State of the Cities Denver Business Journal – Mayors’ Economic Forecast Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

State of the Cities Denver Business Journal – Mayors’ Economic Forecast Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute

THE LABOR MARKET

The Situation Denver MSA: 52,000 fewer jobs than 4 years ago Denver Unemployment: Increased by nearly 57,000 since November 2007 Denver Household Incomes: 12 percent drop in median over the past 10 years

US Employment Below 2007 Peak present months to recovery Source: Current Employment Survey

Denver Employment 96 Percent of Pre-Recessionary Levels Great Recession Source: Current Employment Survey

Unemployment is Too Damn High Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Jobs Gap Denver MSA Job change since peak employment (spring 2008) -59,700 Jobs below potential employment 100,000+ Average employment growth rate over last expansion 1.8% Months to get to peak employment at just plain old optimistic growth rate % Months to get to potential employment at wildly optimistic growth rate More than 5 3.0% 1% growth since last year

Looking Forward

GDP Growth Tepid, but Sustained 12 Month Change Source: US Department of Commerce

Mid-size Companies = Job Engines Size of firm (by employees) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Core Inflation Rate Back to 15-Year Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics % Change in Price Level from 12 months earlier

Local Industry Watch Poised to grow –Energy –Health care –Professional & business services –Wholesale trade Continued struggles –Government –Financial activities –Information

What about Construction? ‘Construction of buildings’ has stopped shedding jobs Specialty trade contractors employment up 300 over past year Architecture and engineering adding jobs, too Related financial activities still struggling Privately owned single unit housing starts

The Important Economic Issues Recovery Continues: Though at lackluster pace. National and international performance remain a major factor. Unemployment: Will remain relatively high but below national average. Falling Household Income: Has had large negative effects on the region.

2012 Outlook I don’t always make economic forecasts, But when I do, I am invariably wrong.

New Jobs: The region could add between 13,000 and 18,000 jobs in 2012 (1.2% - 1.5%) Unemployment: Might drop to 7.1% (from 8.1 percent in December) Wage Growth: Will keep pace with inflation, but household incomes will remain stagnant 2012 Outlook

It’s Too Early to Declare Victory Policy makers must remain committed to job creation both locally and nationally!

Thank You Dr. Martin Shields Director, Regional Economics Institute Colorado State University