Idaho State University Colden Baxter, Associate Professor Liaison, Idaho State University Lead, Salmon Basin Team Fall Forecast Annual Meeting November 2 nd, 2010 Boise, Idaho

Overview of Goals & Objectives Team Goal: Establish the Salmon River Basin as a site for long-term research on coupled physical-ecological responses, climate change and associated regime shifts (e.g., hydrology, wildfire, insect outbreaks). Broaden collaboration within and outside the state to build and strengthen partnerships within Idaho and nationally.

Portneuf hydrograph scenarios Time of peak primary production Marcarelli, Van Kirk & Baxter Ecol. Appl. 2010

Portneuf primary production scenarios GPP-future GPP-unregulated GPP-current Marcarelli, Van Kirk & Baxter Ecol. Appl. 2010

Comparing the Salmon and Snake River Systems -Salmon river is only 15% the size of the Snake, but it contributes 62% of the flow at its confluence with the Snake. -The Snake River drainage is 6.67 times larger than the Salmon River but its annual discharge is only 1.6 times that of the Salmon River

Salmon Basin as a Model Ecosystem Flows through largest wilderness area in contiguous U.S. Shifting terrestrial disturbance regimes Snow- to rain-dominated hydrology Increased fire frequency Increased insect outbreaks Unregulated river system 658 km (1 st to 8 th order) 36,520 km 2 basin ~2600m to 430m elevation gradient

Salmon Basin Sensitivity to Shifting Snowlines

Salmon Basin Hypsometry Tennant & Crosby, in prep

Kaushal et al 2010 A Salmon Basin Focus: Indirect Effects of Climate Change

Davis et al. In prep

Carbon / Nutrient Export Light Flux Long-term OM Inputs Δ Atmospheric Temperature Nutrient Inputs Sediment Export Stream Temperature Δ Terrestrial Disturbance Regime Hydrologic Export Hydrologic Predictability Bed Stability Sediment Inputs 1° and 2° Consumer Production Ecosystem Respiration Algal Production Allochthonous OM Biomass Δ Precipitation Regime Microbial Production Net Ecosystem Production Gross Primary Production Spring Snowmelt Long-term LWD Inputs Davis et al. In prep

Research Team Members  Ben Crosby, Assistant Professor (Geosciences, Idaho State University)  Fluvial geomorphology, ecohydrology, landscape evolution  Jennifer Pierce, Associate Professor (Geosciences, Boise State University)  Geomorphology, paleoclimatology, fire history and climate change  Elowyn Yager, Assistant Professor (Ecohydraulics, University Idaho)  Hydraulics, sediment transport and river morphology  Brian Kennedy, Assistant Professor (Fish & Wildlife Res., University of Idaho)  Fish ecology and integration with ecosystem processes  Alex Fremier, Assistant Professor (Fish & Wildlife Res., University of Idaho)  Riparian ecology, hydrology and geomorphology  Jeff Hicke, Assistant Professor (Geography, University of Idaho)  Global change science and effects of fire and insect outbreaks  Kitty Lohse, Assistant Professor (Biology & Geology, Idaho State University)  Soil science, watershed ecosystems, biogeochemistry  Postdocs: John Davis Stream-riparian ecosystem responses to climate change; Chunling Tang Hydrologic modeling and forecasting climate change effects; Mark Shapley Paleo-limnology studies  Senior collaborators: Bruce Finney (Biology & Geology, ISU) Paleoclimatology, ecology; Glenn Thackray (Geology, ISU) Paleoclimatology, geomorphology; G. Wayne Minshall (Biology, ISU) Stream ecology

Team Objectives ► Acquire, organize and analyze legacy datasets to establish the Salmon River Basin as a natural laboratory ► Establish field sites to improve understanding of how ecosystem structure and function shift in response to future climate change. ► Integrate legacy and paleo-climate datasets of ecological change with contemporary measurements. ► Establish and initiate an operational plan for sharing data and metadata with other researchers, stakeholders, agencies and the general public. ► Integrate ecological and hydro-climatology research to improve basin-scale hydrologic and ecological forecasting

Overview of Activities ► Acquire, organize and analyze legacy datasets to establish the Salmon River Basin as a natural laboratory ► legacy database established for Salmon Basin ► Minshall data sets organized and being utilized ► e.g., Kennedy use of Idaho salmon “otolith archive” to construct relationships between fish ecology and climate

Overview of Activities ► Acquire, organize and analyze legacy datasets to establish the Salmon River Basin as a natural laboratory ► Baxter and crew working with mentor G.W. Minshall to organize and analyze legacy datasets ► e.g., 20 year analysis of flow-stream algae relationships– forecasting stream algae under CC scenarios Davis, Baxter & Minshall, in prep

Overview of Activities ► Establish field sites to improve understanding of how ecosystem structure and function shift in response to future climate change ► reoccupying long-term, legacy study sites (e.g., Minshall’s “River Continuum” sites, long-term monitoring sites) ► established range of new sites throughout the Salmon Basin needed to address other objectives ► many new sites overlapping among EPSCoR, non-EPSCoR and agency investigators (e.g., 16 sites along gradient from snow- to-rain)

Space for Time Design

Overview of Activities ► Establish field sites to improve understanding of how ecosystem structure and function shift in response to future climate change ► reoccupying long-term, legacy study sites (e.g., Minshall’s “River Continuum” sites, long-term monitoring sites) ► Comparing in depth ecosystem measures from to (present years encompassing dramatic swings in winter snow pack and ice cover)

Overview of Activities ► Establish field sites to improve understanding of how ecosystem structure and function shift in response to future climate change ► e.g., using insects as integrators – analysis of guts from archived insects and comparison to present

Overview of Activities ► Integrate legacy and paleo-climate datasets of ecological change with contemporary measurements ► linking contemporary processes (hydrologic, geomorphic and ecological) in the context of improved understanding of climate and process variability at paleo time scales ► these processes are all focus of contemporary studies as well ► ultimate goal to compare paleo and contemporary climate- driven variability in these processes

Overview of Activities ► Integrate legacy and paleo-climate datasets of ecological change with contemporary measurements ► Finney, Thackray and Shapley (postdoc) coring lake sediments to: ► generate records of Holocene hydroclimate for Salmon Basin ► reconstruct aquatic ecosystem responses to climate and to disturbance regimes (e.g., Finney et al. J Mar. Syst. 2010) years BP Shapley & Finney, in prep

Overview of Activities ► Integrate legacy and paleo-climate datasets of ecological change with contemporary measurements

Overview of Activities ► Integrate legacy and paleo-climate datasets of ecological change with contemporary measurements ► Pierce and students working on fire and flow history reconstruction for the Salmon basin to compare to contemporary patterns (Kunkel & Pierce 2010 Climatic Change, Nelson & Pierce 2010 The Holocene ► Investigating relationships between paleoclimate, paleo wildfire and sediment/debris flow processes that affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem s

Overview of Activities ► Establish and initiate an operational plan for sharing data and metadata with other researchers, stakeholders, agencies and the general public ► “legacy” database and metadata being fit to requirements of national Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program database ► data-basing effort to be linked to data networking regionally and internationally ► first annual “Salmon Basin Summit” held—set the stage for long-term, cooperative agreements that will facilitate connections between academic research and agency monitoring needs ► one summit goal was to coordinate data sharing among agency and academic institutions (e.g., recent USFS & ISU example)

Connecting to Efforts Across the West ► Baxter linking climate change investigations of food webs and ecosystem processes throughout Columbia Basin, and to Colorado Basin (e.g., Marcarelli et al. Ecol. Appl. paper, conceptual paper in revision at Ecology, new major proposal to USGS) ► Crosby linking investigations of hydrologic & landscape response to GCC in Salmon to those funded by NSF-OPP and LTER in Alaska ► Hicke-investigating effects of forest disturbance to climate models in Salmon (use of new LiDAR dta) and across western U.S. by working with NCAR modeling group via new NOAA grant (see also Pfeifer, Hicke, & Meddens in Global Change Biology ) ► Kennedy and others at UI linking field stations in Idaho and Montana in their climate science and education efforts (e.g., Taylor Wilderness Field Station, McCall Outdoor Science School & Flathead Lake Biological Station—e.g., NSF FSML grant ► Germino linking investigations in Snake to entire Great Basin (e.g., through coordination of Great Basin Research and Management Partnership); see also Germino recent pubs in Ecology, Ecol. Appl., J. Veg. Science, Plant Ecology

Overview of Activities ► Integrate ecological and hydro-climatology research to improve basin-scale hydrologic and ecological forecasting. ► future flow regime scenarios are being generated for the sites at which hydro-geo-eco field studies are being conducted ► Tang, Crosby, Wheaton, Sridhar using down-scaled regional climate models to drive hydrologic models (VIC) in Salmon ► (e.g., future flows at Whitebird…) Tang & Crosby, in review

Overview of Activities ► Integrate ecological and hydro-climatology research to improve basin-scale hydrologic and ecological forecasting. ► modeling to be linked to fire and sediment delivery process studies being conducted at sites by Drs. Yager and Pierce ► coupling hydrologic forecasts with field studies that link hydrologic regime to geomorphic and ecological structure and function (fluvial geo-Crosby, stream ecology-Baxter, salmon ecology-Kennedy, riparian ecology-Fremier) Use of “radio rocks” to relate climate to hydrology to streambed mobility…

Overview of Activities ► Integrate ecological and hydro-climatology research to improve basin-scale hydrologic and ecological forecasting. ► generating mechanistic basis (physical habitat and energy flow processes) for predicting ecological consequences of CC ?

Overview of Activities ► Integrate ecological and hydro-climatology research to improve basin-scale hydrologic and ecologic forecasting. ► project future climate scenarios of habitat and ecological conditions more sophisticated than those presently in use (present scenarios driven principally by expected increases in summer water temperature)

Future Plans ► Integrate ecological and hydro-climatology research to improve basin-scale hydrologic and ecological forecasting. ► Aims to coordinate improvement of climate and hydrologic data collection with ecological monitoring in Salmon Basin ► Submit proposals to support more integrative studies in Salmon Basin, linking physical and ecological processes ► Fremier and Yager NSF seed grant ► Hicke-linking with climate modelers to incorporate forest disturbance effects into to models ► Baxter & Crosby-newly funded study of climate, river ice & food webs

Future Plans Long Term Sustainability ► Building The Salmon Basin Consortium… ► Submit proposals to support long-term monitoring/research ► USFS cooperative agreements ► NOAA and IDFG cooperative efforts ► Tribal collaborations ► NSF LTREB planned proposal ► Follow through on NSF LTER database sharing effort ► Hold “Salmon Basin Summit II” ► Engaging the public and diversifying our science community… ► Increase linkage between outreach and diversity efforts to research efforts ► Continue collaborative efforts with M.O.S.S. ► Ramp up native student involvement and tribal cooperative ► Outreach to public in Salmon Basin itself

Summary ► Establishing and advancing to fill a research “niche” focused on coupled biophysical responses to climate change –especially indirect effects mediated by shifting terrestrial (fire, beetle kill) and aquatic (floods, ice) disturbance regimes ► Long-term goal involves building consortium, gaining public and government agency support, and diversifying scientific community to develop an internationally recognized, long-term research site centered on the Salmon Basin