Impact of Climate Change on The Nile Delta Region Adaptation Planning: An Early Warning Analysis Prof. Mohamed El Raey University of Alexandria Alexandria, Egypt 6/9/20151Prof. El Raey

Outline Recent evidences of climatic changes have prompt worldwide action for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. However, it was well recognized that mitigation measures are not enough and that proactive adaptation is necessary for all sectors of development. 1.Vulnerabilities of various sectors of development in the Nile delta region to potential impacts with special reference to coastal zone are discussed 2.The analogy of with disaster accidents and the need for proper utilization of the early warning is necessary 3.An early warning monitoring system for proper assessment and decision support in the face of widespread evidence of climate impacts is necessary for proper identification of hot spots and disaster reduction planning. Policies for long term adaptations and capacity building needs in Egypt are investigated 6/9/2015Prof. El Raey2

Average Global Temperature Variations 6/9/20153Prof. El Raey

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Contribution and Impacts of Egypt 1.Egypt contributes about 0.6% of world greenhouse gases and has signed Kyoto Protocol and has adopted cleaner technology mechanisms (CDM) for development 2.Impacts on water resources due to changes of precipitation rates, transfer through River Nile and increasing consumption rates 3.Impacts on agriculture production due to changes of agricultural zones and impacts of increasing heat waves 4.Impacts on coastal zone due to sea level rise, salt water intrusion and higher order impacts on water, agriculture and all other sectors 5.Impacts on economics and health due to increase of dust storms intensities and frequencies 6.Impacts on all other sectors of development which lead to increasing unemployment rates, increasing poverty and migration of unemployed population 6/9/20155Prof. El Raey

Stern Report The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response. Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen. From all of these perspectives, the evidence gathered by the Review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs. The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed - the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. And if and when the damages appear it will be too late to reverse the process. Thus we are forced to look a long way ahead. 6/9/20156Prof. El Raey

Early Warning Systems ا.د. الراعى

Impacts on Suez Canal 6/9/2015Prof El Raey8

6/9/2015Prof. El Raey Problems of the Coastal Zone of Egypt 1.Highly populated economic centers 2.Increasing human activities and Pollution 3.Shortage of institutional capabilities in general and integrated monitoring and management capabilities in particular 4.Land subsidence, erosion and accretion 5.Loss of resources, habitats and biodiversity 6.Salt water intrusion, waterlogging and waterbogging 7.Shortage of fresh water resources 8.Uncontrolled urban development and lack of awareness 9.Impact of climate change and risk of sea level rise 9

Nile Delta Land subsidence (Stanley et al,1993) 6/9/2015Prof. El Raey10

Nile Delta Measured Subsidence (Frihy,2003) 6/9/201511Prof. El Raey

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Low Land Areas South East of Alexandria 6/9/201513Prof. El Raey

Damage at the coast 6/9/201514Prof. El Raey

Dust storms and heat waves will increase in intensity and frequency causing a lot of damage to economic and health in the region Prof. El Raey6/9/201515

Time Series of Aerosols Changes over Nile Delta Region ا.د. الراعى

Gradual Landfilling of Lake Maryut ا.د. الراعى

6/9/2015Prof. El Raey Specific Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Zone of Egypt 1.Impact due to direct flooding sea level rise 2.Impact due to salt water intrusion 3.Impacts due to increasing soil salinity and potential degradation of productivity 4.Impacts on the coastal ecosystem and resources 5.Direct and indirect impacts on socioeconomic sectors leading to migration of population 18

Classified satellite image of Alexandria 6/9/201519Prof. El Raey

6/9/2015Prof. El Raey Potential socioeconomic impact due to SLR at Alexandria (El Raey et al,1995 and El Raey,1997) Year Sector2010 SLR = 18 CM 2025 SLR= 30 CM 2050 SLR= 50 CM Area loss (km 2 ) Population displaced x Loss of employment a- Agriculture b-Tourism c- Industry Total loss of Employment

Socioeconomic Impacts on Alexandria City 1.Quantitative estimation of approximate loss due to inundation for three scenarios of SLR has been estimated in case of no action. 2.The most vulnerable sectors are the population, services and industry. Losses may reach above 60 % of these sectors for a SLR of 50 cm. 3.The order of socioeconomic losses for each sector may be different, however, again the potential losses are very high and may reach loss of 195,000 jobs in Alexandria only by the middle of this century. Over a million of low income people have to move away from these low land areas. 4.Losses in other vulnerable economic centers should also be estimated. Cultural and world heritage losses are unaccounted for. 5.Indirect economic and health losses due to salt water intrusion, soil salinization and loss of land productivity are still to be assessed. 6/9/201521Prof. El Raey

Vulnerability of Matruh 6/9/201522Prof. El Raey

6/9/2015M. El Raey23 Vulnerability of Marina City 1.0m SLR

Beaches of Marina City 6/9/201524Prof. El Raey

6/9/2015Prof. El Raey Other Vulnerable Aspects Coastal front Sinai, Lake Bardwil, Damitetta low areas Impact on Lake Nasser and River Nile flow Harbors, navigational and land losses Groundwater and salt water intrusion Coral reef and sea grass on the Red Sea Agricultural Resources and biodiversity Human health and socioeconomic systems Lake ecosystems and fisheries Natural and archeological heritage sites and tourism 25

Sudden Climatic Hazards and Risks The IPCC states that climate change is “indisputable" and may bring "abrupt and irreversible" impacts. Global Sudden fall of ice masses in the polar region may cause sudden sea level rise Increasing rates and frequencies of extreme events of sand storms, and marine storms Local Flooding of low land area south east of Alexandria and/or south of Port Said Flash floods, Tsunamis, marine and heat waves over highly populated areas 6/9/2015Prof. El Raey26

Comparison of Impacts of Climate Changes and Earthquakes AspectEarthquakesClimate Change ExtensionRegional/LocalizedGlobal DurationSuddenGradual for Tens of years Economic, Human LossesThousands of people, 10$B Millions 100$B CharacteristicsClearHidden and gradual ImpactsUrban, human and refugees All sector and refugees Early warningMinutes/hoursYears/Decades 6/9/2015Prof. El Raey27

World Bank Comparison ا.د. الراعى

World Bank Comparison ا.د. الراعى

6/9/2015Prof. El Raey Facing Challenges of Climate Change 1.Mitigation a.Egypt contributes 0.57% of the world greenhouse gases 2.Vulnerability assessment a.Identifying vulnerable sites and sectors b.Carrying out vulnerability assessment 3.Proactive Adaptation a.Building regional models, identifying scenarios, options and criteria b.Selecting most suitable options based on the precautionary principle c.Develop institutional capabilities for implementing and follow up 30

6/9/2015Prof. El Raey Preliminary Investigation of Adaptation Options Analysis indicate that the open options are : Short Term Options 1.Hard structures and beach nourishment 2.Sand dune fixation 3.Change of land use 4.Enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments Long Term Strategic Options 1.Setting plans of development in high land areas 2.Integrated Coastal Zone planning and Management 3.Establishment of a greenbelt 4.Change of land use (Rice and aquaculture) 5.Development of institutional capabilities in monitoring and assessment; 6.Creating job opportunities in resilient areas and Upgrading awareness 31

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Required Plans 1.Integrating climate change impacts with national strategic impact assessments 2.Enforcing laws and regulation and upgrading awareness 3.Land use plans of development especially for cities of concern 4.Greenbelts and its role/ ICZM 5.Monitoring indicators and Availability of data 6/9/2015Prof. El Raey33

Policy and Institutional Recommendations 1.Establishment of a Regional Center of Crisis Management for the Arab Region with particular orientation towards Climate Change among other conflicts 2.Building up national capacities on adaptation to climate change with particular disaster reduction, early warning systems, law enforcement and follow up 3.Working to accommodate migration from low land vulnerable areas by proper planning and follow up 4.Adopting strategic assessments with a component for climate change and working to create job opportunities in non-conflict areas 6/9/201534Prof. El Raey