Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited AFWA Update Spring 2011 John Zapotocny 13 April 2011

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Overview Mission and Organizational Structure 1 st Weather Group NCEP SPC & AWC Backup Events (15 OWS) 2 nd Weather Group NESDIS VAAC Backup Events (2 WS) Volcanic Ash Forecasting Improvements (16 WS) WRF Status & Plans (16 WS) HQ AFWA – Ops Status & Near Term Initiatives Ops Center Consolidation (A3) UKMO Unified Model Integration (A5/8) Joint Urgent Operation Need (JUON) Effort (A5/8) Air Force Weather Web Services (AFW-WEBS) Progress Report (A5/8) 2

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 3 AFWA Mission Maximizing America’s Power through the Exploitation of Timely, Accurate, and Relevant Weather Information; Anytime, Everywhere F-22 Atlas V EELV Launch C-17 Joint USAF/USA Patrol near Balad AB

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 4 AFWA Structure 22 GSUs 1st Weather Group Offutt AFB 1st Weather Group Offutt AFB FOA Commander Offutt AFB, NE FOA Commander Offutt AFB, NE 26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA 26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA 15 OWS Scott AFB, IL 15 OWS Scott AFB, IL 2 SYOS Offutt AFB 2 SYOS Offutt AFB 2nd Weather Group Offutt AFB 2nd Weather Group Offutt AFB 2 WS Offutt AFB 2 WS Offutt AFB 16 WS Offutt AFB 16 WS Offutt AFB 2 CWSS Hurlburt Fld, FL 2 CWSS Hurlburt Fld, FL 14 WS Asheville, NC 14 WS Asheville, NC 25 OWS D-M AFB, AZ 25 OWS D-M AFB, AZ A3 Offutt AFB A3 A 5/8 Offutt AFB A 5/8 Offutt AFB A 6 Offutt AFB A 6 Offutt AFB CC Staff: DP, DS, FM Offutt AFB CC Staff: DP, DS, FM Offutt AFB

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 5 1 WXG 1st Weather Group Offutt AFB 1st Weather Group Offutt AFB 26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA 26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA 15 OWS Scott AFB, IL 15 OWS Scott AFB, IL 25 OWS D-M AFB, AZ 25 OWS D-M AFB, AZ  Three Operational Weather Squadrons (OWSs)  Characterize the environment in USNORTHCOM AOR  15 OWS (Scott AFB) / 25 OWS (D-M AFB) / 26 OWS (Barksdale AFB)  Ops Mission – provide 24/7 timely, accurate and relevant weather information to AF, Army, Guard & Reserve forces  Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts for 97 airfields  Resource Protection for 348 Total Force locations  Graphical aviation forecasts for North America  Aircrew mission-execution weather briefings  Training Mission – provide initial and up-grade training for 60% of weather career field accessions (enlisted and officer) Mission Execution Characterization / Threat Assessment Developing Airmen F-16s flying an Operation Noble Eagle combat air patrol over the East Coast.

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Operational Backup 15 OWS NCEP SPC/AWC backup mission has fully transitioned to 1 WXG 15 OWS at Scott AFB, IL Events since May 2010 Storm Prediction Center – 3 real-world backups Aviation Weather Center – 3 real-world backups 13 successful rehearsals System infrastructure for SPC/AWC staff relocation in case of a catastrophic outage is retained at Offutt AFB

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 7 2 WXG 2 SYOS 2nd Weather Group Offutt AFB 2nd Weather Group Offutt AFB 2 WS 16 WS 2 CWSS Hurlburt Fld, FL 2 CWSS Hurlburt Fld, FL 14 WS Asheville, NC 14 WS Asheville, NC Global Production Center – Collection, Analysis, Forecasting, Distribution  DoD’s only ‘real-time’ 24/7 weather production for intelligence ops  DoD's only ‘real-time’ 24/7 space environment analysis/forecast capability for JSpOC, NORAD, Space Operators, HF, and GPS users  DoD’s lead agency for decision-enabling applied climatology and weather modeling & simulation  DoD’s only provider for global volcanic ash advisories  Collect/process/disseminate meteorological and space weather info  Critical reachback node for war fighters worldwide  Develop and exploit state-of-the-art weather forecasting models and web services to enhance joint military and intelligence operations  Provide scientific services to improve forecasting for the war fighter  Fielded wx system SMEs; conduct test/eval, wx systems deployment training, and deployed maintenance on tactical wx systems Dust Transport Algorithm Surface Visibility Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis FOB Warhorse Balad, Iraq SWA Dust Visibility Restriction Climatology Forward Deployed Global Hawk Operations Tactical Air Control Party In the Fight

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Operational Backup 2 WS NESDIS – Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Real-world or training backup is required at least quarterly AOR includes CONUS, Northern South America, Caribbean, Pacific Ocean to include Hawaii and Guam, and western Atlantic (blue area) 5 short-term real-world backups (lasting a few hours) Communications Outage (1) Power Outage (2) Fire Drill (1) Manning Issue (1) 3 successful scheduled rehearsals 8

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 9 Volcanic Ash Initiatives 16 WS HYSPLIT Community model developed by Air Resources Lab (ARL/NOAA) Offline model driven by NWP winds to provide volcanic ash dispersion and concentration forecasts Transitions to operations by Summer 2011 WRF-Chem for Volcanic Ash NOAA/ESRL, Univ. of Alaska-Fairbanks, AFWA WRF with in-line GOCART chemistry module – 3D trajectories/particle heights, mass concentration, deposition, and ash fall accumulation Data assimilation efforts are ongoing Ensemble mode under investigation to provide uncertainty information WRF-Chem for VA HYSPLIT

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 10 Dust Modeling Initiatives 16 WS Improved Dust Source Regions from Desert Research Institute (DSR) Accounts for pedologic, hydrologic, chemical, biological, & geomorphic processes along with topography To include Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Northern CENTCOM; IOC - Nov 11 DTA-WRF 15/45-km and DTA-GFS ( SWA, East Asia, Northern Africa) Dust concentration and visibility products (4x daily) WRF-Chem Dust Dust concentration and visibility products using an inline chemistry model and state-of-the-art physics (diagnostic and stochastic forecast products) Increased horizontal resolution (4-km) DA-WRF 45-km to72 hrs (Vis) 30-km to 144 hrs (Stochastic DLP- Dust Lofting Potential); Africa/SWA

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 11 Cloud Forecasting Initiatives 16 WS AFWA Advect Cloud Model (ADVCLD) Global short range cloud cover prediction model Uses GFS winds (U, V, and W) to “advect” clouds forward in time Improved version - Jun 11 AFWA Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model (DCF) Regional & Global cloud cover prediction model Uses statistical correlations to compute forecasts Cloud Optical Properties (COP) Algorithms improve cloud top height assignment and identify transmissive cirrus clouds (ice) Used in cloud analysis model - IOC 4CY11 DCF 15-km Total Cloud Cover Satellite Image Current Cloud MaskCOP Cloud Mask

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 12 WRF at AFWA 16 WS WRF Operational Configuration Yonsei Univ PBL Physics LIS - LoBC from NOAH LSM WRFDA – Transitioning to GSI 72hrs, 48 or 144hrs, & 30hrs 57 Vertical Levels 10 mb model top Kain-Fritsch Convection 45km, 15km, & 5km domains Near-Term Plans Initialize WRF with UK Unified Model run at AFWA Implement hi-res (5/1.67km) domains in conjunction with Joint Unified Operational Need Statement (JUONS) Implement regional ensembles—N & S Hemisphere w/Tropical Stripe circa 20km; 2-6 relocatable 4km domains Control member may supplant 15km deterministic domains Adjust design to account for JUONS requirements

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win HQ AFWA & Near Term Initiatives of Interest 13

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 14 A3 Operations, Training and Evaluations AFW Heads Up Display Intellipedia A3 Director Offutt AFB A3O Current Operations A3O A3TTrainingA3TTrainingA3V Standardization and Evaluations A3V OL-H Ft. Huachuca OL-H Knowledge Center AFWA Ops Center Similar Concept to DoD Air/Space Operations Center  Lead AFWA Operations Center 24x7x365  Operate the AFW HUD: Maintain awareness of 800+ AFWWS components and global weather operations  Standards/Evaluations (SEPWO), Tactics, Metrics  Develop non-formal weather training (CBTs) and COMET Liaison  Provides AFWA Notices to the Field: interface for AFW policy, AFWA production environment, lead command, A-staff, and the user community  DMSP coordinator and user representative F-16 Departs Balad AB on CAS Mission DMSP F-18, launched 18 Oct 2009

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 15 AFWA Ops Center Operations Focal Point - 24x7x365 Requirements – AFWA/CC org box is AFWA Front Door Entry point for operational support needs & new requirements AFWA Ops Center extends AFWA/CC org box monitor to 24x7x365 Problem Reports/Ops Coord – AFWA Ops Center Single Telephone entry point DSN Commercial (402) Toll Free (800) NIPR SIPR COPC Focal Point for All Operational Issues

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 16 Display status of AFWA internal production systems and external infrastructure Displays status of AF Weather fielded systems in KML format with wide choice of overlays Internal/External Production Monitoring Fielded Systems Monitoring AFWA Ops Center Operations Focal Point 24x7x365

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win A5/A8 Strategic Plans, Requirements and Programs WxPod AFW WEBS A5/8 Director Offutt AFB A5CCapabilitiesA5CCapabilitiesA5R Operational Capability Requirements A5R A8F Lead Command Management A8F OL-K Norman, OK OL-K A8PProgramsA8PPrograms A8X Strategic Plans A8X  Performs capabilities-based requirements development for AFWWS  Plans, Programs & Fields AF Weather Weapon System  Directs Sustainment of Fielded Programs Worldwide  Coordinates with DoD and National Weather Agencies TMQ-53 HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter rescue mission from Balad AB PDR FMQ-22 17

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 18 Unified Model at AFWA UM Integration into Operations Implement initial capability at 25km global resolution Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions for regional WRF domains Transitioning many regional worldwide domains (45/15/5km resolution) to fewer larger domains (15/5km resolution) to 144hrs Serve data to warfighters via AFW Web Enterprise Services Upgrade resolution to ~17km in support of Joint Unified Operational Needs Statement Used to drive very hi-res regional WRF domains (5/1.67km) Expand to 384hr forecast length for long-term ops planning Investigating prospects of enhancing National Unified Ensemble with UM members – NUOPC interest item

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 19 JUON Persistent Surveillance System High-res models to support PSS aerostats Collaborating w/ UKMO, NCAR, ARL UM: 17km global WRF: 5km SWA and 1.67km Iraq/Afghanistan domains 3DWF: 50m over select locations New HPC to run models 51 Tflops - Unclass, 14 Tflops - Secret Collecting/encoding automated aerostat observations for resource protection, WRF initialization Surface data in METAR format Upper air data in AMDAR format USJFCOM Photo of PGSS by Air Force Staff Sgt. Vanessa Valentine Photo downloaded from Lockheed Martin PTDS website

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 20 AFW-WEBS Update 20 AFW Enterprise Portal IOC achieved Unclass/Secret (SCI Apr 2011) Optimizing MetWatch tools Add’l Satellite Enhancements Drawing Tools A/N Obs/TAFs Web Feature Service request Integrated Styles into services Further customization of data Save Preferences capability

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 21 AFW-WEBS Up Next Integrate Google Earth Plug-in Ingest 100% of Level III NEXRAD data Further improve meteograms/Skew-T Develop in “Flex”—interactive Continue transition off JAAWIN Expand product suite Analysis products Specialized Models Develop add’l user features User-defined thresholds Sharing profiles Value-added Interactive Web Applications & Services Integrate OWS holdings

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 22 Questions?