Transition an introduction

A Brief History of Transition Part 1

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4 Founder and Honorary Chairman of ASPO, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

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6 6 “a roadmap to sustainability, to localisation, to abundance.”

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9 Published in March 2008

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11 Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE Climate engineering Carbon capture and storage International emissions trading Climate adaptation Nuclear power P O + C C = Systems Re-think Relocalization Local Resilience Design for Energy Descent PEAK OIL Burn everything!  relaxed drilling regulations  biofuels  tar sands and non-conventional oils Resource nationalism Resource Wars

12 Start of recession

13 PEAK OIL GLOBAL WARMING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY THE LONG EMERGENCY

14 Energy descent Economic instability Environmental destruction Crisis of the human spirit

Motivating Challenges Part 2

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17 Peak Oil in the US Time -> 1970

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19 energy-crisis-what-energy-crisis/

20  Alternative energy is low quality (dispersed)  Alternative energy has low EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested)  Non-liquid fuels are inefficient for transportation  Alt. energy lacks chemical value of oil

21  Dilute sunlight must be concentrated to do much work  Electricity has a very high concentration of energy

22 Our entire way of life depends on oil and cheap energy

23  No human society had anything near the amount of energy before the discovery of fossil fuels.  A gallon of gasoline represents 500 hours of human labor.  A tank of gas contains 8,000 human hours (three years*) of work!  We take it for granted. * If you worked for 8 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7 days a week that equates to about 3 years’ work.

24 Energy Return on Energy Invested

25  We’re not “running out” of energy.  We are out of cheap energy.  Most of the remaining energy will be too expensive to procure.

26  Rob Hopkins on Energy Descent Rob Hopkins on Energy Descent

27 “Peak Everything” Resource Depletion  Energy (oil, coal, natural gas)  Water  Phosphorus  Minerals  Food  Topsoil

28  Chris Martenson: Crash Course Chris Martenson: Crash Course

29  The “output” side  Ocean acidification  Climate weirdness  Loss of rainforest  Toxic wastes  Nuclear waste  Loss of 150 species per day

30 US Gross Federal Debt Apr 15, 2011: 14.3 trillion

31 US Adjusted Monetary Base (BASE)

32  Money is created when banks lend it.  By definition, there is always more debt on the books than there is money to repay it.  This system assumes increased production year over year…  which assumes increased resource extraction, year over year…  which, on a finite planet, cannot be sustained.

33  Since 1970, US economy is based less and less on production of physical goods & services; more on more on debt and financial instruments.  “When you try to create infinite growth on a finite planet, only two things can change: Either the planet gets bigger, which seems unlikely, or the economy stops growing.” - Paul Gilding, former head of Greenpeace International

34  Stress  Disconnection from nature  Loneliness  Overwork  Crime  Rage  Addictions  Dependence on external systems (corporations, institutions, government agencies) – “outsourcing” all aspects of life

The Transition Response Part 3

36 Industrial Ascent (Modernism) Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution Pollution Climax Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Mad Max Great Grand Children Agriculture yrs BP IndustrialRevolution Baby Boom Pre-industrial sustainable culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent Transition Towns Where are we going?

37 How can we plan for an uncertain future?  It’s clear we need to change direction.  But how can we prepare when we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen?

38 Resilience “The ability of a system, from individual people to whole economies, to hold together and maintain their ability to function in the face of change and shocks from the outside.”

39 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

40 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

41 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

42 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

43 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

44 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

45 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

46 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

47 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

48 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

49 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

50 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

51 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

52 Not Adding Resilience:  Centralized recycling  Ornamental trees  Organic food, trucked in  Imported “green building” materials  Ethical investment  Buying choral CDs  Consumerism Adding Resilience:  Local composting  Productive trees  Local food production  Local building materials  Local currencies  Singing in the choir  Reciprocity

53 Relocalization “The process by which a region, county, city or even neighborhood frees itself from an overdependence on the global economy and invests in its own resources to produce a significant portion of the goods, services, food and energy it consumes from its local endowment of financial, natural and human capital.”

54 How Do You Engage the Community?

55 Suggest a Positive Vision "You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete." Buckminster Fuller

56  Energy Descent / Abundance Ascent Energy Descent / Abundance Ascent

57  “The A to C of Transition”  Use the ones that seem useful  Add new ones you come up with  Disregard others that don’t work for you

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60  "What Does Sustainability Mean to You?"  "Movie Night: End of Suburbia"  "Creating a Pedestrian & Bike-friendly Community"  "Movie Night: The Power of Community How Cuba Survived Peak Oil"  "How do we connect our community?"  "Taking Action to Launch Your Ideas"  "Permaculture and Transition Towns"  "Community Forum with City Light"  "Solar Cookout"  "My Eco-Neighborhood - an evening talk with Robyn Francis"  "Creating Local Economy"  "Climate Change"  "Energy / Ingenuity"  "Voluntary Simplicity"  "After the Oil Rush: Planning our community in the post-petroleum age"  "Local Assets Treasure Hunt"  "Water and Rain Harvesting"  "Rethinking Jobs - Transitioning to a Green Economy"  "Show 'N' Tell: Projects for Sustainable Living"  "Second Annual Solar Cookout!"  "PLANET: HOME a sustainable living festival"  "Creating a local resilient economy in NE Seattle"  "Personal Resilience - What's community got to do with it?"  "Gross National Happiness"  "Energy! What's Next?"  "Oil For Dinner. How Peak Oil and politics affect what we eat"  "Waste Should Not Be Wasted"  "City Food Takes Root"  "Sustainable community management of shared resources"

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62 Collaborate where possible Co-operation, not competition.

63 Transition Whatcom Great Unleashing

64  Action oriented groups  Networking  Toward the EDAP  Not everyone has the same interests, skills or passions  A resilient community requires diversity

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66 Local Currencies

67  Rob Hopkins: Local Currencies Rob Hopkins: Local Currencies

68 6. Use Open Space  Open Space Technology  World Cafes

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70  Solar Potluck Solar Potluck

71  "Hands On" Reskilling Fair - Sustainable NE Seattle "Hands On" Reskilling Fair - Sustainable NE Seattle

72  Rob Hopkins: Interacting with Government Rob Hopkins: Interacting with Government

Honor the elders 11. Let it go where it wants to go… 12. Create an Energy Descent Plan

74  Transition Laguna: Heart and Soul Group Transition Laguna: Heart and Soul Group

75  What inner beliefs underlie our outer world?  Why have we made a self destructive world?  Why don’t we wake up and do something about it?  How can the Transition movement support inner transition?

76  The “Energy Descent Action Plan” uniquely distinguishes the Transition process from other "greening" efforts.  We prefer: “Energy Downscaling Action Plan”  Topic areas align with Working Groups The EDAP – a planned way down

77  Transition Portland: David Johnson Transition Portland: David Johnson

78 Cheerful disclaimer  We truly don't know if this will work.  Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale.  What we are convinced of is this: ◦ If we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late ◦ If we act as individuals, it'll be too little ◦ But if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time.

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