Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Effects of low oil prices for 19 th Annual Energy Risk Summit May.

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U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Effects of low oil prices for 19 th Annual Energy Risk Summit May 12, 2015 | Houston, TX by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator

Historical oil prices (and EIA forecast through 2016) Effects of low oil prices May 12, crude oil price price per barrel (real 2010 dollars) Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters Prices shown are quarterly averages: dashed lines are EIA projections

Brent crude oil prices were relatively stable through the first half of 2014; increased oil supply and lower global economic growth expectations lowered prices from July 2014 to January 2015 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Bloomberg 3

Key takeaways Oil prices: EIA’s forecast for Brent averages $61/b in 2015 and $70/b in The market-implied 95% confidence band for Brent (estimated from WTI futures and options prices) is extremely wide – with a range from $40/b to $110/b at the end of Demand: Non-OECD Asia remains a key driver of global forecast liquids consumption growth of roughly 1.2 million b/d in 2015 and 1.3 million b/d in 2016; lower demand growth is a major a downside risk to the price forecast U.S. oil production: Lower-48 oil production falls to its 4Q2014 level in 3Q2015, and then remains below that level for the following 3 quarters, before returning to that level in 3Q2016 as production growth resumes under EIA’s price scenario; near-term production in the federal offshore (growing) and Alaska (declining) are not responsive to recent price changes The economy and consumers: EIA’s energy forecast reflects a U.S. economic growth outlook for that is somewhat stronger than experience Energy expenditures as a share of GDP are forecast at 6.3% in 2015, their lowest level since 2002, reflecting both lower oil prices and energy efficiency Average U.S. household projected gasoline spending is $675 less in 2015 than in 2014, and about $530 less in 2016 than in 2014 Effects of low oil prices May 12,

Oil prices rise from mid-2015 through mid-2016 in EIA’s forecast – however, the market-implied confidence band is very wide 5 WTI price dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

U.S. crude oil production growth by area cumulative growth compared with 4Q14 (million barrels per day) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 Total U.S. crude production is forecast to decline between 2Q15 and 1Q16; output growth then resumes growth in 2016, reflecting EIA’s price forecast 6

EIA’s latest DPR forecasts June oil production below the May level in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Niobrara regions 7 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

North American oil production growth slows with lower oil prices but remains the main driver of global production growth 8 world crude oil and liquid fuels production growth million barrels per day Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

EIA forecasts global liquids consumption growth at 1.2 million bbl/d in 2015 and 1.3 million bbl/d in 2016 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015 world liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day annual change million barrels per day 9 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

Various events could lead to changes in global supply or demand that could push future crude oil prices higher or lower than the forecast Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 Increase Prices Decrease Prices Event Oil demand growth surprises to the upside (economy- or price-driven) Key OPEC producers cut output more than expected Iraq production is significantly disrupted (ISIL? other discord?) Social unrest in oil-dependent countries leads to supply disruptions Non-OPEC production slows more than expected World economic growth is lower than projected (e.g., China) Saudi Arabia keeps production at million bbl/d in 2016 Reduction in unplanned production outages Iranian sanctions are lifted 10

Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 Source: EIA, International Monetary Fund (IMF), individual country investment authorities Gov’t deficits, high reliance on oil revenue, and asset coverage of gov’t spending are indicators of geopolitical stress exposure more risk less risk more risk less risk 11

Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 U.S. gasoline demand is forecast to increase 1.4% percent in 2015 reflecting a combination of factors 12 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015

household energy expenditures dollars Sources: 2013 expenditures and income from BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey. The average household in the BLS survey (called a consuming unit) averages 2.5 people and 1.3 income earners. Expenditures for based on average prices from EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, May Average household energy expenditures fall by 15% in 2015, then increase somewhat in 2016 (based on EIA price forecast) $4,568 $4,534 $3,832 $4,009 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

Longer-term perspective Effects of low oil prices May 12,

EIA’s long-term price scenarios cover a wide range of potential prices 15 Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 History Projections 2013 High Oil Price Reference High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

Lower oil prices, if sustained, have a significant impact on projected U.S. production Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Alaska Tight oil Other lower 48 states onshore Lower 48 states offshore 2013 ProjectionsHistoryProjectionsHistory 2013 Alaska Tight oil Other lower 48 states onshore Lower 48 states offshore Reference caseLow price case million barrels per day 16

Can OPEC cohere? – comparison of change in world liquid fuel balances for two 12-year historical periods with EIA projections for from AEO2015 (million barrels per day) Effects of low oil prices May 12, Actual Projected AEO 2014 Reference & HOGR Cases 1973–852000–122013–25 World Liquids Demand to +13 OECD Non-OECD World Liquids Supply to +12 Non-OPEC Supply to +15 OPEC Production to +2 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2015

For more information 18 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | Annual Energy Outlook | Short-Term Energy Outlook | International Energy Outlook | Today In Energy | Monthly Energy Review | State Energy Portal | Drilling Productivity Report | Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average $2.93/million Btu in 2015 and $3.32/million Btu in Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015 Henry Hub spot price dollars per million Btu Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

Natural gas production is expected to increase by 4.5 bcf/day in 2015 and by 1.3 bcf/day in 2016 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015 U.S. natural gas production and imports billion cubic feet per day annual change billion cubic feet per day 20

natural gas consumption billion cubic feet per day annual change billion cubic feet per day Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015 Industrial and power sectors drive natural gas consumption growth in the forecast Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May

EIA’s latest DPR forecasts June natural gas production below the May level in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Niobrara regions 22 Effects of low oil prices May 12, 2015

23 Note: Mbbl/sd = thousand barrels per stream day; MM = millions; e = Estimated costs, when stated costs not available from news reports or company filings. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, compiled from industry sources as of January New condensate splitter projects in the United States Project Capacity (Mbbl/sd) State Est. Cost 2 ($MM) CompletionStatus Kinder Morgan - Galena Park50Texas under construction Kinder Morgan - Galena Park50Texas under construction Marathon - Canton25Ohio under construction Kinder Morgan - Galena Park50Texas200e2017proposed Buckeye/Trafigura – Corpus Christi 50Texas proposed Magellan – Corpus Christi50Texas250e2017proposed Magellan – Corpus Christi50Texas200e2018proposed Phillips 66 – Sweeny75Texas proposed Targa - Houston Ship Channel35Texas proposed Marathon - Catlettsburg35Kentucky front-end engineering design CCI – Corpus Christi100Texas front-end engineering design