Oil Platform Risk Assessment in the Gulf of Mexico UNC-Chapel Hill GEOG 491 November 29, 2010

Overview Objective: Perform a risk assessment analysis for active oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico that incorporates environmental, economic, and human factors. Environmental factors: Hurricanes, Sea Floor Sediment Type, Species Economic factors: State Oil Dependency, Industry Impact, Platform Value Human factors: Safety, Maintenance, Technology

Analysis Schematic Diagram Environmental Risk Environmental Impact Oil Platform Disaster Economic Risks Economic Impact Human Impact Human Risk http://www.prisonplanet.com/images/june2010/090610top.jpg

Case Study: Deepwater Horizon (BP) Maps of Oil Spill Environmental/Economic Data Major causes (human error, env., etc.) Major impacts (economic, environmental, etc) Motivation for our study (assessing potential for similar disasters on active platforms)

Environmental Risk Factors Sediment Type Hurricanes Dolphins Pink Shrimp Red Drum Stone Crab

Hurricanes *Select by Attributes

*Line Density

S P E C I

Sediment Type *Reclassify 1 (Low) 2 3 4 (High) *Features to Raster Hard banks Sand Silt Clay Gravelly Sand Sand Silt Clay Sandy Clay Silty Clay Sandy Silt Silty Sand Clayey Silt *Features to Raster

*Raster Calculator

Composite = 0. 5. [hurricane_risk] + 0. 4. [sediment_risk] + 0. 1 *Composite = 0.5*[hurricane_risk] + 0.4*[sediment_risk] + 0.1*[species_risk]

Economic Risk Factors

Who are the big players? OIL PROD. RANK COMPANY NAME CASING HEAD GAS TOTAL GAS CONDENSATE CRUDE OIL TOTAL OIL 1 BP Exploration & Production Inc. 166,070,901 6,146,156 172,217,057 4,104,078 172,465,896 176,569,974 2 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. 62,385,975 143,302,884 205,688,859 3,065,560 77,786,322 80,851,882 3 Shell Offshore Inc. 97,665,600 77,271,947 174,937,547 2,797,104 72,762,999 75,560,103 4 BHP Billiton Petroleum (GOM) Inc. 16,966,611 - 40,259,374 5 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation 23,502,464 204,699,776 228,202,240 4,175,840 22,365,482 26,541,322 6 Apache Corporation 25,153,445 125,597,954 150,751,399 3,978,782 14,296,681 18,275,463 7 Murphy Exploration & Production Company - USA 18,268,848 17,196,384 8 Hess Corporation 2,436,815 56,853,854 59,290,669 13,474,485 1,268,819 14,743,304 9 Eni Petroleum Co. Inc. 10,240,386 102,826,086 113,066,472 2,232,866 11,062,050 13,294,916 10 Exxon Mobil Corporation 9,947,143 76,407,624 86,354,767 665,116 7,832,333 8,497,449 11-124 Bottom 114 Companies 120,378,916 983,473,946 1,103,852,862 26,602,868 73,241,501 99,844,369

Other Possible Studies Environmental Economic Human Shoreline Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) – Assesses shoreline vulnerability to oil spills on a scale of 1-10. At-risk species (more variety and oil-specific vulnerability calculation) Specific habitat impact analysis (Coral, nesting, spawning locations)