CHAPTER 14 Campaigns and Elections

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Learning Objectives Describe the historical development of the presidential selection process Describe the activities of presidential candidates as they compete for the “invisible primary” Distinguish between primaries and caucuses, and assess how the timing of those contests plays a role in the outcome of the nomination process Assess the role of national party conventions Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Learning Objectives Compare and contrast incumbent races and open elections Describe the strategies that candidates use to win elections Critique the electoral college system Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Learning Objectives Compare and contrast the factors that explain vote choices Assess the impact of money on presidential campaigns, and describe the laws governing campaign finance Define the power of incumbency, turnout levels, and presidential coattails in congressional elections Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

American Presidential Elections in Historical Perspective Constitution does not include information on selecting a president Founders envisioned presidential selection by men at a lofty level above partisan politics Political parties supply framework for elections Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

American Presidential Elections in Historical Perspective The Nomination Phase Political parties select their “party ticket” Constitution did not account for process of nomination Process has evolved throughout the years Caption to come (Scott Olson/Getty Images) Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

American Presidential Elections in Historical Perspective Five Stages of contemporary presidential selection Prenomination campaign Nomination campaign National conventions General election campaign Electoral college decision Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The Prenomination Campaign Potential candidates “test the waters” Begins the “weeding out” process Invisible primary Competition for front-runner status Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The Nomination Campaign Primaries and Caucuses Presidential primary Open primary Closed primary Caucus GOP presidential candidate and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with his wife, Callista, declaring victory in the South Carolina primary in January 2012. T.J. Kirkpatrick/Getty Images Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The Nomination Campaign Importance of Iowa and New Hampshire Contests Small states with few delegates Traditionally are the first two contests Winner receives greater media attention Loser written off as “unelectable” Causes frontloading Super Tuesday Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The Nomination Campaign Nominating Conventions Historically Discussed the party platform Selected the candidate to represent the party Today Week-long forum for parties and nominees Introduce nominee to voters Formally kick off the campaign Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The General Election Campaign Incumbent Race versus Open Election Incumbent: campaign focuses on past performance Open: less focused on the past Choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate Attempt to balance ideological views and geographic coverage Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The General Election Campaign Gathering a Winning Coalition of States Strong Republican states - red Strong Democratic states - blue Battleground (“swing”) states - gold Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The General Election Campaign Presidential Debates Kennedy/Nixon first to generate interest Large amount of attention paid to the debates Impact on the outcome is unclear Advertising TV ads are important Heighten name recognition Negative ads Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The General Election Campaign Electoral College Vote Winner must receive majority of electoral college’s 538 votes Number of electoral votes states receive Number of senators plus number of representatives Can change as a result of the official census Minimum votes is three Unit rule Winner take all system Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

The Electoral College Map This map of the states depicts the number of electoral votes each state has as a result of the 2010 U.S. Census. The states shaded in red are those states whose electoral votes were cast for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012. The blue states’ electoral votes went to Democrat Barack Obama. Source: http://www.270towin.com/ Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Americans’ Support Using Popular Vote to Select the President Source: Gallup polls conducted in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2011. Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Making a Vote Choice Candidate Familiarity Most basic voting cue is name recognition Party Identification Psychological attachment that affects voting Issue Voting Vote for someone who has same view on an issue Most sophisticated type of voting behavior Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Making a Vote Choice Retrospective Voting Evaluating an incumbent’s past performance Job approval rating Candidate Image Voting Perception of candidate to the voter Strong use of media Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Campaign Funding Funding is increasingly expensive One of the most important functions of campaign Good candidates have ability to raise money Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Fundraising by Presidential Candidates 1976-2008 Source: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/totals.php?cycle=2008 Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Campaign Funding Sources of Funding Individual citizens Interest groups Political action committees (PACs) Political parties House or Senate campaign war chest Federal and state governments Internet Personal wealth Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Campaign Funding In the 2008 Democratic nomination race, the Obama campaign perfected the art of the Internet fundraising. The site pictured here was used by the successful Obama to raise more than $100 million in small donations during that race. Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Campaign Funding Regulating Campaign Financing Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) Hard money Soft money Federal Election Commission (FEC) Independent campaign expenditures Supports the campaign but not a direct contribution Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) Regulates soft money Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Congressional Campaigns and Elections Presidential election years All 435 seats in the House and one-third of the Senate seats are contested Midterm congressional elections Midway between presidential elections All 435 House seats and another one-third of the Senate seats are contested Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Congressional Campaigns and Elections Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Congressional Campaigns and Elections Midterm elections Voter turnout tends to be lower No presidential coattail effect Favor candidates in party opposite the president’s Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Congressional Campaigns and Elections Power of incumbency Returned to office at high rates Name recognition Safe seats Marginal seats Franking privilege Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning Safe Seats in Congress Source: Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics 2005-2006 (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2006), 48-49. Copyright ©2006 CQ Press, a division of Sage Publications; updated by authors Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning