ROADMAP FOR FINALISING SOUTH AFRICA’S INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE MARCH 2015

UNFCCC DECISION – 1CP20 Reiterates the invitation to communicate to the Secretariat its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) towards achieving Article 2 of the Convention Agrees that each Party’s INDC will represent a progression beyond the current undertaking of the Party Parties to consider communicating their undertakings in adaptation planning or consider including an adaptaiton component in their INDC Communicate INDCs well in advance of COP 21 (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so) Information to be provided may include ……. Requests the secretariat to: (i) publish INDCs on UNFCCC website; (ii) prepare by 1 Nov 2015 a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the INDCs communicated by Parties by 1 Oct 2015

Framework for SA’s INDC Single submission covering adaptation & mitigation Table of contents: South Africa’s socio-economic and development context and priorities Overview of: – SA’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (based on the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios) – SA’s greenhouse gas emissions profile (based on 2000 – 2012 ghg inventory), and an overview of high profile programmes that have been implemented to reduce South Africa’s emissions

Adaptation elements of INDC Overview of likely impacts in key sectors (water, agriculture, health, biodiversity, human settlements) under different global ghg emission scenarios: short, medium and long term (based on Longterm Adaptation Scenarios) Overview of economic implications of these impacts Portfolio of adaptation programmes:5 – 10 years Quantified review of adaptation investments made in the last 5 years

Mitigation elements of the INDC Confirmation of South Africa’s commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 34% and 42% against BAU emissions by 2020 and 2025 respectively Desired emission reduction outcomes and carbon budgets will be designed so annual emissions fall within the PPD; Aiming for the midpoint of the PPD range Designing a system to implement the PPD range, with 5 year cycles of 2016 – 2020; 2021 – 2025; 2026 – 2030; 2031 – 2035;

Technical work – for consultation process Concurrent with consultation process on the design of the emission reduction system This requires finalisation of technical work on design of emission reduction system, including “design of c-budgets” and alignment with carbon tax, including agreement with Treasury.

INDC Consultation process Feb 2015: Engagement with Business and other Stakeholders on discussion documents on: (i) mix of measures / instruments to achieve emission reductions; (ii) design of desired emission reduction outcomes; (iii) carbon budget design Mar 2015: -Briefing with Portfolio Committee on report back from COP 20 (Lima), preparatory process for COP 21 (Paris) and roadmap for SA’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) -meeting with National Committee on Climate Change to present: (i) report back from COP 20 Lima; (ii) overall approach to SA INDC; (iii) preparatory process for COP 21 Paris -Discussion with Business on: (i) report from COP 20 Lima; (ii) overall approach to SA INDC; (iii) preparatory process for COP 21 Paris -Focused meetings with stakeholder groups on the design of the emission reduction system (including carbon budgets / carbon tax alignment, regulations on GHG pollution prevention plans in term of the Air Quality Act (AQA); and regulations on reporting of GHG emissions ito AQA (continues to May 2015)

INDC Consultation Process (2) April 2015: -Finalisation of discussion document on SA intended nationally determined contribution -Discussion with key government departments on the emission reduction system (DTI, DOT, EDD, DMR, DOE) May 2015: -Briefing for Portfolio Committee on Environmental Affairs -Focused meetings with stakeholder groups on the SA’s INDC -Presentation of emission reduction system to Economic Cluster June 2015: Further stakeholder engagement (at provincial level) on preparations for COP 21, status of negotiations; key elements of SA’s position, and SA’s INDC