Revolution in Military Affairs PPA National Defense November 13/14, 2000

Perspectives on RMA u Revolution doesn’t exist -- future construct will look like the present u The Revolution arrived -- Gulf War u This is the middle of the Revolution -- “system of systems” u The Micro Revolution -- info systems will dominate all other variables u Continuous Revolution -- technology renders all things obsolete continuously

RMA Hypothesis u Capabilities are more important than geopolitics u “strategic pause” -- conditions have changed u Holding pattern or transformation? u significant adjustment in time or space assumptions can constitute an RMA

Hypothesis (cont) u RMA assumed to be “synergistic” u positive interaction of forces/elements to produce a more desirable outcome u “Whigs “ and “Calvinists” u adaptation -- range of competence required to use new technology u “defining event” usually required to determine if RMA occurred

The Revolution in Military Affairs: Intellectual Origins u The military historians u Soviet writings in the late 1970’s and 1980’s -- “The Military Technical Revolution” u The Gulf War u Admiral Owens and the “System of Systems”

Questions u Is there a revolution? u What drives warfare? u What are the policy challenges? u What are the greatest threats?

Four American Views Owens II The Uncertain Revolutionary The Gulf War Vet The Skeptic

#1 Owens II “Build the System of Systems” u a single revolution resulting from employment of information technologies u most of warfare has been wasted motion because of uncertainty u utilize the array of available systems to improve space awareness & employ forces u “the enemy is us” -- service parochialism and bureaucratic inertia

#2 The Uncertain Revolutionary “Let a hundred flowers bloom” u One in a series of revolutions u Revolutionary change occurs from a mixture of technology, organization, and operational concepts u Challenges are experimentation and innovation u Threats are (1) diffusion of technology; (2) peer competitor

#3 The Gulf War Veteran “Been there, done that” u The revolution occurred in the 1980s u Recruitment and training make all the difference u Challenge is developing new technology while keeping an adequate force structure u Threats are asymmetric responses (terror, weapons of mass destruction)

#4 The Skeptic “What revolution?” u The history of warfare is a history of evolution u Human nature, not technology, drives warfare u The challenge is keeping the warrior spirit alive in the face of social change u The danger of being too clever

Consequences Owens II: radical cuts in force structure and organizational surgery; make the current technologies work together Cautious Revolutionaries: experimentation; organizational and educational reform; incrementalism Gulf War Veterans: emphasis on readiness and training & current technologies > Skeptics: continue the current strategy and see what world changes occur

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