Feasibility of Wedge Options Team Simple Green January 27, 2009

End Use Efficiency Decreasing end energy use by 25% through installation of programmable thermostats, basic weatherization if needed, and attic insulation - High feasibility, very attractive cost/benefit ratio Most striking merit is payback time of investment: - For typical home, material + installation costs will not exceed $2,000. At 25% reduction in energy use, typical payback time (without any incentives) will be less than 2 years This is a no-brainer - There are no relative weaknesses to this initiative

Cap-and-Trade Air Travel Today: 0.5 billion tons CO 2 /year Projections for 2050 range from 0.8 to 5.3 billion tons CO 2 /year –Mid-range projection = 2.7 billion tons CO 2 /year Merits: –For mid-range projection, 20% reduction in air travel could reduce CO 2 emissions by 0.5 billion tons/year –Government revenue generation through sales transactions Weaknesses: –Deciding number of credits and how distributed –Could limit economic growth –Political resistance to implementation

Vehicle Efficiency Increase fuel economy from 30 to 60 MPG Expected increase from one billion to two billion cars Maintain travel of 10,000 miles/year Merits: –Maintain level of CO 2 emissions –25 billion tons CO 2 emissions reduced Weaknesses: –Enabling all countries to mandate MPG increases Effective Year MPG Standard

Increase Wind Power 40-Fold Displace coal if accounts for 30% of peak power (on average) Increase world capacity from 94.1 GW to 3.76 TW Government-enforced mandates to utility companies to phase in TW of power generated by wind by 2056 Feasibility MeritsWeaknesses Clean, Free, Renewable Energy“Not in My Backyard” (NIMBY) Technology available at ever-decreasing prices Big investment by Utilities with support from government Commercially viable “hot spots” readily available across US and world (72TW) Temporary rise in consumer prices Technology already available at competitive prices NREL, 1986