Swing seats: the General Election of 2015 Lewis Baston For 28 April 2015 update

The majority of individual seats are easy to predict

Marginals: what affects constituency results National (and Eng./ Wales) vote share/ lead Incumbency (Con hope) Ground game (Lab hope) Tactical votes UKIP and Green, and where the votes came from Local, sub- regional peculiarities, demographics

The first 40 Labour targets…

… and the next 40

Lib Dem v Conservative (wild cards excepted)

Lib Dem v Labour or Nationalist

London (Con 28, Lab 38, Lib Dem 7)

London 2015? Con 21 (18-26); Lab 47 (41-51) LD 5 (4-5); UKIP 0 (0-1)

London marginals GE 2010 lead % LA 2012 lead % LB 2014 lead %Ashcroft lead %My guess Westminster NorthLab 5Con 1Lab 9-Lab TootingLab 5Lab 1Lab 5-Lab ElthamLab 4Lab 7Lab 9-Lab Hampstead & KilburnLab 0Lab 4 Lab 17Lab HendonCon 0Lab 25Lab 1Lab 15Lab Brentford & IsleworthCon 4Lab 4Lab 12Lab 13Lab Enfield NorthCon 4Lab 5Lab 11Lab 10Lab Croydon CentralCon 6Con 0Lab 3Lab 4Lab Harrow EastCon 7Lab 7Con 4Lab 4Lab Ealing Central & ActonCon 8Con 9Lab 2Lab 6Lab Ilford NorthCon 12Con 2 -Lab BatterseaCon 12Con 20Con 12-Con Finchley & Golders GCon 12Lab 6Con 3Lab 2Con Enfield SouthgateCon 17Con 7Lab 2-Con

‘Big beasts’ on the edge of extinction Portillo moments?

Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfrewshire South)  8-11 points behind SNP in Ashcroft polls  Hard to see how he can win given the Scottish trends  Like Chris Patten, may end up with a national win for his campaign and a personal loss  Who is Foreign Secretary under Labour?

Jim Murphy (East Renfrewshire)  9 points behind in Ashcroft poll April, 1 ahead in January  Tactical votes might save him?  Terrifying prospect for Scottish Labour to lose: Jim the last throw of the dice?

Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam)  Consistently slightly behind in constituency polling  Are the Conservatives really trying in Hallam?  VERY hard to imagine Labour winning in this very affluent constituency.  But it has to be taken seriously (even if I think he will hold on…)  Impact on negotiations after election?

The prediction, and the remaining uncertainty

Maybe?Maybe not Do campaigns matter?  Lots of undecided voters  Weak attachment of people to parties and voting  People take inconsistent views e.g. on leadership, party, which issues matter  ‘Ground campaign’ and incumbency matter  Why do they hardly ever matter (except for 1992)?  Not even any proper debates this time  Even Farage, Clegg known quantities  No new arguments  Polls haven’t moved suddenly for ages

Overall predictions 2010L’brokesE. F’castGuardianLSB Con Lab LD UKIP SNP Other GB Other NI18

Prediction points NOBODY is predicting a majority Lab and LD do better in seat by seat work Con and SNP do better in ‘global’ prediction Nobody expects a working majority for a 2- party coalition Predictions have converged

Who will be tenant of 10 Downing Street?

PROBABLY Ed…

Black Swan territory? Poll error? Campaign effect? We’re factoring it in a bit. Late swing Stronger than usual incumbency Collapse in UKIP and/or Greens? Con running out of time…

The Conservative ‘Event Horizon’ Majority 326 (323) Coalition 2010: 363 DUP 8-10UKIP? 50 bloc losses

The Conservative ‘Event Horizon’: 283 seats  Below this point forming a government is basically impossible (despite 22-seat lead over Labour).  Winning extra seats from Lib Dems or UKIP wouldn’t help; errors in minor parties will mostly self-cancel within blocs.  Getting above 283 doesn’t necessarily mean a Con government but would make it worth Cameron staying in Downing Street to see if it could be done. Lib Dems may not help.  I have Con 11 under the Event Horizon – within margin of error for any method.

Conclusion  Small (but non zero) chance of the campaign changing the situation, and if it does the Conservatives are the likely beneficiaries  A weak government, probably a Labour minority government  A second election?  A mess – but at least a mess with some talented new people starting their political careers…

Questions?