The search for opportunities and the structuring of business entities to exploit those opportunities with current or near term organizational capabilities. Involves:  creation and analysis of markets and market segments  Maintenance of relationships with partners: customers, channel members, or suppliers of complementary products and services.

Usefulness of Forecast determined by:  Time  Effort  Money Invested

Marketing Forecast attempts to account for:  Technological change  Time horizons  Barriers to entry/exit  Elasticity of demand  Forecast expenditures

 Strategic forecasts  Marketing planning forecasts  Marketing Operation forecasts (MOFs)  Sales forecasts

 “Top down” forecast  Usually 3-5 years  More qualitative than quantitative  Attempt to reconcile reality with desired strategic direction

 Usually associated with a product or market  Significant inputs from market research and competitive analysis  Attempt to predict what customers and competitors will do  Usually 1- 3 year periods

 Usually the responsibility of the field marketing organization  Tactical in nature  Source of significant market information, often sourced through customer relationships  An element in sales forecasts  Serves many parts of the organization  Usually 1 – 3 year periods, continuously updated

 Shorter range than MOF  Input to logistical functions, resource planning, and so on  Usually derived from analysis of historical data  assumption that future activities will follow current patterns

Often involve statistical manipulation of historical data  Rolling Averages  Econometric Models  Delphi Approach

Products NewExisting New Existing Markets New Business Core Translation Core Churn Business Development Tracking Grid Exhibit 11-2

 Provides the “who, what, where, when and how much information” about current and future business › Core Business › Core Churn › Real New Business › Translation Business

The TALC and PLC Superimposed TALC - Sales from New Adopters/ period PLC – Total Sales Time Exhibit 11-4

Ever Changing as New Customer Groups Emerge at Different Stages:  Development Stage  Introduction Stage  Growth Stage  Maturity Stage  Decline Stage

Activity Development Stage Intro Stage Chasm and Early Growth Tornado – Later Growth Maturity Stage Decline Stage Research & analysis ▲▲▲▲▲▲ Product development ▲▲▲▲▲ New business development ▲▲▲ Translation business dev. ▲▲▲ Core churn business dev. ▲▲▲ Selling & sales support ▲▲▲ Channel development & management ▲▲▲▲ Market communication ▲▲▲ Customer service ▲ Exhibit 11-6

Time Revenue Business Development Bands over The Product Life Cycle Range of Initial Business Development for Each Offering Range of Major Translation Effort Range of Major Sales-Driven Effort Exhibit 11-7