optimistic proposition… Existing, evidenced proposals provide a basis for a climate adaptation response, certainly addressing level 1, and into level 2.  1/3 or even 2/3rds to a world’s best practice adaptation policy, without having to think hard? Existing, evidenced proposals provide a basis for a climate adaptation response, certainly addressing level 1, and into level 2.  1/3 or even 2/3rds to a world’s best practice adaptation policy, without having to think hard? (Level 3 is another matter, but acting is better than not…) (Level 3 is another matter, but acting is better than not…) Six sectors – what should we be doing already and know how to do that would also serve to decrease vulnerability to climate change. Six sectors – what should we be doing already and know how to do that would also serve to decrease vulnerability to climate change.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers13 1. Water resource management  Water management = climate variability, in allocation for human consumption and for environmental values:  Full implementation of NWI = ability to cope with increased variability = world’s best practice in adaptation-friendly water policy.

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers14 2. Rural towns  Investigations of local and regional economic vulnerability produce familiar lists of strategies that should be pursued for other reasons:  Diversification of employment, niche market development, local skills training, increased collaboration amongst firms, better local socio- economic data… Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on Urban Settlements reports – see

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers15 3: Biodiversity  The vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change would be addressed by familiar, existing proposals:  Landscape-wide approaches to vegetation management and connectivity, well resourced and managed reserve network, greater longevity & coordination of policy programs, comprehensive long term ecological monitoring…

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers16 4: Remote Indigenous communities  Impacts of climate change on health and well- being in remote communities suggests things we should do anyway:  Decent medical services, workable communication systems, standard education opportunities, support of local resource-based enterprises, housing …

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers17 5: Urban settlements Address past neglect of urban planning and energy reform -- correct existing idiocies: Address past neglect of urban planning and energy reform -- correct existing idiocies: Wrongly oriented houses dependent on air- conditioning; private car reliance designed into the structure of cities; needlessly inefficient industrial processes; inadequate developer contributions; poor public transport, developing waterfronts… Wrongly oriented houses dependent on air- conditioning; private car reliance designed into the structure of cities; needlessly inefficient industrial processes; inadequate developer contributions; poor public transport, developing waterfronts…

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers18 6: Emergency management  The sharp end of climate adaptation, with well- known options…  Better cross-sectoral coordination; communications, community scale capacity, building standards, remote and regional livelihoods, urban planning that reduces rather than increases vulnerability, etc.  the unimplemented recommendations of numerous inquiries.

Implications for research… Reconsider the disciplinary mix to match the “tipping point” in debates – beyond science. Seek relevant, applicable but yet-to-be-engaged theory, methods, policy practice:  eg: urban studies, social psychology, public health, emergency and disaster policy, natural resource management, public policy... Identify cases of existing adaptation, or of proposals with adaptation and other benefits. 19Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers

Implications for policy An “audit” of existing and proposed policy options, coordinated across sectors for synergies – embed in normal business Matched with an audit of barriers to adaptation – a legislative and policy assessment process Regular strategic policy assessment to embed adaptation considerations in policy across all sectors A comprehensive data base and clearing house for information, data, examples – a chronic gap. Dovers, S Precautionary policy assessment for sustainability. In: Fisher et al (eds). Implementing the Precautionary Principle: Perspectives and Prospects. Edward Elgar. 20 Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers

(In)conclusion Australia can get 1/3 or even 2/3 the way to world’s best climate adaptation without having to think too hard? … using many no-regrets options? Climate adaptation = normal business. 21Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers

IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009)22