State of College Admission 2011 David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research NACAC Presented November 10, 2011 CACNY Meeting, New York

Components of Report Counseling Trends Survey Admission Trends Survey External Data –US Department of Education IPEDS Data –US Census Bureau –College Board Annual Survey –Other Education Organizations

Chapter 1: The Flow of Students Number of HS Grads Peaked at 3.33 Million for 2008–09 –3.28 Million in 2010–11 Wide Variations by State and Region; Race/Ethnicity; Age Total College Enrollment Will Increase At Least Through 2020

Projected Percentage Change in Public High School Graduates, by State: 2007–08 to 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Figure 8).

Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Region: School Years 2002–03, 2007–08, and 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 14).

Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity: School Years 2002–03, 2007–08, and 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 13).

Actual and Projected Enrollment in All Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions, by Race/Ethnicity: Fall 1999, Fall 2009, and Fall 2020 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 29).

Actual and Projected Enrollment in All Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions, by Age: Fall 1999, Fall 2009, and Fall 2020 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to (2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 21).

Chapter 2. Applications and Selectivity Applications Per Student Continues to Increase Nearly Three-Quarters of Colleges Report Application Increases Average Acceptance Rate Down Slightly

Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications: 1990 to 2010 SOURCES: Pryor, J.H., Hurtado, S., Saenz, V.B., Santos, J.L., and Korn, W.S. (2007). The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends, 1966–2006. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Data from 2007 – 2010 are from annual editions of The American Freshman: National Norms reports also published by the Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA.

Percentage of Colleges Reporting Change from the Previous Year in Number of Applications for Fall Admission: 1996 to 2010 Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

Mean Selectivity and Yield: Fall 2010 SelectivityYield Total By Control Public Private SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. ( ). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Applications and Enrollment By Selectivity National Share of Institutions Average Applications Per Institution National Share of Applications National Share of FT, FY Students Enrolled Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% 19.8%8, %20.3% 50 to 70% 37.15, to 85% 28.43, More than 85% 14.81, SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. ( ). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Chapter 3. Admission Strategies Decrease in Early Decision Apps and Admits – Only 38 Percent Reported Increases in ED Apps – 36 Percent Reported Increases in ED Admits Early Action Activity Holds – 72 Percent Reported Increases in EA Apps – 68 Percent Reported Increases in EA Admits More Colleges Use Wait Lists; Admission Chances Low – 48 Percent Used Wait List, Up From 39 Percent in 2009 – 28 Percent Admitted, Down from 34 Percent in 2009

Early DecisionEarly ActionWait List Total 21.6%30.4%47.7% Control Public Private Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants to 70% to 85% More than 85% Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students to 45% to 60% More than 60% Percentage of Colleges Using Early Decision, Early Action, and Wait Lists: Fall 2010 NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

Mean Mean percentage of all applications received at ED colleges through Early Decision12.4% Mean percentage of Early Decision applications accepted (ED selectivity rate)57.3 Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Decision49.8 Mean percentage of admitted ED students who enrolled (ED yield rate)86.5 Mean overall yield rate at ED colleges34.4 Key Statistics for Early Decision Colleges: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends,

Gap In Acceptance Rate Between ED Admits and All Admits at ED Colleges ED selectivity rate65%67%70%57% Overall selectivity rate at ED colleges 53%54% 55%50% Gap (in percentage points SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2007 to 2010.

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, Mean Mean percentage of all applications received at EA colleges through Early Action43.7% Mean percentage of Early Action applications accepted (EA selectivity rate)66.3 Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Action66.9 Mean percentage of admitted EA students who enrolled (EA yield rate)32.8 Mean overall yield rate at EA colleges30.2 Key Statistics for Early Action Colleges: Fall 2010

Mean Percentage of Students Admitted off the Wait List: Fall 2010 Mean Percent Admitted Total 28.0% Control Public 34.7 Private 26.2 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants to 70% to 85% 35.1 More than 85% 55.3 Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students to 45% to 60% 43.5 More than 60% 18.6 NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

Chapter 4. Factors in the Admission Decision Top Factors Unchanged –Grades in College Prep Courses –Strength of Curriculum –Test Scores –Overall GPA

Factor Considerable importance Moderate importance Limited importanceNo importance Grades in college prep courses83.4%12.3%2.7%1.6% Strength of curriculum Admission test scores (SAT, ACT) Grades in all courses Essay or writing sample Student’s demonstrated interest Class rank Counselor recommendation Teacher recommendation Subject test scores (AP, IB) Interview Extracurricular activities Portfolio SAT II scores State graduation exam scores Work Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

Factors Showing Most Change in “Considerable Importance” Rating: 1993 to 2010 Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

Factors by Institutional Characteristics Public vs. Private –Private: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, extracurricular activities, SAT II scores, the portfolio, demonstrated interest, and work –Public: admission test scores Enrollment Size –Smaller: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, demonstrated interest, state grad. exams –Larger: strength of curriculum, admission test scores Selectivity –More Selective: strength of curriculum, grades in college prep courses, essay, class rank, teacher and counselor recommendations, extracurricular activities, work, portfolios, subject test scores, and SAT II scores

Considerable importance Moderate importance Limited importanceNo importance Race/ethnicity First-generation status High school attended State or county of residence Gender Alumni relations Ability to pay Percentage of Colleges Attributing Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

Chapter 5. College Counseling In High Schools Student-to-Counselor Ratios Time Spent on College Counseling

Students Per Counselor by School Characteristics Students Per Counselor Students Per College Counselor Total Control Public Private Enrollment Fewer than to ,000 to 1, ,500 to 1, ,000 or more FRPL 0 to 25 percent to 50 percent to 75 percent to 100 percent SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2010.

Percentage of Time on College Counseling Private Schools Public Schools SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2010.

Chapter 6. The Admission Office Applications Per Admission Officer Cost to Recruit

Applications Per Admission Officer Applications per admission officer Total 527 Control Public 981 Private 402 Enrollment Fewer than 3, ,000 to 9, ,000 or more 1,219 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants to 70% to 85% 426 More than 85% 297 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

Cost-to-Recruit ApplicantAdmittedEnrolled Total $585.29$805.80$2, Control Public Private , Enrollment Fewer than 3, , , ,000 to 9, , ,000 or more Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants , to 70% , to 85% , More than 85% , Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students , to 45% , to 60% , More than 60% 1, , , NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

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