ISPI Energy Watch Energy security and the Visegrad countries Università degli Studi di Bologna – Sede di Forlì 28 th May 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per.

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ISPI Energy Watch Energy security and the Visegrad countries Università degli Studi di Bologna – Sede di Forlì 28 th May 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale - Milano

ISPI Energy Watch G LOBAL CONTEXT

ISPI Energy Watch Mtoe G LOBAL CONTEXT : ENERGY CONSUMPTION Source: elaboration on IEA.

ISPI Energy Watch Mtoe Source: elaboration on IEA. G LOBAL CONTEXT : ENERGY MIX

ISPI Energy Watch I NTRO / E NERGY SOURCES S OURCE PROCONTRA coal - availability - costs - local emissions - GHG emissions oil - calorific value - existing stock of technology - costs - GHG emissions - concentration of reserves natural gas - costs - GHG emissions - concentration of reserves nuclear - reliability of supply - GHG emissions - duality - investment costs - dismantling costs - social issues renewables - reliability of supply - GHG emissions - costs - discontinuity of supply

ISPI Energy Watch E UROPEAN CONTEXT

ISPI Energy Watch V ISEGRAD COUNTRIES

ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY CONSUMPTION 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY CONSUMPTION 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY CONSUMPTION : TRENDS Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY INTENSITY Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and World Bank online (World Development Indicators).

ISPI Energy Watch I MPORT DEPENDENCE Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY MIX RES include waste – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY MIX AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE IN THE V ISEGRAD COUNTRIES

ISPI Energy Watch P OLAND : ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch P OLAND : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence: 28% Mtoe

ISPI Energy Watch P OLAND : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [DS ]. GDP:526 bn€Total imports:166 bn €

ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence: 26% Mtoe

ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [DS ]. GDP:209 bn€Total imports:115 bn €

ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : THE ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence:55% Mtoe

ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [DS ]. GDP:133 bn€Total imports:79 bn €

ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : THE ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence: 63% Mtoe

ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. GDP:98 bn€Total imports:62 bn €

ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS MARKETS IN THE V ISEGRAD COUNTRIES

ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION 2013 – Source: elaboration on JODI Gas. Bcm EU total consumption: 463 Bcm

ISPI Energy Watch

EU: ENERGY MIX AND NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS : IMPORT ROUTE DIVERSIFICATION Source: ENTSOG.

ISPI Energy Watch

P OLAND : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mix natural gas supply

ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

ISPI Energy Watch

R USSIAN NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES TO E UROPE

ISPI Energy Watch

Entry point daily maxyearly max (Mmc)(Bmc) Ukrainian system Slovakia Romania Hungary 5518 Poland 124 Nord StreamGermany Yamal-EuropePoland Blue StreamTurkey 4916 otherFinland, Baltics 7224 total N ATURAL GAS : R USSIAN EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Yearly max based on a 90% utilisation factor – Source: elaboration on ENTSOG.

ISPI Energy Watch Gazprom Export Ukraine transit Ukraine transit transit /total Italy14,324,114,324,1100% Germany31,538,220,011,163%29% Cezch Rep.6,97,06,97,0100% Hungary5,05,75,05,7100% Slovak Rep.4,05,14,05,1100% Austria5,0 100% France7,67,82,93,038%39% Bulgaria2,42,62,42,6100% Greece2,42,52,42,5100% Romania2,11,12,11,1100% Slovenia0,5 100% other EU23,026,90,0 -- tot. EU104,7126,565,567,762%54% Turkey25,725,313,312,452%49% other Europe1,31,71,31,7100% tot. Europe131,7153,580,181,861%53% N ATURAL GAS : R USSIAN CUSTOMERS IN E UROPE Billiion cubic meters – Source: elaboration on GazpromExport, Eurostat, Eurogas, BP and Pirani (2014).

ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS : EU DEMAND DECLINE Bcm Source: elaboration on European Commission.

ISPI Energy Watch

2014 – Source: UNCTAD, FT, IMF, BBC, EBRD. N ATURAL GAS : DEPENDENCE ON ENERGY PRODUCTION

ISPI Energy Watch R ENEWABLE E NERGY S OURCES, EU TARGETS AND THE V ISEGRAD C OUNTRIES

ISPI Energy Watch currenttargetdelta in p.p. EU14,1%20,0%5,9 Germany 12,4%18,0% 5,6 Italy 13,5%17,0% 3,5 Poland 11,0%15,0% 4,0 Slovak Rep. 10,4%14,0% 3,6 Czech Rep. 11,2%13,0% 1,8 Hungary 9,6%13,0% 3,4 R ENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES TARGETS AT – Source: Eurostat [nrg_ind_335a].

ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS : EXPECTED TRENDS Mt CO 2

ISPI Energy Watch GHG EMISSIONS : COP-21 COMMITMENTS EU: 40% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to China: peak of emissions in 2030, wihtout any quantitative commitment. USA: 26-28% emission reduction commitment by 2025 compared to India: no commitment on emissions; perspective increase of taxation on coal. Russia: 25-30% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to Japan: 20% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to 2005.

ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS / EU AND THE REST OF THE W ORLD

ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS / EU AND THE REST OF THE W ORLD Mt CO 2

ISPI Energy Watch

Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) – Milano blog: linkedin:Linkedin.com/in/matteoverda C ONTACTS

ISPI Energy Watch T HANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION