How to calculate seasonal index Pick time period (number of years) Pick season period (month, quarter) Calculate average price for season Calculate average.

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Presentation transcript:

How to calculate seasonal index Pick time period (number of years) Pick season period (month, quarter) Calculate average price for season Calculate average price over time Divide season average by over time average price x 100

Sioux Falls Cull Cow Prices JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual Average Mon/Yr

Using Seasonal Index to Forecast Observe price in time t 1 P 1 Forecast price in time t 2 P 2 Start with P 1 / I 1 = P 2 / I 2 Then P 1 x I 2 / I 1 = P 2 Assume that cows are selling at $50/cwt in November. What is the forecast of February?