New Frontiers for the Nongmingong: China’s Landscape of Intra-Provincial Labor Migration Doug Shultz Geography and Economics Advisors: Professors Anne Knowles and Will Pyle

The story Migrant conditions – Unofficial residence status – Denied access to many social services, resources – Discrimination – Rural to urban capital flows Urbanization in China – Cultural Revolution Hukou System established – Open Up and Reform policies Development of the nongmingong – Western Development Emergence of intra-provincial migration model – 2008 Global Economic Crisis Westward movement of industry and labor Strengthening intra-provincial migration

The questions We know intra-provincial migration is increasing, so: – Who? – Where? – WHY? – How can this knowledge inform migration reform?

How can we understand it? Data – Chinese Household Income Project Survey (CHIPS), 2002 Geographic Analysis – Distance – Regionalization – Spatial relationships – Visualization Econometric Analysis – Intra- and inter-provincial migration models – Compensation models – Attitude models

What do we find? Compensation Variables – Income – Pension – Medical insurance – Unemployment insurance – Housing Inter-provincial vs. Intra- provincial Models – Compensation – Time – Family ties – Property ownership

Study area

Intra-provincial migration rates

Income levels

Provision of pension fund

Provision of medical insurance

Provision of unemployment insurance

Provision of housing

Average family size

Average age of migrant

Conclusions Pull factors – NOT pension, medical insurance, unemployment insurance – Housing Push factors – Family size tends to be lower – Migrants tend to be younger

Migration model LPMs Destination cities – Baseline is Beijing—no model 2 type migration Province where hukou is registered Males more likely to be in model 2 than model 1 Minorities are 5.5% less likely CP members are 10.2% less likely Less likely if you have finished high, junior high, or elementary school. No significant effect of college. 1 year more in urban area, 3.7% less likely; 1more year with current employer, 1.3% less likely More likely if you are healthy Commercial workers and service workers are more likely

Now what? Further research and analysis – Additional controls Average provincial economic conditions Legacy controls Macro flows from the Chinese Census – More robust geographic analysis Network analysis Distance measurements Toward the real world…

Why is this important? Chinese migration policy China’s sustainability – Environmental – Economic Global economy Socialism vs. Capitalism