Another world food crisis? Behind the headlines on global hunger 24 February 2011 Will Masters Professor of Food Policy, Friedman School of Nutrition, Tufts University Director, Nutrition Collaborative Research Support Program for Africa

Another world food crisis? Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan Feb Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System data ( downloaded Feb 20, All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US No. 2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.

Food price spikes make headlines… April 2008 January 2011

Behind the headlines: A century of food and farm crises Source: Computed from 20 Feb Method detailed in J-B Michel et al., Quantitative Analysis of Culture Using Millions of Digitized Books. Science, Dec : The green revolution : Complacency : Cycles with an upward trend Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books,

Food prices tell the story: Short spikes and long valleys Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France, Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries. Relative price of food on world markets, ( =100) Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, : Complacency

Historical headlines help explain the pattern Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France, Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries. Relative price of food on world markets, ( =100) Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, April 1973 February 1917 August 1918

Looking forward, is the party over? Will food prices now keep rising? Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan Feb Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System data ( downloaded Feb 20, All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US No. 2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.

Will food prices keep rising? Drivers of Long-Term Change Demand increase Population growth Dietary transition Political power Biofuels Land use Export restrictions Environmental damage Climate change Groundwater depletion Soil degradation Evolution of pests Technology & innovation Private investment Farmers, input suppliers Processors/traders Public investment Infrastructure (water, transport, power, telecomm.) R&D (by governments and philanthropies)

Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System data ( downloaded Feb 20, All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US No. 2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice. Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan Feb Weather = climate change? Policy surprises Ethanol Export restrictions/import increases Money supply/inflation/growth Expectations about future prices Speculation about future prices Will food prices keep rising? Drivers of Short-Term Change

Focusing on nutrition: Prices matter, but other things do too! Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France, Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries. Relative price of food on world markets, ( =100) Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, March 13, 2002 World: Many Hungry Mouths Around 815 million people percent of the world's population -- suffer from hunger and malnutrition, mostly in developing countries, said Jacques Diouf, head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. At the all- time low prices of 2002…

Major trends by region –Hunger, poverty and child underweight Outlook for the future –Crop yields and demography The nutrition outlook: Regional patterns and trends

Major trends by region: HungerPoverty Source: FAO estimates, reprinted from the Millennium Development Goals Report New York: United Nations (September 2010). Source: World Bank estimates, reprinted from the Millennium Development Goals Report New York: United Nations (September 2010).

HungerChild underweight Source: FAO estimates, reprinted from the Millennium Development Goals Report New York: United Nations (September 2010). Source: WHO estimates, reprinted from the Millennium Development Goals Report New York: United Nations (September 2010). Major trends by region:

Major trends in selected countries: Steady improvement where child underweight is worst National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years) Selected countries with repeated national surveys Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at

Major trends in selected countries: Mixed results in Africa National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years) Selected countries with repeated national surveys Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at

National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years) Selected countries with repeated national surveys Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at Major trends in selected countries: Mixed results in Africa

USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), Source: Calculated from USDA, PS&D data ( downloaded 7 Nov Results shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat. Outlook for the future: Is Africa’s green revolution finally arriving?

Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural Research and Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): Outlook for the future: Is Africa’s green revolution finally arriving?

Rural population tends to rise and then fall UN Population Projections estimates of urban and rural population, World (total)Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision, released April 2010 at Downloaded 7 Nov Outlook for the future: Demography matters!

We are here: ≈480 m. ≈1.1 b. ≈310 m. ≈1.4 b. Curren rural population Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Rural population estimates and projections are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision). Rising rural population implies decline in land available per person Africa had the world’s largest increase in rural population Rural population by region, Outlook for the future: Demography matters!

Below zero = more land/farmer Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Rural population estimates and projections are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision). Over 2% annual growth for 30 years! Under 1.3% annually, and falling Africa had the fastest and longest rural population growth Rural population growth rates by region, Outlook for the future: Demography matters!

Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Rural population estimates and projections are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision). From >5% annually …to <4% Africa has had the world’s fastest growing cities Africa also had the fastest urban population growth Urban population growth by region, Outlook for the future: Demography matters!

Africa had the world’s most severe demographic burden (>45% ) Source: Calculated from UN Population Projections, 2008 revision (March 2009), at Africa’s long baby boom is finally entering the workforce Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), Outlook for the future: Demography matters! now a demographic gift

Behind the headlines on global hunger: Some conclusions World food prices are high and could keep rising –A spike-and-valley pattern is normal –Pressure for higher prices include grain users’ willingness to pay, especially for use as biofuels and as feed exporters’ willingness to cut their exports in times of scarcity –Potential for lower prices comes mainly from public investment in agricultural R&D and infrastructure World prices matter but other factors also influence nutrition –Income growth and direct interventions have helped many countries –Asia’s high levels of child underweight are slowly improving –Africa will also improve (slowly), through its long-delayed green revolution, and through slower but continued rural population growth

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