ACM 97 Computing Alternatives Joel Birnbaum Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Director, HP Labs

ACM 97 THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

ACM 97 Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to: THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

ACM 97 James Burke Master of Ceremonies

ACM 97

JOEL BIRNBAUM

ACM 97

Computing Alternatives Joel Birnbaum Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Director, HP Labs

ACM 97

Quantum Computing DNA-based Computing Optical Computing Three Alternatives

ACM 97 ENIAC Circa 1947 Source: U.S. Army photo

ACM 97 ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics 19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004) Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics) 1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts

ACM 97

ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics 19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004) Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics) 1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts

ACM 97

Moore’s Law Date Transistors per Chip Pentium Pentium Pro ?

ACM 97

Moore’s Law Date Transistors per Chip Pentium Pentium Pro ?

ACM 97

Vanishing Electrons Date Electrons per Device M 64M 256M 1G 4G 16G Transistors per Chip Source: Motorola ?

ACM 97

Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si) Length (microns) Height (nm) 0.8 Average Height: 15nm Standard Dev.: <1nm Density: 6.4 x 10 9 /cm 2 Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative

ACM 97

Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si) Length (microns) Height (nm) 0.8 Average Height: 15nm Standard Dev.: <1nm Density: 6.4 x 10 9 /cm 2 Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative

ACM 97

Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si) Length (microns) Height (nm) 0.8 Average Height: 15nm Standard Dev.: <1nm Density: 6.4 x 10 9 /cm 2 Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative

ACM 97

Computational Complexity Input Size L Execution Time Exp(L) LnLn L Exp NP P Efficiency of an algorithm depends on how its execution time grows as the size of the problem (input) increases... Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

ACM 97

Difficulty in Factoring Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10 L The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N 1/2 Number of divisions required: N 1/2 = 10 L/2 Grows Exponentially with L If a computer can perform divisions per second, factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method takes seconds, much longer than the age of the universe (10 17 seconds) Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

ACM 97

Difficulty in Factoring Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10 L The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N 1/2 Number of divisions required: N 1/2 = 10 L/2 Grows Exponentially with L If a computer can perform divisions per second, factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method takes seconds, much longer than the age of the universe (10 17 seconds) Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

ACM 97

Difficulty in Factoring Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10 L The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N 1/2 Number of divisions required: N 1/2 = 10 L/2 Grows Exponentially with L If a computer can perform divisions per second, factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method takes seconds, much longer than the age of the universe (10 17 seconds) Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

ACM 97

The Traveling Salesman Problem: To find the shortest path from start to end going through all the points only once Source: Dr. Leonard M. Adleman

ACM 97 Step 1: Generate random pathsRandomly ligate together pieces of DNA DNA Ligase

ACM 97

Step 2: Keep only paths starting with 0 and ending with 6 Use the Polymerase Chain Reaction PCR

ACM Step 3: PAGE Keep only paths that enter exactly 7 vertices Separate the PCR products by PAGE

ACM 97 Step 4: Affinity Purification Keep only paths that enter all 7 vertices at least once Isolate DNA by sequential affinity purification

ACM 97

Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor Laser Collimating Lens Spatial Light Modulator Output Plane Digital To Computer Digital From Computer Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Optical System

ACM 97

Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor Laser Collimating Lens Spatial Light Modulator Output Plane Digital To Computer Digital From Computer Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Optical System

ACM 97

Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor Laser Collimating Lens Spatial Light Modulator Output Plane Digital To Computer Digital From Computer Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Optical System

ACM 97

The Future: Communicate with Photons, but Compute with Electrons

ACM 97

JOEL BIRNBAUM