Farmland Values & Cash Rent Craig Dobbins

2011 Purdue Land Value Survey Cash Rent Results

Average Quality Cash Rent,

Cash Rent Comparison &

Cash rent per bu. – Average soil

Preliminary 2011 Purdue Land Value Survey – Land Value Results

Average Quality Land Value,

Comparison of Change in Farmland Value 2002 – 2006 &

Farmland Value per Bu. of Corn Average Land

Value/Rent multiple – Average land

2012 Projections - Prepared August 10, 2011 ItemRotation CornRotation Soybeans Per acrePer bu.Per acrePer bu. Yield16149 Price$5.90 $12.40 Direct payment$26.00$0.16$14.00$0.29 Gross Revenue$976$6.06$622$12.70 Production cost$462$2.87$246$5.02 Contribution margin$514$3.19$376$7.67 Machinery overhead$80$0.50$80$1.63 Labor$39$0.24$39$0.80 Return to land & risk$395$2.45$257$ Cash rent – average land $187$1.16$187$3.82 Profit $208$1.29$70$1.42

New Price Plateau Corn ($/bu.)Soybeans ($/bu.) $6.70$17.56 $4.60$10.58 $3.00$7.51 Source: Dr. Scott Irwin

New Price Plateau Item Rotation CornRotation Rotation Soybeans Per acre Yield16149 Price$4.60$10.58 Direct payments$26.00$14.00 Gross Revenue$767$532 Production cost$468$246 Contribution margin$299$286 Machinery & labor overhead, & 2011 rent $306 Loss $7.00$13.50$20.00 No direct payments $33.50

Farmland Value ScenarioReturn to landValue/income multiple Farmland value Continue estimated 2012 $34030$10,200 New price plateau$17430$5,220

Annual Percent Change in Average Land

Continue Higher Strong demand for corn from the ethanol industry because of biofuel mandates Strong soybean export demand 2011 U.S. corn and soybean crop that is average or below average Moderate increases in input costs for corn and soybeans, keeping crop production margins well above historic average Low long-term interest rates Little change in the amount of land available for sale

Steady or Decline Sharp decline in corn and/or soybean export demand Sudden change in the U.S. policy away from providing biofuel subsidies and mandating usage Sharp rise in interest rates because of a downgrade in the credit rating of U.S. government debt obligations or increased inflation fears Exceptionally large 2011 corn and soybean crop Sharp rise in crop input prices reducing crop production margins Further slowing of world growth because of sovereign debt problems, including the U.S. Strong supply response resulting from new capital investments in agricultural production U.S. recession Some combination of the above or some unknown development