Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors K EVIN S. M C K ELVEY 1, J EFFREY P. C OPELAND 1, M ICHAEL.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors K EVIN S. M C K ELVEY 1, J EFFREY P. C OPELAND 1, M ICHAEL K. S CHWARTZ 1, J EREMY S. L ITTELL 2, K EITH B. A UBRY 3, J OHN R. S QUIRES 1, S EAN A. P ARKS 1, M ARKETA M. E LSNER 2, G UILLAUME S. M AUGER 2 1 USFS, RMRS, Missoula MT, 2 Climate Impacts Group, U. Washington, 3 USFS,PNW, Olympia WA. Eco. Apps, available in preprint

Historical Wolverine Locations (1827 to 1960) Aubry et al. 2007

Late May in northwestern Alaska Wolverine Reproductive Dens Weaning late April to early May requires snow Magoun and Copeland (1998) 5 females, 15 dens

All wolverine dens with high quality spatial coordinates U.S. Canada Scandinavia High resolution snow coverage MODIS (daily, 0.5km, worldwide) 7 yrs data Chose May 15 as date for weaning Persistent snow cover through May 15 Copeland, J.P., et al The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine: Do climatic constraints limit their geographic distribution? Canadian Journal of Zoology 88:

Scandinavia From: Copeland et al. 2010

Stats for dens North America 562 dens 65 North America 327 Norway 160 Sweden 10 Finland 550 (97.9%) were in snow pixels ALL were snow dens Majority in pixels covered 5+ years From: Copeland et al. 2010

Notable misses: Quebec (extirpated) Southern Rockies (extirpated) Southern Scandinavia (recolonizing) Range matches snow Range map: Jokkmokk SE, 2005 From: Copeland et al. 2010

89% of locations, all ages, both sexes, all seasons Pattern stronger in summer in all study areas From: Copeland et al. 2010

Dispersal analysis based on resistance modeling

Greater Yellowstone area From: Copeland et al. 2010

Schwartz et al Wolverine gene flow across a narrow climatic niche. Ecology 90: Straight path

Greater Yellowstone area From: Copeland et al Genetic models indicate high preference for movement within snow-defined areas

Montana Idaho Greater Yellowstone Area, WY From: Schwartz et al. 2009

Conclusions: Wolverine are an organism adapted to the “Hudsonian” zone Historical range Den requirements Worldwide current range Habitat use patterns Dispersal patterns Areas with persistent snow cover through May 15 provides effective proxy for habitat requirements Past, Present---Future?

10 IPCC AR4 models screened for regional skill Average, cool (pcm1), hot (miroc 3.2) , Historical reconstruction A1B emission scenario Delta downscaling to 1/16 deg VIC to generate spring snowpack Best fit crosswalk to May 15 MODIS data Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_ USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf

Resample to 0.5km; 93.7% correct classification Historical downscaled VICMay 15 MODIS (Copeland et al. 2010) From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Historical Average Average 67% retained 37% retained From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Hot Average Cool From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Historical From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Snow polygons > 1000 km Average From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Sierra Nevada (Tahoe area)