Poli 103A California Politics Redistricting and Diversity Midterm in one week, May 3rd nia.edu/ More jobs posted Check Racial & Ethnic edition

Redistricting and Californian Diversity The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting Rules of the game Rules of thumb Can we judge redistricting plans? Diverse Society, Diverse Politics? Why is California so diverse? Does diversity add up to diverse politics?

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game After each census (2000, 1990,..) new congressional, state Senate, and state Assembly districts drawn because: CA always gets more seats in Congress. Old districts no longer = in population. Plan must pass Senate and Assembly with simple majorities and be signed by the governor, requiring compromise.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game If elected officials fail to reach an agreement, redistricting passes to the State Supreme Court, which may appoint “Special Masters.” The federal Voting Rights Act of 1965 allows affected voters to sue if the voting power of racial and ethnic minorities is diluted when lines drawn with discriminatory intent and effect.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of Thumb There is often a trade-off between making incumbents safe and getting more seats for the party in power. A plan that makes incumbents safe (less responsive ) packs lots of their supporters together in a district. A plan that helps a party win more seats than it has voters (more biased ) needs to spread around just enough supporters.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of Thumb There is sometimes a trade-off between increasing minority voting power and helping Democrats. Latino and African-American voters tend to live in areas heavily populated by Democrats. A district that is 55% African-American is likely to be 85% Democratic, leaving fewer voters to spread around.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of Thumb There is a trade-off between having competitive seats and all of these other goals: You’d have to draw lines from Rancho Santa Fe to National City to make seats competitive. This could erode minority voting rights, since minorities live in heavily Democratic areas. If all seats had party margins within 7% points, as Schwarzengger proposed, Democrats might win them all (which is why DeLay is worried). You’d get responsiveness at the price of bias.

Can We Judge Redistricting Plans? J. Morgan Kousser argues that plans should be judged by their predicted partisan effects, not by the process by which they are created. Since political dynamics change after a plan is written (Watergate, Gingrich revolution), statistics provide us with the best way to judge plans.

Can We Judge Redistricting Plans? Kousser’s method uses a regression to see how increasing Republican registration by 1% will affect the vote for a Republican candidate. Predicts about 98% of races. Allows us to compare how many seats each party is expected to win at the time a plan is drawn.

Diverse Society, Diverse Politics? Why is California So Diverse

Diverse Society, Diverse Politics? Why is California So Diverse? It’s not because California has been particularly welcoming. It’s because California is an economic magnet. Successive waves of economic boom which attracted immigrant labor, followed by a bust that resulted in a political backlash.

Diverse Society, Diverse Politics? Why is California So Diverse? 200,000 Chinese immigrants after the Gold Rush made this group 10% of California’s population Chinese Exclusion Act stopped immigration and led to deportation. 300,000 “Okies” fled dustbowl for California’s farm fields in Depression. Glut of workers led to discrimination.

Diverse Society, Diverse Politics? Why is California So Diverse? “Great Migration” of blacks from rural South to WWII factories led to a 400% increase in CA’s black population. Housing laws allowed discrimination and segregation Immigration and Nationality Act ended national origin quotas and opened the door to Latin American and Asian immigration.

Diverse Society, Diverse Politics? Why is California So Diverse? Source:

Diverse Society, Diverse Politics? Does diversity add up to diverse politics?

In 1990, Latinos were 26% of California’s population, 15% of eligible voters, 10% of registered voters, but just 6% of actual voters in June primary. (Citrin & Campbell, p. 287)

Discussion Questions What are the barriers that lead to each of the drop-offs between Latino population and Latino voting? Which goals are most important in a redistricting system? Competition Partisan proportionality Minority voting rights Compactness and continguity