Dong Chen and Xiaoming Wang Potential Challenges for the Built Environment in Northern Australia

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Adaptation Engineering The Global Warming We Are Facing Melbourne Bushfire 7 Th February 2009 On 7 th February 2009, reaches 46.4 o C, the hottest ever recorded in Melbourne. The deadliest bushfire in Australian history, killed 173 peoples, destroyed and damaged 3000 houses.

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 The Global Warming We Are Facing Brisbane Floods 2011 Adaptation Engineering The floods inundated about 30,000 homes and businesses in Australia’s third largest city. The cost to the nation may total as much as AUS$13 billion.

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 The Global Warming We Are Facing Climate Commission Report May 2011 Adaptation Engineering This year's Queensland and Victorian flooding “raised the question of a possible link between the floods and human-induced climate change'' Based on observations and various events “ the impacts of climate change are already being felt in Australia and elsewhere…” ''Minimising these risks requires rapid, deep and ongoing reductions to global greenhouse gas emissions. We must begin now if we are to decarbonise our economy and move to clean energy sources by 2050.''

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Australian Residential Sector – the Challenge Source: National Inventory by Economic Sector 2006, Department of Climate Change, Canberra

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Australian Residential Sector – the Challenge Australia’s 5% and 80% GHG emission reduction targets in 2020 and 2050 respectively from the 2000 level requires dramatic GHG emissions reduction in all sectors

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Climate Change and Buildings CO 2 Temperature Humidity Solar Radiation Wind

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Climate Change Impact Simulation TMY Weather Data Building Physical Data with Rules Assumed Occupants Behaviours AccuRate Engine Total Heating and Cooling Loads per m 2 (MJ/ m 2 ) Star band Star Rating Future TMY Weather Data

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Projection of Climate Change T RH

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Projected Ambient Temperature for Darwin Hours above 35 o C Present ~ 5h 1 o C~ 50h 2 o C~ 200h 3 o C~ 500h

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 An Example House for Simulation Studies Floor area160 m 2 Net air-conditioned floor area140 m 2 Four bedrooms Brick veneer house

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 An Example House for Simulation Studies Floor area160 m 2 Net air-conditioned floor area140 m 2 Four bedrooms Brick veneer house

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Climate Zones in Australia

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Effect of Global Warming on House Heating and Cooling Carbon Emission In comparison with other major cities, cooling energy consumption is projected to significantly increase in Darwin and Alice Springs.

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Impact on Cooling Demand in Darwin Demand Increase at 2 o C Global warming 2 star440 MJ/m 2 /yr65% 5 star 295 MJ/m 2 /yr69% 7 star185 MJ/m 2 /yr63% Energy efficient houses are predicted to out-perform inefficient houses for energy saving and GHG emissions reduction

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Impact on Indoor Air Temperature Air temperature above 35 o C Global warming 0 o C 1 star30 hours 2 stars19 hours 5 stars 0 hour 7 stars0 hour

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Impact on Indoor Air Temperature Air temperature above 35 o C Global warming 2 o C 1 star400 hours 2 stars345 hours 5 stars 10 hours 7 stars0 hour

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Impact on Indoor Heat Stress Index Discomfort Index >28 Global warming 2 o C 1 star4345 hours 2 stars4280 hours 5 stars 4339 hours 7 stars4167 hours Energy efficient houses are predicted to out-perform inefficient houses for indoor thermal comfort and heat stress. However, its protection to global warming is limited.

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Heavy Weight or Light Weight Double brick with slab-on-ground ? Elevated lightweight ?

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Heavy vs light – Cooling Demand Light, medium, heavy weight houses may have similar performance in terms of cooling energy requirement with 2 to 3 o C global warming.

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Heavy vs light – Indoor Temperature Air temperature above 35 o C Global warming 0 o C 1 star BV30 hours 1 star L32 hours 1 star H 0 hour 7 star BV0 hour 7 star L2 hour 7 star H0 hour

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Heavy vs light – Indoor Temperature Air temperature above 35 o C Global warming 2 o C 1 star BV400 hours 1 star L424 hours 1 star H 127 hour 7 star BV0 hour 7 star L128 hour 7 star H0 hour Heavy weight houses may out-perform light weight houses in reducing extreme indoor air temperature

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 AUS-ZEH Development of High Energy Performance Residential Buildings

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Potential energy demand & GHG emissions reduction of a typical house in Melbourne – now! House scenario comparisons % Energy Demand Reduction % CO 2 Emission Reduction Average to Best77%46%

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Reduction potential in Five Australian cities % Energy consumption reduction % CO 2 emissions reduction Location Average - Best Melbourne7746 Sydney6949 Canberra8154 Brisbane6242 Townsville6147 ~48% average 61-81%

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Ren ZG, Wang X, and Chen D, (2011). Working in progress. Impact Building Energy Efficiency Pathways of Climate Adaptation for Buildings ① ② Darwin Electrical Appliance Efficiency Adaptation Pathway

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Ren ZG, Wang X, and Chen D, (2011). Working in progress. Darwin Brisbane Sydney Cost-Effectiveness of Adaptations for Buildings – A 6 o C Global Warming Scenario Cost-effectiveness of each adaptation options depends on locations. Adaptation options more expansive in Sydney and Brisbane than in Darwin ($/kWh). Increase in energy consumption due to climate change Reduction in energy consumption due to adaptation Cost per kWh reduction Average cost per kWh reduction

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Minimising global warming risks requires rapid, deep and ongoing reductions to global greenhouse gas emissions. Darwin and Alice Springs is projected to increase cooling energy significantly under global warming; Energy efficient houses out-perform in energy saving and GHG emissions reduction; Energy efficient houses out-perform in indoor thermal comfort and heat stress. However, its protection to global warming is limited Conclusions

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Light, medium, heavy weight houses may have similar performance in cooling energy requirement Heavy weight houses may out-perform light weight houses in reducing extreme indoor air temperature Cost-effectiveness of adaptation options depends on locations. Adaptation options more expansive in Sydney and Brisbane than in Darwin in $/kWh Conclusions (continued)

Charles Darwin University Symposium 12 – 15 Oct, 2011 Contact Us Phone: or Web: Thank you Contact: Dr Dong Chen CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Po Box 56, Highett, Vic 3190 P: E: Web: