Overview of CPC and The Winter Outlook Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November, 2010

Ongoing CPC Activities La Niña Winter Outlook Outline

CPC Mission National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankingsNational temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankings Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate)Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate) Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labsForecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of ProductsIntegral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. Temperature Outlook

Climate Prediction Products Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) Monthly ENSO Prediction * Dynamical Models Climate Forecast System Global Forecast System ECMWF Tools used to develop prediction products Dynamical Models Statistical Models Historical Analogs Historical Composites

Day Outlook Washington Below: 32% Near: 36% Above: 32% N S. Nevada Below: 7% Near: 33% Above: 60% N C. Texas Below: 17% Near: 33% Above: 50% Maine Below: 33% Near: 33% Above: 33% Seasonal

6 Drought Outlook

Climate Monitoring Products Daily and monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters and compilation of data on historical and current atmospheric and oceanic conditions –Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) –Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) –Storm Tracks and Blocking –Monsoons –Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) –Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) –Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Niño Region SST Departures ( o C) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño ºC Niño ºC Niño ºC Niño ºC

9 Drought Monitor Interagency Partners: NWS/CPC USDA/JAWF NDMC NCDC Outside Experts: USGS State Climos RCCs NWS Hydros Posted on the Internet every Thursday morning NewspapersTV Stations Government officials Public

Climate Assessment Products Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis –Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web) –ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD) –Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web) –Seasonal Climate Summaries (web) –Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web) –Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin) –Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

11 ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (State of Tropical Pacific) La Niña is expected to last at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter

Hazards Assessment

Selected Other Climate Services at CPC Joint Agriculture Weather Facility USDA – DOC partnership –Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin –Briefings & Weather Summaries on global weather and crop conditions CPC International Desks Professional development training to African Meteorologists WMO partnership for regional and global activities Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring Contribute to USAID Asian Flood Network Training Coverage in Africa

14 Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration) Forecast tool development / improvementClimate monitoring tool development / improvementClimate model diagnostics and evaluationUnderstanding atmospheric and oceanic predictabilityUnderstanding climate trendsWeather / climate linksAttribution of climate anomaliesDrought / floods and other extreme eventsStatistical / Dynamical Downscaling  Regional Climate Information

La Niña and Seasonal Outlook

Niño Region SST Departures ( o C) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño ºC Niño ºC Niño ºC Niño ºC

Since May 2010, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have dominated the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The most recent pattern of subsurface temperature anomalies is similar to those observed since mid September Sub-Surface Temperature Departures ( o C) in the Equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Longitude Time

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 November 2010). Nearly all models indicate that La Niña (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies -0.5°C or less) will persist at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring Just over half of the models indicate La Niña will strengthen further and peak during the Northern Hemisphere early Winter

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 14 November 2010 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Niña conditions into Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.

The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle. TemperaturePrecipitatio n U. S. Seasonal Outlooks December February 2011

U. S. Drought Outlook valid through February 2011

U.S. Temperature Departures (°C) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.

U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.

U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Mar. - May

25 Temperature and Precipitation Distribution MEAN Extreme Events + Extreme Events - Realm of most Common events # EVENTS many few

26 December – February Precipitation and Temperature Distribution Box-Whisker Web Page: Southern GA/Northern FL Strong tilt toward warm and dry

27 January – March Precipitation and Temperature Distribution Box-Whisker Web Page: Southern GA/Northern FL

28 March-May Precipitation and Temperature Distribution Box-Whisker Web Page: Southern GA/Northern FL

Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters

CPC Consolidation

Advancing Climate Prediction: The Climate Test Bed Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities 31 Mission To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services Mission To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R) Focus Areas –CFS Improvements –Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems –Climate Forecast Products Competitive Grants Program CTB Seminar Series CPC/CTB - RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R) Focus Areas –CFS Improvements –Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems –Climate Forecast Products Competitive Grants Program CTB Seminar Series CPC/CTB - RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program