Democracy, Religion, and Politics in the Middle East Miriam F. Elman Associate Professor Political Science and PARCC April 2011

Why Didn’t Anyone Predict the Revolutions in Tunisia or Egypt? Despite the ingredients that would lead one to expect that the days of these regimes would be numbered, the consensus among Middle East experts has been that authoritarian government is deeply entrenched in the region

How Do We Account for the Democratic Deficit in the Arab Middle East? This is not a problem for the larger Muslim world, where democracy is thriving “The Middle East is home to some of the world’s most tenacious authoritarian rulers, whose very longevity calls into question the potential for rapid transformation in the region” (Marsha Posusney and Michele Angrist, Authoritarianism in the Middle East, 2005)

“It is well known that the ‘democracy gap’ is particularly wide in the countries of the Arab world, not one of which is democratic, and all of which have predominantly or overwhelmingly Muslim populations…the difference between Arab and non-Arab Muslim-majority countries in this regard is striking.” (Alfred Stepan and Graeme Robertson, “An ‘Arab’ More than a ‘Muslim’ Electoral Gap,” Journal of Democracy, Vol. 14, No. 3 (July 1993): 30-44

The Failure to Predict: Disciplinary Blinders 1.Political actors react to their external environments in a variety of different and often unpredictable ways 2.States and societies vary a great deal across time and place 3.Human beings learn, remember, copy, and are inspired to act (and this holds true for protesting citizens and their repressive governments!)

Comparative democratization: the role of chance and contingency >>Mohamed Bouazisi >>El General’s rap song >>Wael Ghonim >>”Yes, we can!”

A Hindsight Account of the Winter of Revolution, Security apparatus 2.Oil economies and “rentier” states 3.Opposition movements 4.Civil Society Political Entrepreneurship: Twitter Revolutions?

Explaining and moving beyond “stubborn authoritarianism” Most Middle Eastern governments have been able to maintain extensive and effective security and military agencies (Patrimonial militaries rather than professional ones predominate: personal allegiance to the state determines staffing decisions)

The particular nature of Middle East economies (the rentier state) Fareed Zakaria: “History shows that a government’s need to tax its people forces it to become more responsive and representative of its people. Middle Eastern regimes ask little of their people and in return give little to them” (2004).

Strong executive and weak legislatures 1.Elections and party systems but ruling parties hold majority of seats and bolster executive’s party. 2.Incumbent elites manipulate elections. 3.Parliaments not a check on executive power (opposition parties are weak) 4.Opposition parties work against each other

Key Challenges: Moving from Regime Change to Democracy The Rule of Law A Culture of Tolerance Without the rule of law, elections and party competition can generate violence at home and abroad Without a culture of tolerance, elections and party competition give way to illiberal democracy

Key Challenges: Extending the Franchise to Minorities Should democracy protect vulnerable members of society when their values and practices are at odds with those of the majority? Can democracy privilege a religious and/or ethnic majority, or must it enshrine equality and non-discrimination by law?

The Inclusion of Religious Political Parties Consensus in the social science literature on democratization is that inclusion fosters moderation; exclusion generates radicalism True, but only under certain conditions: 1.Parties must nationalize and give up their arms 2.Electoral rules must provide incentives to appeal to the median voter

Implications for US Foreign Policy 1. The US must stand on the right side of history 2. Heaven help us, but GW Bush was right all along! 3. The US must invest in populations, not in dictators

Some final remarks…. Understanding Democracy in the United States The Case of the Christian Cross in California’s Mojave Desert

THANK YOU AND ENJOY YOUR STAY IN THE US AND AT THE MAXWELL SCHOOL