Tapered, Challenged, and Changed. (Does anyone remember Curtis Enis?) US Bank Outlook Forum December 9, 2014 Hart Hodges Western Washington University.

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Presentation transcript:

Tapered, Challenged, and Changed. (Does anyone remember Curtis Enis?) US Bank Outlook Forum December 9, 2014 Hart Hodges Western Washington University

Less Fiscal Drag Employment Gains Net Worth Rebound Real Disposable Income Rising Better Balance Sheets State and Local Finances Better Housing’s Unsteady Climb But! Global Growth Worries Intensified-Impacts Through Trade, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Commodity Prices Improved National Forecast

Questions & Themes Why the continued urbanization? – “The World is Flat”… Related: – Are we more urban or more rural? – Structural change, or just delayed growth? Getting behind aggregate and average figures – Population – Retail sales

Employment Growth: Why the Difference ?

Seattle

Copyright © 2014 Michael J. Parks Washington highlights: Above-average recent growth in key indicators, including employment, personal income, auto sales. Boeing backlog at nearly 9 years and still growing. Led by Amazon.com, Seattle-area economy powers ahead.

Copyright © 2014 Michael J. Parks Key risks for Washington: Global economic slowdown that could erode Boeing’s record backlog. Hard economic landing in China, Japan or Europe, or all three. Rising dollar and widened Panama Canal erode export competitiveness

Looking Back… Seattle B’Ham

Factors to Consider Larger industry trends Population Number and concentration of jobs in an area – Agglomeration (place matters) Wealth ? – Mobility – The freedom/ability to make lifestyle choices

Larger Industry Trends Two industry sectors accounted for 45.2 percent of the net job growth over the last two years Professional & Technical Services Leisure & Hospitality The geography of this job growth has been uneven, with significant implications for wage growth

Prof and Business Services Seattle B’Ham

Population Variations in population growth in different regions Different regions appear to have different key cohorts – year olds in King County – year olds in Whatcom County

Average Annual Percent Change – King Skagit Whatcom Variation in Population Growth

Immigration and Emigration Cohort Etc

Cohort Differences

Economic trends and demographics Seattle

Wealth ?

No Recovery in Construction

Copyright © 2014 Michael J. Parks

Percent of JobsSeattle Wage Premium King+Whatcom Software Developers, Applications 4.5 (48,400 jobs) 0.4 (255 jobs) $28,500 Retail Salesperson Cashiers Food Prep & Serv (including Fast Food) Computer Programmers1.30.4$34,500 Market Research Specialists1.00.3$25,000 Computer & Info System Mngrs $46,800 Wage Growth Depends on Job Mix

Retail

2015 Employment – up ~1.5% – Assuming continued strength nationally with lower oil prices and other factors (risks to the downside) – Still trailing Seattle Population – slight increase in growth rate (~1%) Retail Sales – up 2-3% – Rising slightly with population and employment; also more even in distribution Unemployment – continued slow decline Wages – up 3% – Assuming stronger job growth in Prof. & Tech Services

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