Stanford Blyth Fund FICC Group Current Holdings Review -------------------------------- ---------- DBC -------------------------------- ----------- Harrison.

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Presentation transcript:

Stanford Blyth Fund FICC Group Current Holdings Review DBC Harrison Caruthers Jaewoo Jang John Solitario Kuno Choi Sen Lin

PowerShares DB Commodities (DBC) 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review SymbolPriceQuantity Price Paid Total GainMarket Value DBC$ $ $ | % $

Relative Performance to Benchmarks 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review DBC has generally underperformed the market over the past 3 years, though it has done better than other commodities tracking indices, such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index. source:

ETF Component Weightings 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review SectorWeight Oil & Gas45.31% Agricultura l Softs27.14% Gold & Silver13.65% Base Metals9.04% Miscellaneo us4.86% Total100% Listed February 3, 2006, DBC follows movements in the commodities market with a heavy emphasis on crude oil and other energy-related commodities. It tracks the DB Commodities Index. DBC Current Portfolio SummaryDBC by Weighting

Correlation Analysis 1 DBC highly correlated with Brent Crude at 0.90 over 5 years Further holding onto DBC akin to a long directional bet on oil source: professional/etfs/tools/correlation-analyzer 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review

Correlation Analysis 2 Moderate to high degree of inter-correlation between ETF components. All are inversely correlated to value of USD against basket of foreign currencies. Not significantly hedged. Heavy weighted correlation with oil & gas instruments. source: 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review

Thesis : Sell at Target Price $20 FICC recommends unwinding DBC position at target price $20. Following the recession, DBC peaked at $30 with oil prices above $100 in Previous highs not expected. Short-Medium outlook for oil markets bearish due to due to changing fundamentals. No strong directional opinion agricultural commodities or precious metals among members, hence no edge. 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review

Exogenous Shocks Crude Oil : US-led advances in shale oil make scaling production cheap and fast. Upside potential limited. US dollar strength. General downward pressure on commodity prices. Chinese factory output stagnant. Copper and Aluminum demand hinges on industrial production. Soft (agricultural) commodities : no trending, no edge. Downturn persistent since end of commodities super-cycle. 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review

Arguments Against OPEC raises prices / cuts output US shale producers closing Value-Approach investment strategy (oversold) Portfolio Diversification. 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review

Thoughts? 02/18/2015FICC Group Current Holdings Review