Global Governance of Phosphorus: Why So Misunderstood and the Mammoth Policy Gap? Arno Rosemarin PhD Nelson Ekane PhD (cand) Stockholm Environment Institute Sustainable Phosphorus Summit Montpellier Sept 2, 2014

Phosphorus: extremes that can confuse  pollutant causing algal blooms that can kill fish  a component of explosives and pesticides  a food additive causing problems for kidney patients  an essential element for all life to exist – bones and teeth and all living cells, tissue and organs  a key fertilizer to grow food and animal feed

Little progress on P governance  Common perception: Food & fertilizer have no limits  EU’s mammoth agro-subsidy (1 billion Euros/wk) creates false security – now fragile  No government will lead the dialogue – increases in food prices a political nightmare  Industry has taken a very low profile  UN is not pro-active  No geopolitical crisis yet like 1972 oil  Duncan Brown’s empty gas tank analogy still prevails

Overview of the talk  What are the components of the P value chain requiring governance?  How do we govern other minerals?  Where are we today on phosphorus governance?  Plotting a track ahead

P value chain – multiple components to govern  Rock phosphorus (apatite)  Sulfuric acid - 5 parts H 2 SO 4 give 3 parts H 3 PO 4 in the wet extraction process  Phosphorus products (MAP, DAP, SP, etc)  Agro and food system - soil, food and animal feed  Manure, excreta, solid waste

Sulphuric acid production Few countries have both P and S, requiring equity agreements

Soil P retention potential ISRIC, 2011 Soils vary and governance needs to be adapted

Phosphorus sustainability to be governed  Reduce Improved efficiency in mining and extraction Improved fertilizer use and technology Less consumption of meat and dairy products  Recycle Improved recycling of food production wastes, sludge, manure, struvite, polonite, etc.  Economic instruments and flexible fees Large users pay more tax fees than smaller users

How do we manage other minerals?

Towards more sustainable governance of extracted materials  EU Raw Materials Initiative  UNEP International Resource Panel (3Rs)  Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals, and Sustainable Development (IGF)  EU-US-Japan - developing substitutes, recycling & raw material and product efficiency  IEA global energy cooperation

Existing models to increase data transparency and collaboration  Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) of the IEF, contribution to transparency on the oil & gas markets  Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)  OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas  World Gold Council

UN independent study groups  create market transparency by providing data on production, consumption, trade, and prices & national policies eg environmental legislation Lead and Zinc (ILZSG) Copper (ICSG) Nickel (INSG)

Barriers to change  speculation & raw material cartels  national stockpiling  state companies  trade tariffs & quotas  lack of transparency revenue streams due diligence in supply chains

Where are we today on phosphorus governance?

Data governance of P rock extraction still lacking  P Rock Reserves/Resources (USGS) No UN agency involved Open to influence (IFDC 2010 report)  Fertilizer production and consumption (FAOstat)  Commercial sources of data (IFA, CRU, etc.)

Prior to 2010  USGS P-rock data showed peak P possible in years  IFDC 2010 report squelched peak phosphorus debate and Morocco “gets” global monopoly status  USGS changed its way of estimating commercial P reserves; resources can be commercial reserves  UNEP showed interest in the peak phosphorus debate but backed off

What happened since 2010  IFDC report heavily criticized by Dutch researchers in 2013  EU Sustainable Phosphorus Platform launched Interest in recycling P has intensified P on the EU Critical Raw Materials List  Moroccan OCP expanding rapidly now in order to meet future global demand

Geopolitics causing price hikes in phosphorus  Oil price increases due to conflicts (1973/2008)  China export embargo  P cartels  Northern Africa Morocco-Algeria conflicts Arab Awakening  Preferential free trade agreements with Morocco – eg US, India, EU P-Rock since 1960, World Bank

Terrorism in N Africa and the Sahel

The track ahead  White paper on phosphorus Building on the GPRI Blueprint for Global Phosphorus Security  Global conference and Global convention Transparency on data regarding P-rock extraction and trade Independent monitoring agency National reporting systems on use and reuse Best practices optimizing reuse Economic instruments promoting reuse & taxing waste Linkage to global food security strategies Communications programme

Stockholm Environment Institute